Moderators telejunkie Posted January 25 Moderators Share Posted January 25 31 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Interesting wrinkle in that lead vort seen around NC/SC in earlier runs...seems to be ironing itself out and creating more wrinkling over KY/TN. Still comes down to trough dynamics, but just an interesting trend.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted January 25 Moderators Share Posted January 25 31 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said: Thoughts on the deeper dig? That being said , purty western ridge, I like it...think it provides more chance for trough to gain some room to get neutral a bit earlier....but that may only help more northern folks...(?) So....can we rewind a minute....DM is at our door? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, telejunkie said: I like it...think it provides more chance for trough to gain some room to get neutral a bit earlier....but that may only help more northern folks...(?) So....can we rewind a minute....DM is at our door? Oh he’s here. That’s great! Early dig, you guys rock . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted January 25 Admin Share Posted January 25 2 hours ago, Snowadelphia said: Shrinkage 1 hour ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said: Not trying to be a downer. need tonight and tomorrow night’ s storms to clear, then we gonna need slow down. Hate thread the needle comments, but this is . We are trying to time that high perfectly for E Pa and nearby. Tough ask. Clap land and northeast to a certain point seem better. 4 days out, so that 1040 miracle high can speed skate in early and press down , but Vegas odds on that ?? Nice analysis 51 minutes ago, Rickrd said: Energy packs just missing each other I believe on 0z GFS. Close but no cigar on this one. The S/W is not ashore yet. We have a lack of sampling. I would hold off and see what happens over the next couple of days. I would say this likely trends worse as more data comes in, but, we shall see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted January 25 Admin Share Posted January 25 I have never seen such expansive Dense Fog Advisories 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 9 minutes ago, Uscg Ast said: I have never seen such expansive Dense Fog Advisories Ya. I was checking that out earlier. Neither have I. Gloom and doom stuff. The atmospheric snow eater is huge! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 7 hours ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said: Whatever, dispatching coverage early for Winter Storm Kelly😍. UT , you cover Cap Region- just don’t overdo it with the galoshes and stuff. Bad look. RickRd, You got Bingy! Great spot for this one. May never get out though. RC going to ground zero, The Port. Clap said i can crash at his place. Tito’s , or the new bomb- Wood Reserve smoked. Need some volunteers up north- step up! Good luck all! Can I at least wear my cowboy hat?? When you visit the Port -just don't infringe on Claps' bowling night. 6 hours ago, JDClapper said: Getting the couch ready for ya! We can measure the slushy coating together. No matter which way I read that, I can't unread it now. 4 hours ago, Tater said: I love how that backend snow around Maryland just appears out of nowhere. Backend snow is fake news. It's not your average backend snow that forms from a deformation band of the exiting storm. It's a late arrival upper level energy and those nearly always deliver the goods (as Snobal might say) 4 hours ago, StretchCT said: Not buying the qpf on this one. Why is the northwest side of the low dry? I like the high, the low. Doesn’t go boom or anything but Disjointed CTP screw zone - happens when the energy has to translate from inland to coast. GFS is having a hard time with this Dr. Strange Multiverse look. 4 hours ago, telejunkie said: Interesting wrinkle in that lead vort seen around NC/SC in earlier runs...seems to be ironing itself out and creating more wrinkling over KY/TN. Still comes down to trough dynamics, but just an interesting trend.... "Wrinkle" - I used to call them "sags". ST would roast me for using such fancy meteo terms - but that's how we M.O.M.* edumacated cats be. (* Mail Order Meteorologist) 3 hours ago, Uscg Ast said: I have never seen such expansive Dense Fog Advisories 3 hours ago, Rickrd said: Ya. I was checking that out earlier. Neither have I. Gloom and doom stuff. The atmospheric snow eater is huge! Reminds me of the great snow feast of January 1996 - real Basil Rathbone as Sherlock Holmes in The Hound of the Baskerville type stuff. Imagine wandering around in the Grimpen Mire of Dartmoor 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 (edited) Looks like Euro could not repeat its Thanos interpretation and bring the several into one cohesive bundle, like it did at 12z. It didn't close off as strongly as the earlier run so it was less than spectacular - 552-549 level did not close off cleanly, so it was a "late boomer". With so many vorts within the longwave, we've seen "improvement" yet no real move towards total consolidation -and without that, the column cannot cool sufficiently to overcome to the background warm state conditions we have going into it. Back before AGW type historically warm for the season, conditions, this would have been lead pipe cinch to have been at the very least, a significant winter storm if not major. We can't lament that - it is what it is - we can only deal with the reality of being in intractable warmth and it will take either a large storm or a perfectly timed one to pull off major snow. I, for one, can wait until we turn more favorable in Feb when the MJO helps turn things around. Edited January 25 by Undertakerson2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Looks to favor i84 NEPA, HV, into NE again. 