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January 28-29, 2024 Mid-Atl/NE Winter Storm Potential


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1 hour ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

 

I moved the dates one day at each end as we drew closer, this last adjustment is to make room to discuss the follow up storm - providing anyone wants to discuss it that is. 

It's easy to be the front runner when you offer candy I suppose. 

😀😀. I’m ok with keep moving the goalposts till we find a storm. Wish GB and Buffalo’s kickers could have, or maybe being weather geeks like us and perhaps checking which direction the wind is coming from and perhaps NOT aiming for that upright, since it’s the only job they have.. 

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Such a weird set up.  Ensembles clearly showing a low passing to our south, during the coldest part of the year, with a high to the north, and the forecast is rain. 

models-2024012406-f114.sfcmslp-meanmem.conus.thumb.gif.5ea3191b3a61f0e47c1f383a611d38a0.gif

Usually my concern with a low passing W to E this far south is lack of precip in SNE, not cold air. And to be real, the Euro Ens does predict snow. 

floop-epsens-2024012406.sfcmslp-meanmem.conus.gif.1fb8f2764dc60e7799fbf59d8f7b3d7e.gif

Even the GFS Ens is showing some snow.

image.thumb.png.059c39b0c0db9d515e2e4075c7294194.png

image.png.e365b4d1687ba9cdf41567837476b84a.png

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14 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

I generally like to give each member one bittercast post a day per storm.  It's therapeutic to get it out. I'm not immune to bittercasting either. But once you start posting multiple times about how bad things are, you need to start paying someone to listen to you. Now if you want to donate $2-5 per bittercast post, I'll circle with the admins and see if we can do that.

You guys just keep doing exactly what you have been doing. This site is perfect. There was so much bittercasting on the other site i just quit doing forums, and American is just brutal with the egomaniacs and personal vendettas and attacks.

Anyway, back to weather. Local sites are now mentioning this storm- mild, and their goalposts are Sat night -Sunday. 

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5 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Ensembles clearly showing a low passing to our south, during the coldest part of the year, with a high to the north, and the forecast is rain. 

I almost posted the exact setup yesterday on sfc maps. January, with high pressure to the north and the whole system was mostly rain…. Looking at the h8 temps/winds yesterday you can just see the warm air from the pacific just get blasted into Canada over and over. 
 

It doesn’t make it any better but it hasn’t been the ugly SE ridge we’ve seen for 2 years. Just warm coastal storms/late phasers. Sooner or later it’ll break loose…what year is the question 🤣

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9 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Such a weird set up.  Ensembles clearly showing a low passing to our south, during the coldest part of the year, with a high to the north, and the forecast is rain. 

models-2024012406-f114.sfcmslp-meanmem.conus.thumb.gif.5ea3191b3a61f0e47c1f383a611d38a0.gif

Usually my concern with a low passing W to E this far south is lack of precip in SNE, not cold air. And to be real, the Euro Ens does predict snow. 

floop-epsens-2024012406.sfcmslp-meanmem.conus.gif.1fb8f2764dc60e7799fbf59d8f7b3d7e.gif

Even the GFS Ens is showing some snow.

image.thumb.png.059c39b0c0db9d515e2e4075c7294194.png

image.png.e365b4d1687ba9cdf41567837476b84a.png

Think it is the fact that the high, at least for non- New England is just not quite “there” in time, says Mr.High Hog.

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2 hours ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

Um, we changed the thread date again? I don’t even know anymore what day we are going to miss this storm. And if i don’t know what day it is, how will i know i’ve missed it? 
it’s the whole if a tree falls in a forest and know one is there to here to hear it thang. 
It’s ok, i never got that stupid freakin concept either 👀👀

It would make a sound, but not a noise.  Makes perfect sense

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1 hour ago, TLChip said:

I feel like this is the least bitter cast forums I’ve found. A lot of the mods and members try to keep that down, so I think when it starts to trend away from snow it just gets quieter. I don’t think it’s a bad thing personally. I’m curious how many snow weenies are actually skiers/winter weather people, or window watchers. 
 

The daily section for the NE/Mid-altantic does stay friendly and community like almost year round.

I'm more of a winter weather than summer person.  I'm not much of a skier, mainly because it takes forever to get off this blasted island and that can put a huge dent into your day and its a hike to go anywhere decent.  Camelback would probably be the closest.  

