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January 28-29, 2024 Mid-Atl/NE Winter Storm Potential


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4 hours ago, Rickrd said:

AI model for time frame. Nice high to the west pseudo banana. Right in the slot  

IMG_8759.webp

Not sure which AI this is. The ECMWF site doesn't make it simple for us to just click and hold to download the image. If you use this and "save image" it will have the legend and model info.

Screenshot_20240121-033712.thumb.png.b2a1f3ed0b4d3fe18ab6c2325cae8d4d.png

 Also, I'm not sure if everyone knows there are 5 AI models, again, this might be the result of the quirks of the site with regard to bookmarking it 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A Machine learning models"]}

Here's all 5 from our robot overlords, valid for 1/29 @ 12z

 

 

 

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8 hours ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

To all the younger posters out there, take a pic of this entire post, frame it, and put it next to your bed. Then next time you reach for the pipe or bottle , just look at it 👀👀

Our old buddy Tom Di - must be rubbin off on me. 

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1 hour ago, Wtkidz said:

06 Z GFS

Well it forms down south , tries to come up the cost  , then goes out to sea.  Of course the will change many many times

floop-gfs-2024012106.prateptype_cat-imp.conus.gif

Troffing in the NE Pacific needs to ease up a little I'd say.  It begins to pump a western ridge, but the Pacific gets too pushy, and the ridge gets nudged east before collapsing, and we get late storm development.

gfs_z500a_namer_fh120-264.thumb.gif.a2ec9a5a6f9d44cf75a450ace58f3ec2.gif

They are going to be doing flights in the Pacific, I don't see it helping out a ton, but it might narrow the spread somewhat.

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24 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Troffing in the NE Pacific needs to ease up a little I'd say.  It begins to pump a western ridge, but the Pacific gets too pushy, and the ridge gets nudged east before collapsing, and we get late storm development.

gfs_z500a_namer_fh120-264.thumb.gif.a2ec9a5a6f9d44cf75a450ace58f3ec2.gif

They are going to be doing flights in the Pacific, I don't see it helping out a ton, but it might narrow the spread somewhat.

Very good analysis of the "push" MJ, indeed when we look the Western Ridge for help, it's best if it can maintain its proximal structure  and not "fold over" at the crest. (we being the entire region not only N NE) 

It may be a very close thing, as the east asia jet extension is only beginning, at that time period, to split after having "flooded" our warm period leading into this. (that split, in turn, seems to last and enhance the prospect of much more winter as we head into February) 

Another fly in the ointment is near zero antecedent cold - any wide spread snow storm will have to rely on time of day and/or strengthening to have enough cold. 

 

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This mornings GFS and EPS control strangely in sync in the big picture. Details are still off. 

1-210zgfs.thumb.png.0de7d1e697764f4b8a52b561417bfcb2.png1-21eps.thumb.png.803af6fed404aaae96ce33f419761c53.png

12z gfs a little south. 

1-2112zgfs.thumb.png.a02563905586e17e6ec5262a80245a71.png

But based on the dates, this isn't the right storm?  There isn't really much going on in the 29-31 period on this mornings runs.

 

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1 minute ago, StretchCT said:

This mornings GFS and EPS control strangely in sync in the big picture. Details are still off. 

1-210zgfs.thumb.png.0de7d1e697764f4b8a52b561417bfcb2.png1-21eps.thumb.png.803af6fed404aaae96ce33f419761c53.png

12z gfs a little south. 

1-2112zgfs.thumb.png.a02563905586e17e6ec5262a80245a71.png

But based on the dates, this isn't the right storm?  There isn't really much going on in the 29-31 period on this mornings runs.

 

My original post ignored the one you are showing and focused more on the fully phased monster shown on the runs of the creation date. This one is not a phased stormimage.thumb.png.c178467b2208e595fd039adc0a05427f.png- hence

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Just now, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Though my initial post also showed the predecessor storms on the GGEM and Euro, it was to mention how they saw this all differently than the GFS. 

It is a bit "messy" at this juncture

So the storm that hits on the 28th 29th isn't the unphased piece of the southern energy? There's a northern stream piece out in front by Maine and another northern sw over Saskatchewan/Montana.

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4 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

So the storm that hits on the 28th 29th isn't the unphased piece of the southern energy? There's a northern stream piece out in front by Maine and another northern sw over Saskatchewan/Montana.

Nevermind.  I see what you were talking about now that I went back and looked at yesterday's 0z gfs. Its another southern piece that phases really hits later on the 30th/31st.   

image.thumb.png.16942289ee81cd038a98f88138d2d462.png

Edited by StretchCT
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