Squepp Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 ATM, it looks like this will be a mason dixon on north winter storm. I am rooting for you all up there. Hope it pans out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 5 hours ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Looks like Euro could not repeat its Thanos interpretation and bring the several into one cohesive bundle, like it did at 12z. It didn't close off as strongly as the earlier run so it was less than spectacular - 552-549 level did not close off cleanly, so it was a "late boomer". With so many vorts within the longwave, we've seen "improvement" yet no real move towards total consolidation -and without that, the column cannot cool sufficiently to overcome to the background warm state conditions we have going into it. Back before AGW type conditions, this would have been lead pipe cinch to have been at the very least, a significant winter storm if not major. We can't lament that - it is what it is - we can only deal with the reality of being in intractable warmth and it will take either a large storm or a perfectly timed one to pull off major snow. I, for one, can wait until we turn more favorable in Feb when the MJO helps turn things around. Please don't go there with AGW. Read the book "Unsettled" by Steven E. Koonin. I won't get into the details, but X input does not equal Y output. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LUCC Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 (edited) 12z NAM isn't as cold or qpf laiden as 6z. 🙄 Edited January 25 by LUCC 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted January 25 Moderators Share Posted January 25 RGEM delivering the goods for us northern folk.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted January 25 Moderators Share Posted January 25 12 minutes ago, LUCC said: 12z NAM isn't as cold or qpf laiden as 6z. 🙄 2 mb stronger and SLP located in basically the same place...seems odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 15 minutes ago, Rickrd said: Please don't go there with AGW. Read the book "Unsettled" by Steven E. Koonin. I won't get into the details, but X input does not equal Y output. I'll redact that part of the statement for it seems to have lead you to believe I have some sort of agenda in that regard. Also I misunderstood the acronym to be less accusatory than it is otherwise perceived. In using the word "type" behind the acronym I simply was re-stating the FACT that we're in a historical record super warm back ground state. Thus, it will take more than our typical scenarios to produce winter -as evidenced by our having most of the requisite elements of what we know to drive winter storms. That being a decent High in Canada. shortwave track South of Mason Dixon over to the benchmark, and a strengthening storm. The end. 3 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted January 25 Moderators Share Posted January 25 2 minutes ago, telejunkie said: RGEM delivering the goods for us northern folk.... Playing this scenario out, I would expect a pretty big push of that blue line south in the next image as the HP is pushing down from the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 18 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: I'll redact that part of the statement for it seems to have lead you to believe I have some sort of agenda in that regard. Also I misunderstood the acronym to be less accusatory than it is otherwise perceived. In using the word "type" behind the acronym I simply was re-stating the FACT that we're in a historical record super warm back ground state. Thus, it will take more than our typical scenarios to produce winter -as evidenced by our having most of the requisite elements of what we know to drive winter storms. That being a decent High in Canada. shortwave track South of Mason Dixon over to the benchmark, and a strengthening storm. The end. Yeah I think it can and will get cold again some time. It's just not cold right now. Very historically warm. It might even take until some things change with the ocean currents but sooner or later it will. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 24 minutes ago, telejunkie said: RGEM delivering the goods for us northern folk.... ICON pretty north too. Whether thats good or bad (to have ICON agree), I leave up to the individual to decide. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 2 minutes ago, JDClapper said: ICON pretty north too. Whether thats good or bad (to have ICON agree), I leave up to the individual to decide. Lol It won't matter if Euro repeats - as yesterday showed us (LOL) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 I personally would take this GFS and run. A nice hold over until February brings the goods. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 listen up gang ole dm has been pasted over the years but just watch the 12z runs fall line with the latest OPC 96hr surface prog 🤪 Benchmark at 993 mb 7:00 am DST Monday 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 2 minutes ago, JDClapper said: I personally would take this GFS and run. A nice hold over until February brings the goods. Ya, positively tilted troughs arent a good thing for us at our latitude in mid-atlantics. Need a tough axis neutral over Mississippi and then to swing negatve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheComet Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 23 minutes ago, 1816 said: Yeah I think it can and will get cold again some time. It's just not cold right now. Very historically warm. It might even take until some things change with the ocean currents but sooner or later it will. To God's ears, hope this assessment is correct, we can't predict future with certainty but hoping for the best. Back on topic: I didn't know MJO could have so much influence this Winter with El Nino. It's like the MJO either makes or breaks the chances of winter weather during winter, this storm being an example for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 Oh what might have been... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 10 minutes ago, Doorman said: listen up gang ole dm has been pasted over the years but just watch the 12z runs fall line with the latest OPC 96hr surface prog 🤪 Benchmark at 993 mb 7:00 am DST Monday I used this line a long time ago back in the Accuweather forums. Who's down with OPC? I'm down with OPC 🙂 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 5 minutes ago, Rickrd said: Ya, positively tilted troughs arent a good thing for us at our latitude in mid-atlantics. Need a tough axis neutral over Mississippi and then to swing negatve. Yea but as i said last night, that is a double edged sword. This is such a fine line we are walking. Neutral too early = warm. Warm based system. We are asking a miracle from that miracle high. if we had entrenched cold, then yea go neutral , then negative early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 (edited) 1 minute ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said: Yea but as i said last night, that is a double edged sword. This is such a fine line we are walking. Neutral too early = warm. Warm based system. We are asking a miracle from that miracle high. if we had entrenched cold, then yea go neutral , then negative early. I actually understood that. Must be my meds In seriousness though, the GFS continues past the first wave and then allow the "too late" part to drop in an do a mini blow up all on its own. I actually see more snowfall from that than the first. Edited January 25 by Undertakerson2.0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anthonyweather Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Keep an eye on that trailingn energy / clipper system Tuesday PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, Anthonyweather said: Keep an eye on that trailingn energy / clipper system Tuesday PM Just a few things to resolve. In Dr Strange Multiverse - the 29th storm goes to set up at 50/50 thus showing what RTC mentioned about cold air neutrality (or some such) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 (edited) 8 minutes ago, RobB said: I used this line a long time ago back in the Accuweather forums. Who's down with OPC?.I'm down with OPC 🙂 and you know me....I'm the ODB Holly Disco----- LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A trough moving through the Tennessee River valley will approach the region Saturday Night into Sunday. An area of low pressure will move up the Appalachians with a secondary low forming near the VA/NC border and tracking offshore. This will bring a period of light to moderate rain for most of the area Saturday night through Sunday, with the potential for wintry weather in northern NJ and the Poconos in that timeframe. The 00z deterministic runs showed a good thump of snowfall but thinking some of the snowfall totals output is probably overdone given the track of the low close to the NJ/DE coast and ratios likely worse than 10:1. Thinking the better chance for snow will come Sunday night/Monday morning on the backside of the system as colder air works its way in and a more favorable time of day. We will have to keep an eye on this system as the weekend approaches given some of the more bullish deterministic guidance. Thinking winds don`t look to be too much of a factor at least on land. With some onshore flow, there may be some tidal concerns but too early to speculate on what the impacts will be. Edited January 25 by Doorman 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 (edited) Second run in a row for CIPS (00z version) to put Jonas in the analogs Edited January 25 by Undertakerson2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squepp Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 5 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Second run in a row for CIPS (00z version) to put Jonas in the analogs 🤣 Thats nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 The calm before the storm tomorrow looks great to help my winter blues . Wish January didn’t have 45 days in it. We warm before and after this one. Just really hard to get a region wide snowstorm in that scenario. Sometimes history is the best forcaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 25 minutes ago, RobB said: I used this line a long time ago back in the Accuweather forums. Who's down with OPC? I'm down with OPC 🙂 Yeah you know me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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