1816 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 (edited) 1 hour ago, Wtkidz said: Holds same for the day…. What the. Not sure if that model run is drunk or I am Pt: Since this bad weather started, my wife hasn't stopped staring through the patio windows. If it gets any worse, I might have to let her in.. Edited January 31 by 1816 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 1 hour ago, Rickrd said: Wouldn't the water put them out though? OK, never mind. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 31 Moderators Share Posted January 31 1 hour ago, 1816 said: At least we're not cutting grass But the freakin mosquitos are still around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 31 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted January 31 @MaineJay The other day you mentioned AI.. and I mentioned that I use Graph Cast. Ryan Maue posted its performance.. and it looks like it outperforms the Euro and GFS. Not by much.. but interesting graphic nevertheless. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 NN (cool talk for Neg NAO) coming gang. Keep the faith. And where we want it. Wood city. And when it comes, i shall be even more annoying than i already am, if that is even possible 😎. No planes or ships will he allowed too far north. Phasing works actually. Storms move slower. Pretty millibar looks. Region wide opportunities . Suppression whines plentiful. Serious cutoffs. Backend snows. UT posts actually making sense. Late kicker vorts that always miss the kick. NAM goal post moving out of its sweet spot needle posts will abound. MJ giving one of his dendrite posts that no one fackin understands . Endless “ big ones always move north” posts. Clap brings back the legendary Clapper Tracker. PARD is positive , happy, content , and hasn’t cuffed the entire state. RT dusts off old, old speedo. Pimple ass, fat, sweaty SE ridge stuffed in the cooler. NEG NAO utopia baby!! Haven’t had one when we wanted it in years. 1 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 PP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 31 Admin Share Posted January 31 Wilmington NC disco. Quote LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A cold front slides through on Friday with just about zero moisture flux preceding its arrival. As such not only will its passage be rain-free but the small increase in cloud cover depicted in some guidance likely generous. A noticeable warmup will precede the front, afternoon temperatures winding up about 10 above climo. In its wake temperatures will be close to normal over the weekend with surface high pressure remaining centered north of the US/Canadian border and only a weak ridge axis poking into the SE (precluding strong CAA locally). The upper pattern will be featuring a bit of a squeeze play as upper ridge initially over western Great Lakes gets undercut by GOMEX jet and at the same time a large cutoff remains stationary off New England Coast. The Gulf system will have a surface reflection moving due east while what`s left of the ridge axis and the New England low work together to suppress its path to the south. Models are congealing on how this pans out though a few refinements seem likely it appears that a large gradient of both POPs and QPF are in store for the area late Sunday through Monday. This system also looks like a good setup for coastal flooding at area beaches for a few tide cycles coupled with some high surf and thus minor beach erosion, the latter hopefully minimized by a very small tidal range through the event. Previous thinking was that dry air would return by Tuesday but will hold on to low POPs as guidance trending slower, most notably the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LUCC Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 For giggles …. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Past 3 days Euro Ens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregRups Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 GFS is interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paletitsnow63 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 12Z GFS gets close. Eastern Mass gets in the game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paletitsnow63 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 12Z Snowmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 31 Moderators Share Posted January 31 Oh boy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 (edited) 12 Z GFS to my untrained eye the high pressure days you can come north but I want to bring cold air. Then high pressure says I was just kidding about coming north. Along the coast. Edited January 31 by Wtkidz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregRups Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 12z CMC came north as well. Not as far as GFS a nice start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 (edited) vibes Trivia -what do Babe Ruth Ronald Reagan Bob Marley DM have in common????? Edited January 31 by Doorman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 31 Moderators Share Posted January 31 I can't post loops from work anymore, but the two ulls go on a date with each other. Fun stuff, but just a touch too east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paletitsnow63 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 5 minutes ago, GregRups said: 12z CMC came north as well. Not as far as GFS a nice start This is a new wrinkle on the models. Previously the SLP meandered off the SC, GA, FL coasts for 36 to 48 hours then exited almost due east. Now looking at the GFS and CMC it appears to head NE after looping around the SE coast. While it is heading NE it really moves slow also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 14 minutes ago, Paletitsnow63 said: 12Z Snowmap Boston needs it TBH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 4 minutes ago, Paletitsnow63 said: This is a new wrinkle on the models. Previously the SLP meandered off the SC, GA, FL coasts for 36 to 48 hours then exited almost due east. Now looking at the GFS and CMC it appears to head NE after looping around the SE coast. While it is heading NE it really moves slow also. It's pretty remarkable that, aloft (H5) the storm of tomorrow that exits the coast, goes to near 50/50 and before it then moves along, it leaves behind a tiny piece of itself. That tiny piece becomes my "pick up line" I referenced yesterday. Because the low of Friday, does not linger - it misses the connection to the one we're discussing here. Thus, not being dragged along by the nose, "our" vort max energy stays behind as well. The left behind piece to the N of there then picks up the whole bundle and, since it lost the main steering jets by then, is much slower to move along. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 (edited) 16 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: It's pretty remarkable that, aloft (H5) the storm of tomorrow that exits the coast, goes to near 50/50 and before it then moves along, it leaves behind a tiny piece of itself. That tiny piece becomes my "pick up line" I referenced yesterday. Because the low of Friday, does not linger - it misses the connection to the one we're discussing here. Thus, not being dragged along by the nose, "our" vort max energy stays behind as well. The left behind piece to the N of there then picks up the whole bundle and, since it lost the main steering jets by then, is much slower to move along. Now, yesterday, I posited along those lines - showed the trend that the "50/50 low", as it moved on, was less and less influential to the coastal low. What I didn't see, and doubt few if any also did, was this idea of a "baby" to the 50/50, becoming on its own, an item of affinity for "our" system. Additionally, I would imagine that the once present combined High/Low "squashing" (which I never liked that explanation btw) to the south is less impactful - allow room up the coast. This is what can result if that trend goes to a more extreme. It also introduces the prospect that we've not yet seen the last iteration of the outcome (or is that the provisional outcome). Uncertainty within our ability to capture even with computer models abounds in "oxbow" flow (as I sometimes call Omega Block) Is it correct and if so, to what extent is it correct? I have no clue - beyond it does keep things "interesting" for the time being. Edited January 31 by Undertakerson2.0 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 31 Moderators Share Posted January 31 Two separate lows, one is 540 (off NC) and one is 537 (LI), from different streams. Don't see that very often. They join and drop to 534. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 (edited) 36 minutes ago, Doorman said: vibes Trivia -what do Babe Ruth Ronald Reagan Bob Marley DM have in common????? Quote Trivia -what do Babe Ruth Ronald Reagan Bob Marley DM have in common????? You are all Aquarians As are some of my favorite people. Well those of you who were not on Death Valley Days anyway. I used to bet my step dad $1 on his b'day every year. He said it snowed on his birthday every year - I bet him it did not. I lost many dollars over the years. Third edit - yes, stepdad's b'day was also Feb 6 Edited January 31 by Undertakerson2.0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 2 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: You are all Aquarians And some of my favorite people. Well those of you who were not on Death Valley Days anyway. Feb 6th B-day - All Left Handed True ------------ Nice write ups this morning UT.... premature extrapolation aside LMAO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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