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January 28-29, 2024 Mid-Atl/NE Winter Storm Potential


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Intesting looking map, They are still pretty gunshy about anything in the lower valleys.

And thank you Strech for all the side by sides!

image.png

Edited by tool483
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10 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-regional-southeast-comp_radar-20_00Z-20240127_map_noBar-25-1n-10-100.thumb.gif.79b94e914f5cf75514ac8dc0e8235a8c.gif

ezgif-2-28a523c0c3.gif.74656e9986d5a7a4342938c00eb50975.gif

That is a cool line of storms just entering Alabama.  Looks like it will be heavy rain but for a very short amount of time.

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15 minutes ago, TheRex said:

That is a cool line of storms just entering Alabama.  Looks like it will be heavy rain but for a very short amount of time.

Razor thin.

 

CODNEXLAB-NEXRAD-GWX-N0B-20240127-2041-30-100.gif

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21 minutes ago, TheRex said:

That is a cool line of storms just entering Alabama.  Looks like it will be heavy rain but for a very short amount of time.

This always was supposed to be Jan thaw time, but geez hate to see this one wasted, especially with a dream Delmarva track.

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Can’t make this shit up. I don’t even know where to begin. Ok, lemme try. It’s a freakin govt agency! I recently emptied the pool cover water. Almost over the top. Never, ever did it in mid January. Sometimes don’t have to at all. Yet these complete morons still had us in a drought watch. I have a well, but if i didn’t wud luv to see one of these morons pull up yo my house and tell me to conserve water. Would have turned the hose on them till they froze yo death. And another inch plus tomorrow.

https://share.newsbreak.com/60azac70

 

Edited by RTC3-LAST CHANCE
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1 hour ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

This always was supposed to be Jan thaw time, but geez hate to see this one wasted, especially with a dream Delmarva track.

We were lucky to get a January freeze this year.  People be falling through the ice.

On this storm.  Nice little swirl in southern GA.

CODNEXLAB-NEXRAD-EOX-N0B-20240127-2245-48-50.thumb.gif.db4a5df681ee481a4145fa802d14ed84.gif

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GFS also a bit south/colder.  Watching Morristown in NJ, Oxford, CT and I think Montgomery or Middletown NYtrend-gfs-2024012718-f042.snku_acc-imp.us_ne.thumb.gif.fec3ddc661d1d389e4533d802aebd029.gif

Edited by StretchCT
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Still would watch this one from I80 north.  That area between I 80 and I 84, as well as the Merritt to I84 in CT still a toss up.  

HRRR and RAP pretty adamant about putting down some snow. This is just the beginning and even throws love to the coastline and Yonkers.  

image.thumb.png.1e77f8691196daae33c804d3a1aaa51c.png 

RAP is nuts - through 2pm

image.thumb.png.122733383b5073741faa4ec0f11b719c.png

Edited by StretchCT
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12 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

RAP got colder

trend-rap-2024012721-f040.snku_acc-imp.us_ne.gif.1aceb5bd67074f5bc6cfa81634c1e0da.gif

 

4 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Still would watch this one from I80 north.  That area between I 80 and I 84, as well as the Merritt to I84 in CT still a toss up.  

HRRR and RAP pretty adamant about putting down some snow. This is just the beginning and even throws love to the coastline and Yonkers.  

image.thumb.png.1e77f8691196daae33c804d3a1aaa51c.png 

RAP is nuts - through 2pm

image.thumb.png.122733383b5073741faa4ec0f11b719c.png

Wow that really did bring the snows south, especially E PA

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Upton put a HWO on this for some snow in the I84 corridor. 

Snow Sunday morning should accumulate from 1 to 2 inches in the
valleys and 2 to 3 inches in the higher elevations. It is possible
that a more widespread accumulation of 2 to 4 inches could occur,
mainly along the Interstate 84 corridor.

AFD also is updated with accumulating snow.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A tricky fcst across the interior as far as snowfall amts are
concerned. Think much of the interior will see a period of wet
snow mainly in the morning, but with marginal thermal profiles
and slow warming aloft snow ratios are very unlikely to be 10:1.
Most likely scenario is for a snowfall of 1-3 inches inland,
with the higher amts mostly in the higher elevations, and a
coating to an inch possible from W Passaic/W Bergen across
Rockland/N Westchester and across the coastal CT zones away from
the immediate shoreline, with little to no accumulation farther
south where precip should be primarily rain. Worst case
scenario looks to be an advy criteria snowfall of 2-4 inches,
especially for the I-84 corridor.

Mid level drying/warming arriving during Sunday afternoon and
evening should shut off the steadier/heavier precip, with any
snow changing mostly to light rain, with perhaps a transitional
pd of light freezing rain occurring in the highest elevations
of Orange and W Passaic.

As the sfc low passes E of Long Island Sunday night into Monday,
colder air wrapping around on the back side of the low should
allow any lingering precip to change back to snow or a rain/snow
mix, but with little to no subsequent accumulation.
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