Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 (edited) Here we go gang. This is one Poc has been mentioning to a small number of us in recent days - and he has discussed it the past couple of days in here (see the daily thread for more) Strongly supported by the East Asia Rule of Organic Forecasting and now showing up in LR weather modeling - most lately the 6z GFS. This storm fully occludes over New England and delivers one heck of a punch from S MidAtl up in through New England. At least two jet phase and a long duration event as one might expect from such a scenario. The 72 Hr snowfall maps paint a wide swath of winter wonderland through the region. Note that as of right now, the Euro and the GGEM do not phase either of these storms - keeping both pieces away from us (though the Canadian does try to do something with a piece of the S jet it brings up earlier in this date range that brushes above I-80 in PA with a stripe of white). The Euro did try to do something for this date range in yesterday 12z Op guidance - then lost that idea at 00z 1/20/24 and similarto CFS shunts the southern piece to Bermuda and only bringing in a far North piece of the Polar Jet (which does nothing for anyone S of Caribou ME.) As is our usual practice, we turn to Ens view for more information and here I post the Euro - which as you know, its Op run pushed the S piece away. Yet a good number of Ens members place LP at the EC off NC/VA, as the N pieces start their approach. Obviously, if those SLP are actually at the coast, the N bundle can have something to which it would have affinity (IOW something to phase with) and the result would be much different than the Op run suggests. CPC mapping of Extended Threats merely suggests a huge plume of S joo joo is available or could be I should say. CPC Analogs indicate very nice western ridge placement and structure as well as requisite trough along the EC - ample support in those areas. Thermally, it's borderline - no real entrenched cold during and we're coming out of a Jan Thaw of sorts. With that, I'll conclude this introductory offering. I'd go further and discuss aspects like MJO and Teles, etc. but I have to go and clear the 3.5" of new snow that I really didn't want - but at least Mrs UTS doesn't work on weekends and she knows how to handle a shovel as well as I do, so I won't be alone. I'll leave it up to Poc to loop some relevant EAR images (again if you want to see them before he posts them here , go to the Daily Obsx page) Many thanks to Matt for alerting us to this threat. Edited January 25 by telejunkie punctuation edits. Date adjustment (x2) 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 20 Admin Share Posted January 20 @Undertakerson2.0 I think I finally got this right. GEFS look more willing to phase. Gets the southern parcel out in front. EPS is a bit out of sync in regards to stream timing, but if the holding of SW energy back thing is still a bias, it doesn't take a lot of mental gymnastics to see potential. Getting the Hudson Bay vortex with a trof axis roughly parallel to James Bay would be close to ideal. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 20 Author Share Posted January 20 (edited) I shoulda added the GGEM Ensembles to the original post - seems a bit more supportive of some sort of EC cyclogensis awaiting a handshake from the polar jet. Edited January 20 by Undertakerson2.0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 This has EAR support 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Ya. Been keeping an eye on this one also. As bad as we can trash the longer range models, they do offer some guidance to tell us that there is something to look out for. Caution though, the signal can disappear in a snap. The key is repeated model output of something around this time frame. This storm, though you don’t always need them, does not have the support of teleconnectiions. +NAO, +AO, +PNA. something to keep an eye on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 20 Author Share Posted January 20 8 minutes ago, Rickrd said: Ya. Been keeping an eye on this one also. As bad as we can trash the longer range models, they do offer some guidance to tell us that there is something to look out for. Caution though, the signal can disappear in a snap. The key is repeated model output of something around this time frame. This storm, though you don’t always need them, does not have the support of teleconnectiions. +NAO, +AO, +PNA. something to keep an eye on. While the above is true, relative to tele's - I point out that they are transitioning into this time frame. As such, might be signaling. Particularly the PNA going favorable PRIOR to this frame. I have long said that give me a PNA+ and I'll take my chances "downstream", regardless of the other teles. I would not have started this thread though, if not for the EAR support - the transitioning teles also playing a smaller but important role. I 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 20 Author Share Posted January 20 2 minutes ago, Wtkidz said: 06Z GFS loop Not that little thing THIS one! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Not that little thing THIS one! Deleted sorry cold medicine messing with my head… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted January 20 Admin Share Posted January 20 This one caught my interest for us over in the Ohio Valley, too, and I'm glad to read it had ensemble support of other models despite not appearing at the operational/surface level. Would this be considered a beefed-up clipper? Or a clipper metamorphosing into some type of Miller? