Snowadelphia Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, Undertakerson2.0 said: Euro does nothing to clear this up Been the story of this winter so far. Model chaos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 21 Moderators Share Posted January 21 (edited) Got a northern stream system heading out the beginning of the loop, then the southern stream system heading NE then E. And right behind it, another northern stream system that if it catches up, could be sweet. Since they don't meet up, the southern energy heads on out and the low doesn't deepen as much until offshore as the northern stream energy causes the trough to go neg. The frames after that look pretty weird. Here's the surface Edited January 21 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 25 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Got a northern stream system heading out the beginning of the loop, then the southern stream system heading NE then E. And right behind it, another northern stream system that if it catches up, could be sweet. Since they don't meet up, the southern energy heads on out and the low doesn't deepen as much until offshore as the northern stream energy causes the trough to go neg. The frames after that look pretty weird. Here's the surface Yes, and that high “hightails” it out on that run. Was texting RidkRd yesterday that he is a mjo hog, and i am a nao hog. Just think things are easier with a decent nao. Slows everything down, make “connections” easier, keeps highs around longer. With everything flying around , it’s harder. At least we have something to track. Fun to watch it play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 (edited) To clarify some. The one off the coast was not my original focus. It was the second one that is extending the trough to its NW back towards the LP which is entering C Canada at this frame. If that first one drags the second one along, it's game over. If the second one can handshake the LP in Canada, then maybe Edited January 21 by Undertakerson2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 (edited) So, looking to East Asia Rule for some guidance - we know a 7 day lag applies to what goes on there translating to here. On W side of this image of N PAC We see also a "dual low" look (front runner piece and anchor piece still on the Prefectures of Japan) , the trailing piece holds back the front runner and they do a dance. Where and when that happens is our event EOTM Remember, these "organic" guidance sets are not 1:1 transferable necessarily (tho they can be) Edited January 21 by Undertakerson2.0 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 So out two lows could be said to be binary - each relatively important to the storm dates described. The timing has to slow to allow the handshake earlier. Using both pieces to form a stronger unified piece. At least that's the theory i'm goin with rn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 13 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: So out two lows could be said to be binary - each relatively important to the storm dates described. The timing has to slow to allow the handshake earlier. Using both pieces to form a stronger unified piece. At least that's the theory i'm goin with rn If you are going to plagiarize my needs to slow theory, at least credit it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 9 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said: If you are going to plagiarize my needs to slow theory, at least credit it. OK -"it's so obvious, even RTC-avemen can see it" Better? ha ha But seriously, it's not just a slowing, it's all around timing and there are soooo many pieces. Too many for models to handle RN. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 20 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: OK -"it's so obvious, even RTC-avemen can see it" Better? ha ha But seriously, it's not just a slowing, it's all around timing and there are soooo many pieces. Too many for models to handle RN. Which is why i like a clog . Easier to grab, connect, vs. try to catch a piece of paper in the wind. Deep shit, huh 😀 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 hour ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: So out two lows could be said to be binary - each relatively important to the storm dates described. The timing has to slow to allow the handshake earlier. Using both pieces to form a stronger unified piece. At least that's the theory i'm goin with rn EPS members have varying timing. I realize this snowdepth is more the "pre" storm, but lots of options out there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 Steamin' pile of... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 21 Social Media Crew Share Posted January 21 5 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Steamin' pile of... Snow Crab Legs.. that’s our Super Bowl plan if the Ravens make it. We always try to do a specific city food specialty lol 🦀 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, Penn State said: Snow Crab Legs.. that’s our Super Bowl plan if the Ravens make it. We always try to do a specific city food specialty lol 🦀 Shouldn't that be Blue Crab then? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 Anywho, GEFS showing some inclination towards a slower southern piece Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 5 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Anywho, GEFS showing some inclination towards a slower southern piece So that the front runner can create separation, allowing the northern jet piece over the NW to come in close to shake hands with the pieces left down at MS//AR region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: So that the front runner can create separation, allowing the northern jet piece over the NW to come in close to shake hands with the pieces left down at MS//AR region. I like your analysis as always. Kinda worried about cold air availability though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 (edited) 7 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said: I like your analysis as always. Kinda worried about cold air availability though? correct. That is why I don't like the idea of the first piece to the coast doing it - it has no cold to work with Can it serve to pull down at least some in its wake though? Alternatively, the northern stream comes for piece 2 even sooner and adds that cold to the mix. We're seeing some of "your" slowing in the ENSs so all hope is not lost at this point. Well, that and it's still 8+ days away. Edited January 21 by Undertakerson2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 Last one - further slowing (clogging - as RTC might say) Day 9 away. Most instances would be reason for "buyers" 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 21 Social Media Crew Share Posted January 21 I like the western ridge.. Would assume that has to trend a bit more west, and a bit more amplified. Storm signal is there off the east coast. Doesn’t look like much blocking.. but that doesn’t mean it can’t produce an event for folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 22 Author Share Posted January 22 14 minutes ago, Penn State said: I like the western ridge.. Would assume that has to trend a bit more west, and a bit more amplified. Storm signal is there off the east coast. Doesn’t look like much blocking.. but that doesn’t mean it can’t produce an event for folks. Yes - Poc is alerting also to watching the trending over the west. Seems to be improving so far as storm signal goes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 22 Moderators Share Posted January 22 Well, when the snow map says you're getting 6", post it! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 From DT land. Just saying. Just a messenger throwing info out there. “there has never been an East Coast Snow Storm when the MJO IS IN Phase 6, not happening” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Patiently waiting for Stretch to add “ clog” to the dossier. Been studying up on me French. If my Coal Region ass spelled it wrong, just go with glossary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Acton Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 hours ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Shouldn't that be Blue Crab then? Go Ravens!!👍😎🖤💜🖤💜 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now