Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Just a little 48 hour winter storm over the region Nothing to see here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Be still my heart, that little hole in CTP land is pretty much right over my house. I'm not that lucky - am I? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 26 Admin Share Posted January 26 That central Canada ridge structure is going to play with the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Holy COW, I'm pretty sure it's going to phase for like the 4th time The loop of H5 is going to be INsane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Follow the bouncing vort max(s) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 4 hours ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Follow the bouncing vort max(s) pretty high confidence that the models will not handle this upcoming pattern very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 26 Moderators Share Posted January 26 Uptons early assesment Energy from the clipper low, which current 00Z guidance shows somewhere in the central to southern Appalachians Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, will transfer energy to a developing coastal low Wednesday night off of the Carolina shore. At the same time, a low will be dropping down from Hudson Bay around this time with some colder air. Some previous 12Z guidance showed 850mb temps -20C from the polar vortex, while current guidance has significantly trimmed back on those projections, closer to -3-6C. Goes to show the variability between model run cycles and the uncertainty surrounding what may transpire late in the week. For now, have gone with blended guidance keeping temperatures closer to average. Weak high pressure in between these systems appear to keep POPs out of the forecast or at least very low, but given that this is near the end of the forecast period, this may change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 26 Moderators Share Posted January 26 (edited) Mt Holly's longer view .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The long term period overall looks rather benign with temperatures right around normal. A clipper system will try to move in during the middle of next week, but guidance has been all over the place with the track as it dives in from the Great Lakes. At most, any rain/snow looks to be light if it even does clip our region, but nothing looks impactful at this time. Getting into the day by day forecast, a mid-level ridge will pass overhead Monday Night into Tuesday. An area of high pressure will nudge in from the north, moving southeastward off the New England coast by Tuesday Night The result will be quiet weather and temperatures Monday and Tuesday Night in the mid to upper 20s, with low 30s in the usual warmer spots. Highs Tuesday will generally be in the low to mid 40s with some peeks of sun. A trough digs down from the Upper Midwest Tuesday Night, with a weak low diving southeast towards the Piedmont region. Both the 00z GFS/ECMWF take these features south of the region with the 00z GEM taking a more northward track, which would bring some precip to the region. Kept mentionable PoPs out for now for the Tuesday Night/Wednesday period, but it is not out of the question for some light rain/snow showers. However, nothing looks overly impactful at this time. As the weak surface low moves off the coast, most of the guidance takes it harmlessly offshore while a few ensemble members bring it up the coast. The likelihood of this happening remains low however and the mid to late next week period should be dry. Temperatures will hover around normal for Wednesday/Thursday (low to mid 40s). Edited January 26 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twinmama08 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 51 minutes ago, kdskidoo said: pretty high confidence that the models will not handle this upcoming pattern very well. At least we can finally have high confidence in something! 😀 This modeling is beyond my current level of understanding--too many things happening! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Pretty crazy variety of outcomes - no AFDs wanna get too close to these scenarios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 26 Moderators Share Posted January 26 18 hours ago, StretchCT said: The one behind it looks like some impressive energy This one does a doozy on the GFS after the one in this thread. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 26 Moderators Share Posted January 26 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Pretty crazy variety of outcomes - no AFDs wanna get too close to these scenarios Oh I'm not criticizing them. You don't see me here making a call either. It's just that the Sunday to Sunday time frame next week is fascinating. Edited January 26 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 2 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Oh I'm not criticizing them. You don't see me here making a call either. It's just that the Sunday to Sunday time frame next week is fascinating. I didn't take it that way. I know if they are tentative, we certainly can't be puffy chested with our calls either. I don't think I've ever seen anything much like this TBH. Maybe smaller similar versions but this protracted existence of so many pieces is unique to my memory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 26 Moderators Share Posted January 26 26 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: I didn't take it that way. I know if they are tentative, we certainly can't be puffy chested with our calls either. I don't think I've ever seen anything much like this TBH. Maybe smaller similar versions but this protracted existence of so many pieces is unique to my memory The waviness in the ops is astounding. Again this is a bit later but it's crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 56 minutes ago, StretchCT said: The likelihood of this happening remains low however and the mid to late next week period should be dry. I could use some dry weather and slight breeze, if it’s not snowing get outta here! They’re above my pay grade, glad I don’t have to write those Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Here we go with yet another idea from Euro - the Artic jet/ (PV?) influence is driving the Op runs nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Wheeeeeee! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Oh great, models LOVE HLB* AFDCTP - Extended Some snow showers could linger into the mid to late morning hours on Monday. Otherwise some rain and snow showers at times next week, as temperatures moderate to above normal levels later in the week. Some spread between the GFS and EC with how the systems track and phase. The main thing that shows up is the signal for an Omega block setting up at higher latitudes with time and a jet stream well to the south. Some support for colder weather again by next weekend. *(HLB= High Latitude Blocking; a glossary entrant?) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 26 Moderators Share Posted January 26 9 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: *(HLB= High Latitude Blocking; a glossary entrant?) Believe it or not.... it's in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 14 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Believe it or not.... it's in there. I have no doubt And Omega (and Rex}? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 27 Social Media Crew Share Posted January 27 Odd track.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 27 Social Media Crew Share Posted January 27 I’ll accept it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 27 Admin Share Posted January 27 GEFS still offering up a buffet of options. Mother some inverted troffing? Maybe let the southern parcel slip away and let the northern stream do the heavy lifting? A nice phased storm is probably not on the menu however. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squepp Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 hour ago, MaineJay said: GEFS still offering up a buffet of options. Mother some inverted troffing? Maybe let the southern parcel slip away and let the northern stream do the heavy lifting? A nice phased storm is probably not on the menu however. Can we go eat somewhere else then? 😁 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Couple EPS stragglers hanging around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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