Moderators StretchCT Posted January 23 Moderators Share Posted January 23 Thought placeholder until the 12z comes out... GEFS mean doesn't even make it to 40n Positive tilted trough building southeast, going to go neg too late, if at all. Height lines dropping into it though. That 546 height dropping in as it goes through hour 150 is interesting. 850 temps and low placement decent too at 150. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheComet Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 12 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said: It could trend better and further south over time. We wait and see. Maybe this is the spot you want to see it in at this juncture, maybe the models are reaching the far northern extent and will start correcting south. We'll see. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 23 Moderators Share Posted January 23 Just too late, except for Maine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 23 Author Share Posted January 23 Just now, StretchCT said: Just too late, except for Maine. The rich keep getting richer, as it were 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 23 Author Share Posted January 23 the original idea vs NOW Yeah - we ain't goin back to that. And that is the only way MidAtl was going to get winter out of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 23 Author Share Posted January 23 (edited) Even by adjusting for an earlier transit of the storm at latitude Why? Because that Artic Jet piece is not in the mix - it dives down in behind this. That has to change for MidAtl to get winter out of this Edited January 23 by Undertakerson2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: the original idea vs NOW Yeah - we ain't goin back to that. And that is the only way MidAtl was going to get winter out of this Little bit of a difference with the ridge 😀 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 23 Author Share Posted January 23 Just now, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said: Little bit of a difference with the ridge 😀 yes, you can see it there in the original which has the ARJ piece already involved as oppose to now where it's actually still within the W ridge and shunting it to a negative orientation (where as in original it is posi tilt as the height re-rise behind the AJ piece) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 To your point earlier, this isn’t how we get our snows here. Warm before yes. Warm/storm/ warm not so much. And don’t git me started about my favorite 3 letters in winter 😀 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted January 23 Moderators Share Posted January 23 UKie leaves a nice swath of snow for central PA through southern New England 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 23 Moderators Share Posted January 23 GFS ensemble still holding on hope. Ensembles don't have the primary low making it as far north before the secondary forms. That would be more exciting if there was cold air to hold in place. Mean still doesn't hit 40N which given the direction it's coming doesn't usually result in rain... sometimes nothing imby actually. 850s work for White Plains and north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 NE special? Still 6 days to go, going to take a lot of trending in one direction for mid Atlantic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted January 23 Moderators Share Posted January 23 And...just cuz...12z Euro. Good run for southern tier NY/northern tier PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 29 minutes ago, NEPAsnow said: So close.. but yeah, maybe 10 miles south here, 10 miles south there and its more white for more folks. Deer and bear on the NY/PA border will enjoy this tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 6 minutes ago, JDClapper said: So close.. but yeah, maybe 10 miles south here, 10 miles south there and its more white for more folks. Deer and bear on the NY/PA border will enjoy this tho. Trail cam caught what they do when humans are not around 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miller A Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 53 minutes ago, TLChip said: NE special? Still 6 days to go, going to take a lot of trending in one direction for mid Atlantic. TBH. those things are not so special anymore. If a New Englander walked into a Storm Store he'd ask for "The Usual, please" 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BossaNova Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 (edited) BOX rarely has much to say beyond 5 days out other than "signals" and "hints" but today's write-up they go all out - strikes me as a concise summary of the last couple of pages here.. Quote There remains quite a bit of uncertainty in regards to next Sunday and Monday. Keep in mind this is 6-7 days in the future so this forecast could change quite a bit over the next few days. A moisture loaded southern stream shortwave/low pressure system will lift northeastward towards the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile...some of the guidance hints at a secondary coastal low pressure system developing. There is not much antecedent cold air ahead of this system and the upper level pattern +NAO/+EPO is not favorable either. However...there is confluent flow up in Quebec along with a potentially arctic low level airmass. Therefore...depending on the track and how far south this surge of cold air gets will determine the Ptype. Currently, the potential exists for rain, ice and/or snow if this storm comes to fruition Sat night & Sun perhaps lingering into Mon. This may be followed by a shot of very cold air. Edited January 23 by BossaNova Typo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 57 minutes ago, Miller A said: TBH. those things are not so special anymore. If a New Englander walked into a Storm Store he'd ask for "The Usual, please" Things haven’t been so special up there this winter. They cashed in on a couple there recently to get some base for skiing , but overall not been good, and wow their forums “melt” when it isn’t good. Fun to read actually 😀 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 hour ago, Miller A said: TBH. those things are not so special anymore. If a New Englander walked into a Storm Store he'd ask for "The Usual, please" If I could move, I’d be going to at least 42N at some elevation. I feel like that is about the line of guaranteed winter that has staying power. South of that it melts and comes and goes. Whites would be my first choice though. A big LES town would be cool too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcari394 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 hour ago, JDClapper said: So close.. but yeah, maybe 10 miles south here, 10 miles south there and its more white for more folks. Deer and bear on the NY/PA border will enjoy this tho. Hey-- there a few folks that live up here in the northern tier 🙂 More deer/bear than people in these parts, though. 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 11 minutes ago, tcari394 said: Hey-- there a few folks that live up here in the northern tier 🙂 More deer/bear than people in these parts, though. Haha, Yeah, no disrepsect to my northern tier friends intended! But dem deer and bear run things up dare. 😅 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Chances are still... non zero 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 52 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said: Things haven’t been so special up there this winter. They cashed in on a couple there recently to get some base for skiing , but overall not been good, and wow their forums “melt” when it isn’t good. Fun to read actually 😀 By the way, not referring to this forum. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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