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January 28-29, 2024 Mid-Atl/NE Winter Storm Potential


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1 hour ago, Rickrd said:

From DT land. Just saying. Just a messenger throwing info out there. 
“there has never been an East Coast Snow Storm when the MJO IS IN Phase 6, not happening”

Snow storm....engaged. 

Page topper boom! 

Joke: DT

Edited by MDBlueridge
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2 hours ago, Rickrd said:

From DT land. Just saying. Just a messenger throwing info out there. 
“there has never been an East Coast Snow Storm when the MJO IS IN Phase 6, not happening”

Alright! That's like almost a guarantee that it's on. DT reverse jinx. 

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2 hours ago, Rickrd said:

From DT land. Just saying. Just a messenger throwing info out there. 
“there has never been an East Coast Snow Storm when the MJO IS IN Phase 6, not happening”

Pretty ballsy call.  Even though I'm far from an expert, rarely does "x" teleconnection scenario always result in "y" end solution.  

Pretty sure it was him who sent me a threatening FB message when I commented on his FB page questioning him for posting a snow clown map years ago.  Wish I screenshotted my response as was tastefully vulgar lol.  That storm didn't happen, so I felt a bit vindicated lol

*correction* It was whoever ran WxRisk.......sorry for the confusion

 

Edited by Cdfarabaugh
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6 hours ago, Cdfarabaugh said:

Pretty ballsy call.  Even though I'm far from an expert, rarely does "x" teleconnection scenario always result in "y" end solution.  

Pretty sure it was him who sent me a threatening FB message when I commented on his FB page questioning him for posting a snow clown map years ago.  Wish I screenshotted my response as was tastefully vulgar lol.  That storm didn't happen, so I felt a bit vindicated lol

*correction* It was whoever ran WxRisk.......sorry for the confusion

 

DT is Dave Toleris is WxRisk

4 hours ago, Rickrd said:

Models after day 9 or so are ever changing run to run like throwing papers up in the air. 

It's f'n mayhem - GFS offering an piffle on the 28th then a c/f on the 31st as the second piece is too far east. 

3 hours ago, Rickrd said:

Note to self.

“I will only look at GFS and to some extent the Euro, only 5 days in advance as being 60% correct with my level of understanding.”

F'n Euro now wants to make this all out of the first piece.

K - I give up! No more starting a thread beyond 144hrs. LOL 

It is taking a nice track, kinda similar to our past snow event - our low in Canada gets close but no phase at our lat. 

image.thumb.png.f883a949ccdca3582f2f90293ce76b96.png

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7 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

Can we at least sort of discuss the 28/29 front runner here?  I feel like it's that weird dude in the corner no one wants to acknowledge.  🤣

We have kinda been - though at first I didn't think we should. Then again, one storm one thread was an Accu-Rule I never really liked. 

We don't have to be like those days. Just be ready for things to get really confusing and weird (hence my repeated references to Dr. Strange) 

We could even top it off with a dose of clipper, Clapper. (haha) 

image.thumb.png.ec0f73e8e8fa9acae7574716cb35d741.png

Edited by Undertakerson2.0
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For our pal, RickRd

Reminds me of my "MJO" song I penned in Dec 2015 in a secret location near Mount Snow-Begone

Spoiler

Oh MJO Oh MJO, keep moving through Phase 7 - Oh MJO oh MJO, Phase 8 is weenie hea-ven.

If you stay amped to some degree - oh it can snow enough to please

Cuz if you do, oh MJO - by New Years we'll be sleddin' 

Point being, I've always thought the amplification of the MJO is paramount. When it's highly amped, I'm fairly sure that seasonal averages are easier to obtain. Almost as if you can translate the amplification of the MJO signal, to the amplification of the wave patterns downstream. 

So, as ECMWF Ens's suggest, we rock in Feb and it quickly wanes towards the end. 

Screenshot 2024-01-22 054320.png

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3 hours ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

For our pal, RickRd

Reminds me of my "MJO" song I penned in Dec 2015 in a secret location near Mount Snow-Begone

  Reveal hidden contents

Oh MJO Oh MJO, keep moving through Phase 7 - Oh MJO oh MJO, Phase 8 is weenie hea-ven.

If you stay amped to some degree - oh it can snow enough to please

Cuz if you do, oh MJO - by New Years we'll be sleddin' 

Point being, I've always thought the amplification of the MJO is paramount. When it's highly amped, I'm fairly sure that seasonal averages are easier to obtain. Almost as if you can translate the amplification of the MJO signal, to the amplification of the wave patterns downstream. 

So, as ECMWF Ens's suggest, we rock in Feb and it quickly wanes towards the end. 

Screenshot 2024-01-22 054320.png

Ah yes, the magical mjo and its magical phase.  The does it drive weather, predict weather, or just along for the ride debate that rages through weather forums everywhere every winter. 
the magical phase is important, the LR modeling of the timing of it, length of it, or if it actually occurs is where my skirt gets ruffled. I think it was last winter, or perhaps the one before where it kept getting predicted, kept getting pushed back to the point that there was debate after if it even did occur. Was busting RickRd the other day that when we meet up for drinks i am bringing a new mjo can, cuz the old one’s been kicked down the road so many times over the years that it doesn’t roll anymore 😀

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