TLChip Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 (edited) Close ups, solid snowfall up north. Edited January 27 by TLChip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Shame this one didn’t have cold air available further south, as they keep upping totals. PARD seems to be in line for a few with his location and elevation hopefully. Backender. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=PHI&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Since it slow in here, hope no one minds brief off topic post. Good friend that lives most of year in Boca that i am going to visit , said it was so cold down there earlier this week - that iguanas were falling off of the trees! Didn’t know the cold had pushed that far south. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 27 Author Share Posted January 27 7 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said: Since it slow in here, hope no one minds brief off topic post. Good friend that lives most of year in Boca that i am going to visit , said it was so cold down there earlier this week - that iguanas were falling off of the trees! Didn’t know the cold had pushed that far south. Ex supervisor from the work days moved down 3 years ago. Said it was cold there the other day. They donned parkas and mittens - 56 degrees. Haha 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 14 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Ex supervisor from the work days moved down 3 years ago. Said it was cold there the other day. They donned parkas and mittens - 56 degrees. Haha Not talking about guy that worked at Brookside? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 https://share.newsbreak.com/607orgp9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 27 Author Share Posted January 27 8 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said: Not talking about guy that worked at Brookside? No, Tommy D was never a supervisor of mine - we worked in different departments under the same agency umbrella Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 27 Moderators Share Posted January 27 Upton noting the shift north in the models Model guidance has continued to show trend north with the track of the low. The airmass in place is marginal for accumulating snow even across the interior. While there is lingering high pressure over New England as the low approaches tonight, it quickly weakens and moves offshore by Sunday morning. The middle level low centers at 850 and 700 mb tracking to our west is another factor that is strongly leaning against any significant accumulating snow with this event. There will be a decent push of warming aloft leading to marginal thermal profiles with a warm nose somewhere between 925 and 800 mb. Some of the deterministic models can run a bit cold and slow with these features and have noted a trend in the higher resolution guidance indicating this warm push occurring Sunday morning. The track of the middle level low centers to our west favors a warmer thermal profile. NAM trends south Euro holds Spoiler RGEM holds Spoiler ICON a touch south Spoiler Ohhhh, they must be talking about the GFS which starts off with it snowing in ACY and now has pushed further north to I84 Spoiler 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 27 Moderators Share Posted January 27 EPS remains steady Even the GFS Ens are pretty steady, ignoring yesterdays snow in Maine. Maybe a touch north at 6z in PA SREF has been inching north though.Maybe that's what they're seeing. But not so much difference in NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 27 Moderators Share Posted January 27 NBM is probably what Upton is relying on here. It never had much of the way of snow in Uptons FA and they never really put any meaningful accumulation forecast out there. This will be a coup for the NBS if it holds (which is a strong possibility). Or if we end up with over 3 inches here and snow in the immediate NYC area, a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 27 Moderators Share Posted January 27 (edited) 20 minutes ago, StretchCT said: The middle level low centers at 850 and 700 mb tracking to our west is another factor that is strongly leaning against any significant accumulating snow with this event. I do see a Coc on the 700mb that isn't defined with isobars but is noticable in the wind barbs around hr 36 that heads out of NEPA into Albany area, but that reforms south of LI. 850 mb I'm not sure what they are seeing. Most of our storms have the 700/850/925 centers to our west at some point. If they pass to the NW, thats when it will rain/zr/sleet in nearly all cases. edit: not sure that isobar is the right word considering the entire map is the same pressure, but different heights, but you know what I mean. Is there an isoheight? Edited January 27 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 27 Moderators Share Posted January 27 Oh that energy over the lakes coming in late swinging down to VA. Could have been a contender. