Jump to content

January 28-29, 2024 Mid-Atl/NE Winter Storm Potential


Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, JDClapper said:

Well, 850s are colder than 18z on NAM at 7am Sunday.

trend-nam-2024012700-f036.850th.us_ne.gif

Clap, stop begging. You are too good a poster😀 .

i updated my weather blog: http:rtcwtfnononelsehasaclue/weather.

”thin stripe of moderate snow from eastern Ontario through Eastern tip of Toronto, then all of New Brunswick”. If you live there. Why? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Moderators

Every once in a while I'll post on a low that isn't where it should be.  This one, is right where it should be, where the temps are so different. 8 degrees difference in NJ at 850 to 15 degrees difference at 925. 

image.thumb.png.50c9bbdba4dcfc7a1369f180ef1ce242.pngimage.thumb.png.8d3934938eae961c52f03a25d4bcf6f2.png

Edited by StretchCT
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

Temps like these during model surface precip like this doesn't scream high end totals.. at least to me.

floop-nam-2024012700.sfct-imp.us_ne.gif

floop-nam-2024012700.ref1km_ptype.us_ne.gif

I think the snow totals will be more in the range of the snowfall depth positive change.  The differences between this map and the snowfall map are pretty big in eastern Mass.

Quote

snodpc_acc-imp.us_ne.png

 

  • LIKE 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Get snow you guys up north.Then take a deep breath for s few days. Then blocking going to start setting up shortly after . Then shit’s gonna start getting real. We haven’t experienced that when we want it- Feb, not Mid March into April, in years. And more region wide. The suppression vs. no threads are soo much more fun 😀😀😀

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Admin

GYX

Quote
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Sunday should be mainly cloudy as well, as our next system
arrives from the SW. Initially we will be dealing with broad WAA
associated with the closed 500 MB near OH, which will bring
light precip into srn NH around midday or so. This could start
as RA or RASN mix, especially at lower elevations. Eventually
this precip shift slowly NE into SW ME and central NH before
sunset, but should stay on the lighter side through the daylight
hours. Highs will generally run in the 30s once again, with
upper 30s in interior W ME, where it will remain dry most of the
day.

As you may have heard, the models have not be in good agreement
on this system, not very internally consistent either. The
ECMWF was been more aggressive with its phasing of the upper
level systems and development of the sfc low S of New England
Sunday night, but has back off a bit with the latest 00Z run.
Meanwhile the GFS phases the system /albeit weakly/ late tonight
into Sunday morning to our S and W thus leaving it more of
stable low as it passes to our S before phasing again too far to
our E to have any significant impact. I have leaned toward the
Euro in previous forecasts and will continue to do so, with the
bulk of the snow falling overnight Sunday into early Monday
morning /commute time/. Still, this leaves the highest accums in
srn NH, where a watch has been issued. The Euro would still
produce something near 6” of snow, so this seems reasonable
given the uncertainty. A swath of 3-6” is forecast into central
NH and into SW ME including York/Cumberland counties, with lower
amounts to the N and E of this, Sunday temps will likely hover
near freezing, or just below, in the areas of the most snow, so
ratios should be closer to 10-1 if nor lower in srn NH.

On Monday morning, the heaviest snow will shift to the E and
should remain move mostly offshore later in the morning. With
just light snow winding down during the afternoon. Highs will
pop up a few degrees, especially as the snow lightens up, and
could push into the mid 30s in the S, but will mainly in the
mid 20s to around 30 elsewhere. Also, gusty NE winds will
develop late Sunday night as the low deepens offshore, and will
be especially noticeable near the coast. Gusts to around 30-35
mph will be possible during the day Monday.

&&

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...