LUCC Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 (edited) 33 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Second run in a row for CIPS (00z version) to put Jonas in the analogs I don't think I have ever seen a CIPS analog work out for a storm. LMAO Edited January 25 by LUCC 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, LUCC said: I don't think I have ever seen a CIPS analog work out for a storm. LMAO They are always so spread out, not sure how it's possible that none (of the dozen or so) didn't play out So far as a monster storm analog that worked, I also cannot think of one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LUCC Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just now, Undertakerson2.0 said: They are always so spread out, not sure how it's possible that none (of the dozen or so) didn't play out So far as a monster storm analog that worked, I also cannot think of one. If only we had a '96 redux for every CIPS '96 analog. 🤪 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 The point of analogs isn’t to repeat an analog it’s weighted ranking of previous atmospheric conditions that produced a storm. Analogs are an organic way to help forecast. I don’t know where or why people think analogs are any worse of a tool as a deterministic model 5-7d+ lead 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Analogs are meant to help sort through the medium long range model gibberish. Dont look at any single analog or deterministic model and think it’s solution use the probabilistic options on cips to determine how much potential a certain period has I know for a fact we as a forum know how to do this. We’ve been doing it since the Accu days. Instant gratification in the weather modeling world is a mirage. Don’t fall for it, come to your own conclusion using all tools at hand. Cheers! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 6 minutes ago, Poco said: The point of analogs isn’t to repeat an analog it’s weighted ranking of previous atmospheric conditions that produced a storm. Analogs are an organic way to help forecast. I don’t know where or why people think analogs are any worse of a tool as a deterministic model 5-7d+ lead Weather World PSU uses analog forecasting for a segment they call Long Shots. It gets crazy somtimes. Like maybe it was dry in the southeast for 3 months, based on that, they forecast our February weather, and they are forecasting this in like August!.. cold,/warm, snowy, dry.. overall they tend to hit a forecast maybe 66%+ of the time using that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 3 minutes ago, Poco said: Analogs are meant to help sort through the medium long range model gibberish. Dont look at any single analog or deterministic model and think it’s solution use the probabilistic options on cips to determine how much potential a certain period has I know for a fact we as a forum know how to do this. We’ve been doing it since the Accu days. Instant gratification in the weather modeling world is a mirage. Don’t fall for it, come to your own conclusion using all tools at hand. Cheers! Looking at those maps, looks like nearly a 0% chance of measurable snow north of PA. Its more likely to snow in VA/MD, than NY/CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, JDClapper said: Weather World PSU uses analog forecasting for a segment they call Long Shots. It gets crazy somtimes. Like maybe it was dry in the southeast for 3 months, based on that, they forecast our February weather, and they are forecasting this in like August!.. cold,/warm, snowy, dry.. overall they tend to hit a forecast maybe 66%+ of the time using that. Ok, that’s not them using single storm analogs to forecast an upcoming storm. They are using seasonal analogs (probably seasonal composite analogs) which is even a bit different from the analogs cips does for short and 7-10d range 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 4 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Weather World PSU uses analog forecasting for a segment they call Long Shots. It gets crazy somtimes. Like maybe it was dry in the southeast for 3 months, based on that, they forecast our February weather, and they are forecasting this in like August!.. cold,/warm, snowy, dry.. overall they tend to hit a forecast maybe 66%+ of the time using that. CPC also uses analogs for the LR 8-14D Those WW ones are fun at best. See if they can hit the farmer's cow, old Bessie or hit the taget/bulleye The one made in Aug was for a snowy December. Poor Bessie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 (edited) 10 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Looking at those maps, looks like nearly a 0% chance of measurable snow north of PA. It’s more likely to snow in VA/MD, than NY/CT. They produce them from deterministic 0z gfs run so they are going to heavily favor what that run looked like the ull at 12z went from ofc Boston to off South Carolina and a strong ull appeared northern Midwest. We dont have much medium range continuity right now. So even using analogs is gonna be tough at current. I’m only stopping in to try and help guys, I’m fine explaining how to use weather forecasting tools to people but I know who our experienced posters are on here so if I see some bs I’ll call it bs Edited January 25 by Poco 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 (edited) CIPS had the 83 nor’easter yesterday. Still waiting to see mesos start today, see if we can get some idea of the start. Edited January 25 by TLChip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Shit I’m in the wrong thread 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 4 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: CPC also uses analogs for the LR 8-14D Those WW ones are fun at best. See if they can hit the farmer's cow, old Bessie or hit the taget/bulleye The one made in Aug was for a snowy December. Poor Bessie Gah! Well, theres some of that 33% then haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Thought I was posting in the one for the 31st. If Mods want to sort out my posts be my guest, I’m just stopping in while I’m trying to take care of other stuff so pardon me. Crazy times 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 Pretty warm set of 12z runs so far gang 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just now, Poco said: Thought I was posting in the one for the 31st. If Mods want to sort out my posts be my guest, I’m just stopping in while I’m trying to take care of other stuff so pardon me. Crazy times I think you’re good for now. No one opened the 31st yet and everyone’s been in here anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just now, Undertakerson2.0 said: Pretty warm set of 12z runs so far gang Windshield wiper effect for the next 24h? Yesterday was a large shift south for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, Poco said: Thought I was posting in the one for the 31st. If Mods want to sort out my posts be my guest, I’m just stopping in while I’m trying to take care of other stuff so pardon me. Crazy times Dates getting crazy, originally this thread was centering there. Then the models did a major time warp thing and the gang discussed phase one while Phase two was supposed to be "nada". Now we have both AFTER I adjusted dates to accomodate going with the flow so to speak. And there's no thread for the second one now. Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Wait so this is the thread for the 31st? Instead of opening a new one for the 29 this got moved back? I thought UTS did a very fine job outlining the potential the 31st had. Not sure why this got moved but that’s fine it’s up to kids. It might be the initial long wave but the 31st -1st period remains and has always remained highly interesting. Take care, sorry for any confusion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, Poco said: Wait so this is the thread for the 31st? Instead of opening a new one for the 29 this got moved back? I thought UTS did a very fine job outlining the potential the 31st had. Not sure why this got moved but that’s fine it’s up to kids. It might be the initial long wave but the 31st -1st period remains and has always remained highly interesting. Take care, sorry for any confusion Blame the date shifts on me RTC already did and likely will again so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 I’m so confused 😢😢 just when i thought i wasn’t. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 It’s this guys fault… time travel and all 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 Just now, TLChip said: It’s this guys fault… time travel and all Stupid Time Stone - always mucking things up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 25 Admin Share Posted January 25 38 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: They are always so spread out, not sure how it's possible that none (of the dozen or so) didn't play out So far as a monster storm analog that worked, I also cannot think of one. If I remember correctly, Feb 2017 CPC analogs had beginning of Feb 1978 as 2 of the top 4 analogs. We got pretty buried up here that week, as I remember it well with my daughter being born in the midst. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 25 Admin Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, MaineJay said: If I remember correctly, Feb 2017 CPC analogs had beginning of Feb 1978 as 2 of the top 4 analogs. We got pretty buried up here that week, as I remember it well with my daughter being born in the midst. But, i do think it's more the exception than the rule. It was more than one storm too that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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