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January 28-29, 2024 Mid-Atl/NE Winter Storm Potential


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7 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Still looks like a cutter

CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-continental-conus-comp_radar-04_05Z-20240128_map_noBar-25-1n-10-100.thumb.gif.2c6823b030f25d27c9274faed8a54ae2.gif

Yea weird. When does secondary take over. Almost every model run late has a round one warm dump, then a break, then secondary back end , for PA at least. Don’t think we get snows from first part, despite what rap , etc was showing by noon-2 pm.

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2 hours ago, StretchCT said:

Oooff, thats a lot of qpf. We don't really need another 2" of rain around here.

image.thumb.png.7799c4a71bee779b639ce57577505e73.png

We have about 3" of snow on the ground, bit I'm sure there's 4" of liquid equivalent.

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I really wonder where some of these folks think the cold air is coming from and how much moisture remains to accumulate that much. Outside of terrain it is going to be extremely difficult to get more than 1-2" and that may even be pushing it. Not good sign on some of these short range models when you see areas of central and southern NY in rain and the 850mb freezing line bisects NY. You want that to be down to -2C area to get a solid chance at snow. 

Hope next time we get a storm to roll in like this there is at least a high better positioned north of us to filter in the cold better. Quite the heavy wet snow producer for Catskills and Berkshires hope those areas fair well and do not lose power.

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5 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Had to check it was updated, because it looks just like it's did last night.

Screenshot_20240128-063713.thumb.png.3d5a45c79bdcf2f0c42558413756827e.png

6z's backing off the southerly "cold" push rather quickly. And they are still too "cold", I say. (For PA)

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I just love living in the southern mid Atlantic,  in the space of 75 miles. You ca n experience all forms of weather. 
 

from LWX 

 

A brief period of gusty east to northeast winds is expected
along/east of I-95 this morning into early afternoon, with gusts up
to 20-25mph. The heaviest rain ends late this morning to early
afternoon. After, cloudy skies and a steady drizzle/light rain will
continue through the afternoon and evening. Temperatures today
remain in the 40s, though some spots in central VA and far southern
MD could reach 50F. Temperatures in the Alleghenies drop late this
afternoon as precip transitions to snow above 2500 feet.

As the low moves offshore winds begin to turn north, then northwest
this evening as a cold front sweeps through the area tonight.
Lingering moisture and cold air advecting in could lead to a mix of
rain and snow for higher elevations west of US-15 and in northeast
MD late tonight, though no accumulation. For the Alleghenies, snow
amounts of 1-2" are expected through tonight, along a few tenths of
an inch of snow is expected in the northern Blue Ridge. Some
freezing rain could mix in tonight in parts of the Alleghenies,
though any ice accretion would be a glaze to a couple hundredths of
an inch. Temperatures drop below freezing in the mountains, and in
the mid to upper 30s elsewhere. NW winds pick up during the second
half of the night, gusting to 20-25mph, and up to 35mph in the
mountains.

 

Edited by Wtkidz
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Wonder if we will see a spectacular snow capped mountain here in town. The pws reporting 34 is 2000'ish in elevation with radar showing at least a snow mix if now wet snow now up there. In the valley, upper 30s, 40 at 500'ish elevation.

Screenshot_20240128-071250_Chrome.jpg

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Temps in Vernon, NJ dropped 2 degrees to 35 in last hour with rain/snow mix at 600ft.  I’m going to take a drive on the road behind MountainCreek ski resort at about 1200ft to see if it’s all snow up there.

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So far, zero surprises in the Binghamton area: rain with temperatures slow to fall: typical late-November/ early-December conditions . They will be lucky to even get two inches of snow in the higher elevations out of this system.

 

 

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A foggy, snowy start to this weather event with 32ºF as this morning's low temperature and the temperature remains 32ºF with snow now starting to accumulate.  The NWS/B-N Office has issued a Winter Storm Warning for this area and elevations > 500' should see plowable snow.  I may see +6" from this storm.  🚜 is down (fuel) and my backup plow guy is overwhelmed by demand and he can not find/get another driver/helper.  I/We will probably be plowed in until Wednesday, but We are well "stocked."🤪 

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So far an inch of rain in the bucket and half inch of sludge on the table and deck.  The interesting part is when I went out to empty the bucket, I came back inside, looked at my sleeve of my sweatshirt and felt my hair and it was covered in snow.  It doesn't look like snow out there, but if I stick my arm out, it gets pasted in the last remnants of snowflakes.  My guess is the tops of the hills here are accumulating more. 

35°

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Just now, StretchCT said:

So far an inch of rain in the bucket and half inch of sludge on the table and deck.  The interesting part is when I went out to empty the bucket, I came back inside, looked at my sleeve of my sweatshirt and felt my hair and it was covered in snow.  It doesn't look like snow out there, but if I stick my arm out, it gets pasted in the last remnants of snowflakes.  My guess is the tops of the hills here are accumulating more. 

35°

Yes, this will be a fun watch . Some areas north of me already flipped over. 
For people that are supposed to flip over, keep an eye on the wind direction for a change. For here , it is currently ENE. When it becomes NE with the coastal, then we should flip. They have changeover for our area around 1 pm. I am further nw and some elevation, so thinking earlier .

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