MDBlueridge Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 (edited) 1 hour ago, Rickrd said: From DT land. Just saying. Just a messenger throwing info out there. “there has never been an East Coast Snow Storm when the MJO IS IN Phase 6, not happening” Snow storm....engaged. Page topper boom! Joke: DT Edited January 22 by MDBlueridge 1 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 hours ago, Rickrd said: From DT land. Just saying. Just a messenger throwing info out there. “there has never been an East Coast Snow Storm when the MJO IS IN Phase 6, not happening” Alright! That's like almost a guarantee that it's on. DT reverse jinx. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cdfarabaugh Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 (edited) 2 hours ago, Rickrd said: From DT land. Just saying. Just a messenger throwing info out there. “there has never been an East Coast Snow Storm when the MJO IS IN Phase 6, not happening” Pretty ballsy call. Even though I'm far from an expert, rarely does "x" teleconnection scenario always result in "y" end solution. Pretty sure it was him who sent me a threatening FB message when I commented on his FB page questioning him for posting a snow clown map years ago. Wish I screenshotted my response as was tastefully vulgar lol. That storm didn't happen, so I felt a bit vindicated lol *correction* It was whoever ran WxRisk.......sorry for the confusion Edited January 22 by Cdfarabaugh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 i know its not for the dates posted but something is showing up again per the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 0z GFS offering I intense cold front from the north on 1/31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Models after day 9 or so are ever changing run to run like throwing papers up in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phillyfan Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 6 minutes ago, Rickrd said: Models after day 9 or so are ever changing run to run like throwing papers up in the air. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Note to self. “I will only look at GFS and to some extent the Euro, only 5 days in advance as being 60% correct with my level of understanding.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 22 Author Share Posted January 22 6 hours ago, Cdfarabaugh said: Pretty ballsy call. Even though I'm far from an expert, rarely does "x" teleconnection scenario always result in "y" end solution. Pretty sure it was him who sent me a threatening FB message when I commented on his FB page questioning him for posting a snow clown map years ago. Wish I screenshotted my response as was tastefully vulgar lol. That storm didn't happen, so I felt a bit vindicated lol *correction* It was whoever ran WxRisk.......sorry for the confusion DT is Dave Toleris is WxRisk 4 hours ago, Rickrd said: Models after day 9 or so are ever changing run to run like throwing papers up in the air. It's f'n mayhem - GFS offering an piffle on the 28th then a c/f on the 31st as the second piece is too far east. 3 hours ago, Rickrd said: Note to self. “I will only look at GFS and to some extent the Euro, only 5 days in advance as being 60% correct with my level of understanding.” F'n Euro now wants to make this all out of the first piece. K - I give up! No more starting a thread beyond 144hrs. LOL It is taking a nice track, kinda similar to our past snow event - our low in Canada gets close but no phase at our lat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 22 Author Share Posted January 22 (Clapper shrug inserted here) 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 22 Author Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: (Clapper shrug inserted here) While the two whiffs above do this two days later🤪 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 22 Author Share Posted January 22 8 hours ago, MDBlueridge said: Snow storm....engaged. Page topper boom! Joke: DT Post of the Year candidate 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 22 Author Share Posted January 22 7 hours ago, 1816 said: Alright! That's like almost a guarantee that it's on. DT reverse jinx. Man - if Snobal hears you sayin that, U gonna get ittttt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 22 Author Share Posted January 22 (edited) It's like a multiverse of shortwaves. Edited January 22 by Undertakerson2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Can we at least sort of discuss the 28/29 front runner here? I feel like it's that weird dude in the corner no one wants to acknowledge. 🤣 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 22 Author Share Posted January 22 (edited) 7 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Can we at least sort of discuss the 28/29 front runner here? I feel like it's that weird dude in the corner no one wants to acknowledge. 🤣 We have kinda been - though at first I didn't think we should. Then again, one storm one thread was an Accu-Rule I never really liked. We don't have to be like those days. Just be ready for things to get really confusing and weird (hence my repeated references to Dr. Strange) We could even top it off with a dose of clipper, Clapper. (haha) Edited January 22 by Undertakerson2.0 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 22 Author Share Posted January 22 For our pal, RickRd Reminds me of my "MJO" song I penned in Dec 2015 in a secret location near Mount Snow-Begone Spoiler Oh MJO Oh MJO, keep moving through Phase 7 - Oh MJO oh MJO, Phase 8 is weenie hea-ven. If you stay amped to some degree - oh it can snow enough to please Cuz if you do, oh MJO - by New Years we'll be sleddin' Point being, I've always thought the amplification of the MJO is paramount. When it's highly amped, I'm fairly sure that seasonal averages are easier to obtain. Almost as if you can translate the amplification of the MJO signal, to the amplification of the wave patterns downstream. So, as ECMWF Ens's suggest, we rock in Feb and it quickly wanes towards the end. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 22 Admin Share Posted January 22 GFS looks to offer a solution where the southern piece is allowed to escape, and tries to leave space for a Manitoba Mauler to dive off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gettysburger Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 hours ago, JDClapper said: Can we at least sort of discuss the 28/29 front runner here? I feel like it's that weird dude in the corner no one wants to acknowledge. 🤣 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LUCC Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Ooooof, let the flooding resume starting Wednesday! 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 hours ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: For our pal, RickRd Reminds me of my "MJO" song I penned in Dec 2015 in a secret location near Mount Snow-Begone Reveal hidden contents Oh MJO Oh MJO, keep moving through Phase 7 - Oh MJO oh MJO, Phase 8 is weenie hea-ven. If you stay amped to some degree - oh it can snow enough to please Cuz if you do, oh MJO - by New Years we'll be sleddin' Point being, I've always thought the amplification of the MJO is paramount. When it's highly amped, I'm fairly sure that seasonal averages are easier to obtain. Almost as if you can translate the amplification of the MJO signal, to the amplification of the wave patterns downstream. So, as ECMWF Ens's suggest, we rock in Feb and it quickly wanes towards the end. Ah yes, the magical mjo and its magical phase. The does it drive weather, predict weather, or just along for the ride debate that rages through weather forums everywhere every winter. the magical phase is important, the LR modeling of the timing of it, length of it, or if it actually occurs is where my skirt gets ruffled. I think it was last winter, or perhaps the one before where it kept getting predicted, kept getting pushed back to the point that there was debate after if it even did occur. Was busting RickRd the other day that when we meet up for drinks i am bringing a new mjo can, cuz the old one’s been kicked down the road so many times over the years that it doesn’t roll anymore 😀 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 22 Author Share Posted January 22 (edited) IKE likes this time period for an inland special (sorry 95 and east) VERY FWIW Soon gonna be decision time to modify the dates Edited January 22 by Undertakerson2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 22 Author Share Posted January 22 Could be huge IF that Canadian piece gets involved - at least hinted at by the area of precip over the Lakes Then again, this is ICON which I mistrust at any range - not always totally wrong, but seldom is it correct 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 22 Author Share Posted January 22 Hello, come here often? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 22 Author Share Posted January 22 As we can see here, after that bit rolls on, it's not as if the trough isn't loaded... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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