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, StretchCT said: Oh that energy over the lakes coming in late swinging down to VA. Could have been a contender. yeah too late, now it looks like its own clipper that heads ots way south in the 30-1st time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 27 Moderators Share Posted January 27 2 minutes ago, TLChip said: yeah too late, now it looks like its own clipper that heads ots way south in the 30-1st time frame That clipper is just entering MN/WI during this time frame. Will try to work some magic for CPA to get a few inches. Maybe DC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 27 Moderators Share Posted January 27 One more then chores.. think its only me here today anyway. I'd have said this would be a cutter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Sunday night frozen mention by LWX . Not much bu T it’s there. SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A large upper trough over the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley this afternoon will push northeast toward the Mid-Atlantic/OH Valley tonight, eventually moving off the Eastern Seaboard Sunday night. An area of low pressure at the surface develops over the Deep South today, then moves quickly toward and over our area tonight through Sunday night. A cold front is dragged through the area Sunday night as the surface low moves offshore of the Delmarva. Persistent light to moderate rain is expected to overspread the area from southwest to northeast this afternoon and early evening. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1.25" to 1.50" are expected, with isolated higher amounts around 2" possible. Widespread flooding is not expected, though urban, low-lying, and flood-prone areas could experience minor flooding issues. The heaviest rain is expected tonight. As the low passes overhead on Sunday, rain becomes more showery in nature, especially south of I-66/US-48. Rain chances remain high on Sunday, though there will be periods through the day with only a drizzle or dry conditions. High temperatures Sunday will be normal for late January, in the 40s. The most uncertain part of the forecast is Sunday afternoon into Sunday night as the low pushes offshore. Winds veer NW/N, bringing in a colder airmass, while most of the guidance still has moisture lingering through early Monday morning. Precip is likely to transition to snow in the mountains Sunday afternoon, and there could be snow across portions of north-central and northeast MD Sunday night. Snow amounts of 1-2" are possible in parts of the Alleghenies. For other elevated locations it is too early to estimate possible snow totals given the high uncertainty in the thermal profile. There could be come light freezing rain Sunday morning into early Sunday afternoon in the elevated valleys out west (eastern Garrett, western Allegany, western Mineral, western Grant counties specifically). Winter Weather Advisories might be needed for some of those areas, but confidence is too low to issues at this moment. Conditions dry out Monday morning as a cold front sweeps through the area. Gusty NW winds develop late Monday morning into Monday evening, with gusts of 25-35mph possible areawide, and slightly higher in the mountains. Near normal temperatures Monday as highs reach the 40s to possibly around 50F in Central VA. Seasonal cold air returns Monday night dropping lows to the 20s areawide. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 17 minutes ago, StretchCT said: That clipper is just entering MN/WI during this time frame. Will try to work some magic for CPA to get a few inches. Maybe DC? Ahh my bad I confused the two pieces there. Yeah I think that lake piece might give clapper some love. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 38 minutes ago, StretchCT said: One more then chores.. think its only me here today anyway. I'd have said this would be a cutter. Yea and someone else had mentioned, it ends up being a dream track for areas away from coast, but that high just had to he perfectly timed, same with the late energy. Just never got my “clog”. This one was a Daryl Strawbery storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Hope you can get a couple inches out of this one , Clap. So close. Even if it a non- sticker, still nice to watch it snow for several hours. A mood storm for bettrr times down the road. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 42 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said: Hope you can get a couple inches out of this one , Clap. So close. Even if it a non- sticker, still nice to watch it snow for several hours. A mood storm for bettrr times down the road. Meh, it is what it is. It's actually been an above average January, so I'm just being selfish at this point. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 27 Moderators Share Posted January 27 Euro snow trend - I'm on border of 0-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 27 Admin Share Posted January 27 2 hours ago, StretchCT said: I do see a Coc on the 700mb that isn't defined with isobars but is noticable in the wind barbs around hr 36 that heads out of NEPA into Albany area, but that reforms south of LI. 850 mb I'm not sure what they are seeing. Most of our storms have the 700/850/925 centers to our west at some point. If they pass to the NW, thats when it will rain/zr/sleet in nearly all cases. edit: not sure that isobar is the right word considering the entire map is the same pressure, but different heights, but you know what I mean. Is there an isoheight? I believe the term isopleth works best, as it simple refers to a line connecting points of equal value. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 (edited) Holly updated. For first time puts very light accums in for Pocs. Have some elevation here, so still think we get a little late surprise . Also , wish she would stop continually using the phrase, “ in terms of sensible weather”. What’s the alternative? Non - sensical weather? https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=PHI&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Edited January 27 by RTC3-LAST CHANCE Missed word Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 27 Admin Share Posted January 27 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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