0z Euro eps and control Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 25 Admin Share Posted January 25 Need that H7 to close off as quick as it can as and far south as possible. The cold has been hanging on more than models up here pretty consistently, so that might also mean drier. The ECMWF has often had a wet bias, so I'd temper its qpf a little. Looking at some soundings, it looks like the ratios may be a bit low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 6zGFS added a "wrinkle" of the AJ at just the right time to pull itself together this run - worked out "better" with no "snow hole" in PA this run Look up over New England states for the "wrinkle" of northern energy that dives into the trough - absent from 00z run . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 (edited) 2 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Need that H7 to close off as quick as it can as and far south as possible. The cold has been hanging on more than models up here pretty consistently, so that might also mean drier. The ECMWF has often had a wet bias, so I'd temper its qpf a little. Looking at some soundings, it looks like the ratios may be a bit low. 1 minute ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: 6zGFS added a "wrinkle" of the AJ at just the right time to pull itself together this run - worked out "better" with no "snow hole" in PA this run Look up over New England states for the "wrinkle" of northern energy that dives into the trough - absent from 00z run . These two posts were made for one another 🙂 Interestingly, the SHP in Canada was 5mb WEAKER this run. Edited January 25 by Undertakerson2.0 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 Grading a "C"* on the GFS right now Grasps the concepts, has room for improvement *- the comments on many of my grade school report cards. That and "gets along well with others". 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 The beast mode storm still needs every piece to get involved. Those that linger over the Lakes would make this deal go sky high That is where RTC's NAO- would have helped here, Even a true 50/50 from the storm before it - would have worked This run goes onto make the 29th storm set up as 50/50 for those trailer vorts - and look what happens as it blows up over ME only 1.5 days later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 25 Admin Share Posted January 25 15 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: 6zGFS added a "wrinkle" of the AJ at just the right time to pull itself together this run - worked out "better" with no "snow hole" in PA this run Look up over New England states for the "wrinkle" of northern energy that dives into the trough - absent from 00z run . GFS has really only latched onto the "more correct" solution within the last 48 hours. You can see how close the moisture is to phasing. I made a longer gif, but it's so random preceding it, it seemed to have little value. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregRups Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 06z NAM at 84. Nice look 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 Greens spreading out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Dang, 6z NAM makes this a snow from the start around I80.. not something I have noticed from the globals much. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 9z SREF eliminates the inland low much sooner than its previous runs, and more south than most if not all others 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 25 Admin Share Posted January 25 3 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: 9z SREF eliminates the inland low much sooner than its previous runs, and more south than most if not all others Those come out so much earlier on pivotal than other sites. Here's 3z 850 0°C spaghetti. I wonder if the answer is hiding in there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 25 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Those come out so much earlier on pivotal than other sites. Here's 3z 850 0°C spaghetti. I wonder if the answer is hiding in there. I think I see it! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 RDG Williamsport Allentown 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 25 Admin Share Posted January 25 1 hour ago, MaineJay said: Those come out so much earlier on pivotal than other sites. Here's 3z 850 0°C spaghetti. I wonder if the answer is hiding in there. 9z might be even messier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 25 Moderators Share Posted January 25 Still big differences in qpf for the areas where snow is likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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