RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 And the 1st mention of precip Sunday from Holly….. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=PHI&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 4 hours ago, JDClapper said: I dunno.. EPS has ~25% chance of measurable white in interior PA for Sunday. Chances aren't 0! haha That is known as a non zero chance 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 23 Moderators Share Posted January 23 (edited) Euro members vs op Need that H a little earlier Edited January 23 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 23 Moderators Share Posted January 23 Euro ens snow vs op 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 23 Moderators Share Posted January 23 Still a ways to go. Ukie, ECMWF, GFS, NAVY 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 24 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Still a ways to go. Ukie, ECMWF, GFS, NAVY Couple of the looks there are getting that high in the ballpark , but geez we have like 3 storms to plow through here first: small one tomorrow, little bigger one Wed, then pretty decent one Friday. Has to change the playing field for this one. That’s one serious weather pattern- 4 in 6 days 😀 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 23 Author Share Posted January 23 Fine by me - others won't like it very much Without the one big storm idea, this threat is waning quickly so far as wintery precip goes. The two parcels idea just won't bring in enough cold air - not without the Arctic jet being involved, not without the storm being able to pull down cold air aloft. Sill a chance for the NE crew it seems, otherwise not so much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 23 Admin Share Posted January 23 11 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Fine by me - others won't like it very much Without the one big storm idea, this threat is waning quickly so far as wintery precip goes. The two parcels idea just won't bring in enough cold air - not without the Arctic jet being involved, not without the storm being able to pull down cold air aloft. Sill a chance for the NE crew it seems, otherwise not so much Looks a lot like the EPS EFI EPS has a decent signal for 4-8" up this way for the hors d'oeuvre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 23 Admin Share Posted January 23 Sometimes models come back to old ideas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 23 Author Share Posted January 23 4 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Sometimes models come back to old ideas. When I saw the 6z - I thought "now there's an attempt to bring back the idea" as the northern piece tries to inject "late" (as in closer to the original thread date ideas) 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 23 Author Share Posted January 23 Trending back to a) slower overall and b) more N jet interaction (while still near MidAtl etc) Can it make it the whole way back? Will this be seen in other models or is this simply a GFS thing? Day 6+ so it's possible in any event 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Canadian still has a storm FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Perhaps tracking 3 storms in a week wore people out 👀👀 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Is this storm breaking apart? Looked a day or two ago and there was a solid stream of precipitation (snow/rain). With warmer temps moving into LI, any snow will probably be turned into freezing rain (if it comes to that). Most likely we'll just get rain only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 To me , does look UT like we may have to go with “the storm may have to manufacture its own cold air” thang , which i think actually did happen about 3 decades ago, OR perhaps the other Hail Mary- the low going through Friday assumes a 50/50 ish position, helping to “clog” things up until that big ol high comes in. Is that pretty much where we are at 6 days out 😀😀 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 23 Author Share Posted January 23 9 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said: To me , does look UT like we may have to go with “the storm may have to manufacture its own cold air” thang , which i think actually did happen about 3 decades ago, OR perhaps the other Hail Mary- the low going through Friday assumes a 50/50 ish position, helping to “clog” things up until that big ol high comes in. Is that pretty much where we are at 6 days out 😀😀 I think we need that Artic jet piece one way or t'other. It can either lend enough cold to the overall, or enough dynamics for the storm to deepen and be able to draw down the cold from aloft. Not a great place to be in given the preceding warmth - going from 60 here on Friday, to "snow temps" within 60 hrs after is not going to be easy regardless. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 23 Author Share Posted January 23 WPC: While within a widespread and significantly warmer pattern, enough cooled air may remain in place to allow potential for some snow along with some windy conditions on the far northern edge of the broad precipitation shield into the interior Northeast by Sunday as aided with a deepening low track up/off the East Coast. This storm should become strong enough to be a maritime hazard off the Mid-Atlantic then New England Sunday into Monday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted January 23 Admin Share Posted January 23 17 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: I think we need that Artic jet piece one way or t'other. It can either lend enough cold to the overall, or enough dynamics for the storm to deepen and be able to draw down the cold from aloft. Not a great place to be in given the preceding warmth - going from 60 here on Friday, to "snow temps" within 60 hrs after is not going to be easy regardless. Granted, we have seen these types of temperature swings before and it makes for quite a storm, given the dynamics. I remember a few years back being at 71/72 with a blizzard expected the next day in LI. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Would be really cool to pull a snow here, in between 2 warm weeks. Melt, snow, melt. Perfect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted January 23 Moderators Share Posted January 23 3 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said: Would be really cool to pull a snow here, in between 2 warm weeks. Melt, snow, melt. Perfect. Finally have a snowpack here....not ready to let it go yet. Time for 12zers. Ze German model stays positive tilted 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowadelphia Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, telejunkie said: Finally have a snowpack here....not ready to let it go yet. Time for 12zers. Ze German model stays positive tilted We've had a snowpack here in Philly for a full week. Been awhile since I've seen snow for that long. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 (edited) 6 hours ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Fine by me - others won't like it very much Without the one big storm idea, this threat is waning quickly so far as wintery precip goes. The two parcels idea just won't bring in enough cold air - not without the Arctic jet being involved, not without the storm being able to pull down cold air aloft. Sill a chance for the NE crew it seems, otherwise not so much Yea, there’s no fresh injection of cold air. I Think this will be primarily wet instead of white south of NY thruway/I86-I88 Edited January 23 by PA road DAWG 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 23 Author Share Posted January 23 10 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said: Yea, there’s no fresh injection of cold air. I Think this will be primarily wet instead of white south of NY thruway/I86-I88 that is why I'm not a big fan of the idea of the early vortex doing this any good. It nearly HAS to be the second one that comes in that ones wake. Otherwise, you're talking about a rain event for most outside of New England - with maybe some end as snow possibility Sure we've seen instance where temps go from one extreme warm to one extreme cold. Those almost never happen in mid winter though, mostly those are Spring or Fall events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted January 23 Moderators Share Posted January 23 19 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said: Yea, there’s no fresh injection of cold air. I Think this will be primarily wet instead of white south of NY thruway/I86-I88 We do have a SHP pushing down from the Hudson Bay region per GFS. But to your point...it only really benefits those north of I-90. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 6 minutes ago, telejunkie said: We do have a SHP pushing down from the Hudson Bay region per GFS. But to your point...it only really benefits those north of I-90. It could trend better and further south over time. We wait and see. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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