I mainly do and love hiking in the snow and do amateur photography.  Not many people do this here so its nice to have the trails to myself for some peace and quiet.

I would like to get into snowshoeing but we haven't had much snow to do that in the past few years.

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38 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

I generally like to give each member one bittercast post a day per storm.  It's therapeutic to get it out. I'm not immune to bittercasting either. But once you start posting multiple times about how bad things are, you need to start paying someone to listen to you. Now if you want to donate $2-5 per bittercast post, I'll circle with the admins and see if we can do that.

What if you are eating grapefruit while posting about a storm?  Would that be considered a bittercast post?  

Where do really bad jokes like the above that make you groan fall? 😁

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30 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

You guys just keep doing exactly what you have been doing. This site is perfect. There was so much bittercasting on the other site i just quit doing forums, and American is just brutal with the egomaniacs and personal vendettas and attacks.

Anyway, back to weather. Local sites are now mentioning this storm- mild, and their goalposts are Sat night -Sunday. 

OT: But I got an email last night that other site is coming back.

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12 minutes ago, clm said:

I mainly do and love hiking in the snow and do amateur photography.  Not many people do this here so its nice to have the trails to myself for some peace and quiet.

There is something about that crunch of snow under my boots and nice cold air that you don’t get any other time of the year, while snowing its even quieter! I’ve stayed out of skiing just because it’s typically much cheaper to hike 🤣. If I lived further north I’d prolly get into some back country stuff. Just not enough snow long enough down here to drop the $$ on equipment. 

@JDClapper 1033 H sitting in the Rockies with no cold air in it…. Just what the… in January! 

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38 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Such a weird set up.  Ensembles clearly showing a low passing to our south, during the coldest part of the year, with a high to the north, and the forecast is rain. 

models-2024012406-f114.sfcmslp-meanmem.conus.thumb.gif.5ea3191b3a61f0e47c1f383a611d38a0.gif

Usually my concern with a low passing W to E this far south is lack of precip in SNE, not cold air. And to be real, the Euro Ens does predict snow. 

floop-epsens-2024012406.sfcmslp-meanmem.conus.gif.1fb8f2764dc60e7799fbf59d8f7b3d7e.gif

Even the GFS Ens is showing some snow.

image.thumb.png.059c39b0c0db9d515e2e4075c7294194.png

image.png.e365b4d1687ba9cdf41567837476b84a.png

It is entirely weird... until you consider other things going on (cough cough AGW)

Fact is, January has been well above normal temps and even this past week's cold won't keep my region from having a top 10, if not 5 warmest Jans on record

30 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

You guys just keep doing exactly what you have been doing. This site is perfect. There was so much bittercasting on the other site i just quit doing forums, and American is just brutal with the egomaniacs and personal vendettas and attacks.

Anyway, back to weather. Local sites are now mentioning this storm- mild, and their goalposts are Sat night -Sunday. 

This site would only be a fraction as good as it is w/o certain members - one day you and I will make the majors too. Then everyone can critique all our "wide rights" as well. 

29 minutes ago, TLChip said:

I almost posted the exact setup yesterday on sfc maps. January, with high pressure to the north and the whole system was mostly rain…. Looking at the h8 temps/winds yesterday you can just see the warm air from the pacific just get blasted into Canada over and over. 
 

It doesn’t make it any better but it hasn’t been the ugly SE ridge we’ve seen for 2 years. Just warm coastal storms/late phasers. Sooner or later it’ll break loose…what year is the question 🤣

I am convinced we wait no more than two weeks to find out. 

17 minutes ago, Miller A said:

It would make a sound, but not a noise.  Makes perfect sense

And in the naked light I saw, 10 thousand posters maybe more...

16 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

Just, sad.

namconus_T850_eus_53.png

 

The above posts have renewed my faith and improved my otherwise dour disposition today, 

Thanks gang

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5 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

If another site comes back on line, and no one is there to witness it - does it make a sound? 

It would make a noise, which by definition is unwanted sound.  

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1 minute ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

And on that run, the high is gold.it’s all about the high. Could it be that simple?

It's a make it or break for many...yes. It'll provide a feed of cold air, but it could also suppress the storm south if the s/w isn't robust enough.

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