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January 28-29, 2024 Mid-Atl/NE Winter Storm Potential


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We didn't get snow here but got the dreaded freezing rain.  The freezing rain started after the busses started their pickup this morning.  My driveway was a sheet of ice and the dirt road I live on was all ice.  I think it caught everyone by surprise.  Currently 30F and very light rain continues.

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4 hours ago, StretchCT said:

Where we are so far with snowfall last 48hrs.

image.thumb.png.85b6ad1fa3b58d188ed7fe1dfb310178.png

Last babyg I looked at before obs status.
image.gif.6d4715f4eb1afe40b35d601e4b9795bb.gif

Edited by TLChip
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54 minutes ago, TLChip said:

Last babyg I looked at before obs status.
image.gif.e9c3042a526966961df05c9824a193e4.gif

I'm starting to wonder if the RGEM is the best model for a Nino.  Then again, like my post in the long range, this Nino is very different.

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2 hours ago, Gardyloo said:

We got about 4" of heart attack snow, wet and heavy.  And some rain.....it's all done now.  Time to

I agree about the snow.  I measured 4.5" of snow + crusted snow from yesterday.  That gives me 31.75" of snow so far this Season... I got 🚜 running this morning.  This snow was wet and heavy and compacted quite well 🤬 in the bucket. 

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I think @NEPAsnow asked about riding rdps this weekend. Someone else may have some hard facts but a few of us think baby-g has been sniffing out most events this winter.
 

That southern shift a lot of the other models tried to lure people in PA with never happened on it. 
 

I have no statistics to prove this so if someone does throw them out please. 

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48 hr challenge results.  Areas of focus for me are Northern PA, New Hampshire, Maine up to Portland, Catskills, Berks.  Start with the closest in my opinion.

results1-28.thumb.png.4eb8af7e37f7ee0ffba5f130060ffe6e.png

Nam3k - slight bit overdone in the Berks, but close in NH/ME/Catskills.  Good in NEPA and Central Northern PA, missed NW PA

Spoiler

nam3kk.thumb.png.4a22cfe53ab1106b49c2f300e89dcedf.png

RDPS/RGEM - missed NW PA, underdone in rest of N PA, but had the right idea. Good in Catskills and Berks, missed NH/ME

Spoiler

rdpsk.thumb.png.f582513c7fe0147f15d2829afdc9fc4d.png

UKIE - a little underdone in N PA but had right idea, and included NW PA. Catskills good, Berks good, N CT not good, NH pretty good, missed ME.  Should note UKMET is 10:1 so in reality this is an underdone map that just happened to work out right.

Spoiler

ukmet10.thumb.png.86fd0c42ae800020c18b0396190235a3.png

THE NWS - almost forgot them.  They did pretty good.  A little under in PA, but close to the idea, Catskills ok, overdid CT/RI, got Berks, NW and ME but not far enough up the coast.

Spoiler

nwssnow.png.dfb6d287db838da14e922952423d9594.png

ICON - a little overdone but probably cause it's a 10:1. Got most of it right. 

Spoiler

icon10.thumb.png.5e4d8d38038b9ebf4253801947ffa35d.png

The rest of these had major flaws. ARW probably the best of them. NBM not bad, just underdone a bit.

Spoiler

image.thumb.png.da740b3d68095c405a64063e56b11cd7.png

eurok.thumb.png.99693361a48f8cf3e15787ab980095e7.png

fv3k.thumb.png.f6916417e8eb40721da024866e633cc2.png

gefs10.thumb.png.e035437c4266c27d9b1d11eebc78d4de.png

gemk.thumb.png.628a5d9562474b0cbb642bcd79785803.pnggfsk.thumb.png.6cd43a757f988e85a52c2a0d62b05592.png

hrrrk.thumb.png.74384a6a7a52fb672dc91217d66ca6fb.png

namk.thumb.png.c49610fd235bd9a0fd299e529d149758.png

NBM.thumb.png.7a99585b1c39d35c42b5c2dbf5f35c1b.png

nsslk.thumb.png.29ec80559aa8bb8756c1b372f9517cf4.png

rapk.thumb.png.004dd557eebcebf3fb3fdb36023eba85.pngimage.thumb.png.037d87dc7e603f569e76bba093254979.png

sref10.thumb.png.488e2341a811c2cfdb80d5c1542ac2af.png

 

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13 hours ago, StretchCT said:

48 hr challenge results.  Areas of focus for me are Northern PA, New Hampshire, Maine up to Portland, Catskills, Berks.  Start with the closest in my opinion.

results1-28.thumb.png.4eb8af7e37f7ee0ffba5f130060ffe6e.png

Nam3k - slight bit overdone in the Berks, but close in NH/ME/Catskills.  Good in NEPA and Central Northern PA, missed NW PA

  Reveal hidden contents

nam3kk.thumb.png.4a22cfe53ab1106b49c2f300e89dcedf.png

RDPS/RGEM - missed NW PA, underdone in rest of N PA, but had the right idea. Good in Catskills and Berks, missed NH/ME

  Reveal hidden contents

rdpsk.thumb.png.f582513c7fe0147f15d2829afdc9fc4d.png

UKIE - a little underdone in N PA but had right idea, and included NW PA. Catskills good, Berks good, N CT not good, NH pretty good, missed ME.  Should note UKMET is 10:1 so in reality this is an underdone map that just happened to work out right.

  Reveal hidden contents

ukmet10.thumb.png.86fd0c42ae800020c18b0396190235a3.png

THE NWS - almost forgot them.  They did pretty good.  A little under in PA, but close to the idea, Catskills ok, overdid CT/RI, got Berks, NW and ME but not far enough up the coast.

  Reveal hidden contents

nwssnow.png.dfb6d287db838da14e922952423d9594.png

ICON - a little overdone but probably cause it's a 10:1. Got most of it right. 

  Hide contents

icon10.thumb.png.5e4d8d38038b9ebf4253801947ffa35d.png

The rest of these had major flaws. ARW probably the best of them. NBM not bad, just underdone a bit.

  Reveal hidden contents

image.thumb.png.da740b3d68095c405a64063e56b11cd7.png

eurok.thumb.png.99693361a48f8cf3e15787ab980095e7.png

fv3k.thumb.png.f6916417e8eb40721da024866e633cc2.png

gefs10.thumb.png.e035437c4266c27d9b1d11eebc78d4de.png

gemk.thumb.png.628a5d9562474b0cbb642bcd79785803.pnggfsk.thumb.png.6cd43a757f988e85a52c2a0d62b05592.png

hrrrk.thumb.png.74384a6a7a52fb672dc91217d66ca6fb.png

namk.thumb.png.c49610fd235bd9a0fd299e529d149758.png

NBM.thumb.png.7a99585b1c39d35c42b5c2dbf5f35c1b.png

nsslk.thumb.png.29ec80559aa8bb8756c1b372f9517cf4.png

rapk.thumb.png.004dd557eebcebf3fb3fdb36023eba85.pngimage.thumb.png.037d87dc7e603f569e76bba093254979.png

sref10.thumb.png.488e2341a811c2cfdb80d5c1542ac2af.png

 

I have missed these post game analysis. Was trying to go from memory which model(s) painted the best picture for this one. Think overall they did fairly well with this one

Solid gold stuff Stretch👍👍

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