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 20 Author Share Posted January 20 5 minutes ago, Wtkidz said: Deleted sorry cold medicine messing with my head… Understandable, I had that crud back in Dec. Hated every day for those 2+ weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 20 Author Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, BuckeyeGal said: This one caught my interest for us over in the Ohio Valley, too, and I'm glad to read it had ensemble support of other models despite not appearing at the operational/surface level. Would this be considered a beefed-up clipper? Or a clipper metamorphosing into some type of Miller? The latter I would think, as modeled RN. The clipper morph is one of those "special" events. Best one I can remember was Feb 1986 - went to work with C-1" forecast, got car stuck in the 6+" we had at end of day shift. And me, having to walk the final mile in SNEAKERS. Ugh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted January 20 Admin Share Posted January 20 2 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: The latter I would think, as modeled RN. The clipper morph is one of those "special" events. Best one I can remember was Feb 1986 - went to work with C-1" forecast, got car stuck in the 6+" we had at end of day shift. And me, having to walk the final mile in SNEAKERS. Ugh. That.. doesn't sound pleasant, lol. We usually fare well with clippers.. and because of the other storm preceding this one that may drag in cooler air, I'm hopeful. Will be watching your thread and then potentially popping up one for our area, too! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 hour ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: While the above is true, relative to tele's - I point out that they are transitioning into this time frame. As such, might be signaling. Particularly the PNA going favorable PRIOR to this frame. I have long said that give me a PNA+ and I'll take my chances "downstream", regardless of the other teles. I would not have started this thread though, if not for the EAR support - the transitioning teles also playing a smaller but important role. I Was thinking this before scrolling and read the post, +PNA, imo is much more exciting than -NAO. Nearly all of the bigger storms in my books have a +PNA. NAO is often going positive or is already positive going MORE positive. 👍 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 20 Author Share Posted January 20 9 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Was thinking this before scrolling and read the post, +PNA, imo is much more exciting than -NAO. Nearly all of the bigger storms in my books have a +PNA. NAO is often going positive or is already positive going MORE positive. 👍 Ah - memories of the old "do tele's drive the atmospheric response, or merely reflect"? Yes, NAO and AO optimize, or seem to optimize any scenario. Yet, it's the PNA+ that allows digging of long waves (and drinks of shortwaves from the high pWAT values of the GOM) or, conversely (PNA-) act as levers to scoot our systems along - progressive minor events. We can use a well placed unicorn 50/50 in lieu of NAO- and with deeply bombing systems overcome meager AO signals (storm "makes" its own cold) The kind of storm discussion that separates the best from the "meh - ok" wx sites. 1 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 20 Author Share Posted January 20 (edited) This look from 6z GFS might need a Xrating for Wx P*rn GOM-illa Gorilla meets Banana High at The Benchmark Cafe Edited January 20 by Undertakerson2.0 1 1 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Acton Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Wow, that banana high setup really gets my attention. Any support with the EPO as well. This would really stymie the thaw.😎👍❄️❄️❄️❄️ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 20 Author Share Posted January 20 Last night's Happy Hour GFS went for a mostly S stream development with late interjection of polar jet I was drunk when I first saw it and thought maybe it was too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted January 20 Admin Share Posted January 20 2 hours ago, BuckeyeGal said: This one caught my interest for us over in the Ohio Valley, too, and I'm glad to read it had ensemble support of other models despite not appearing at the operational/surface level. Would this be considered a beefed-up clipper? Or a clipper metamorphosing into some type of Miller? Normally a beefed up clipper rides the same path as a clipper and then explodes off the cost of NJ/LI/the Cape. This one - as modeled - transfers it's energy (you could say it phases somewhat also) to a LP off of the NC coast and then takes the traditional route to the NNE, which would be more of a Miller. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lazman Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 4 hours ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Here we go gang. This is one Poc has been mentioning to a small number of us in recent days - and he has discussed it the past couple of days in here (see the daily thread for more) Strongly supported by the East Asia Rule of Organic Forecasting and now showing up in LR weather modeling - most lately the 6z GFS. This storm fully occludes over New England and delivers one heck of a punch from S MidAtl up in through New England. At least two jet phase and a long duration event as one might expect from such a scenario. The 72 Hr snowfall maps paint a wide swath of winter wonderland through the region. Note that as of right now, the Euro and the GGEM do not phase either of these storms - keeping both pieces away from us (though the Canadian does try to do something with a piece of the S jet it brings up earlier in this date range that brushes above I-80 in PA with a stripe of white). The Euro did try to do something for this date range in yesterday 12z Op guidance - then lost that idea at 00z 1/20/24 and similarto CFS shunts the southern piece to Bermuda and only bringing in a far North piece of the Polar Jet (which does nothing for anyone S of Caribou ME.) As is our usual practice, we turn to Ens view for more information and here I post the Euro - which as you know, its Op run pushed the S piece away. Yet a good number of Ens members place LP at the EC off NC/VA, as the N pieces start their approach. Obviously, if those SLP are actually at the coast, the N bundle can have something to which it would have affinity (IOW something to phase with) and the result would be much different than the Op run suggests. CPC mapping of Extended Threats merely suggests a huge plume of S joo joo is available or could be I should say. CPC Analogs indicate very nice western ridge placement and structure as well as requisite trough along the EC - ample support in those areas. Thermally, it's borderline - no real entrenched cold during and we're coming out of a Jan Thaw of sorts. With that, I'll conclude this introductory offering. I'd go further and discuss aspects like MJO and Teles, etc. but I have to go and clear the 3.5" of new snow that I really didn't want - but at least Mrs UTS doesn't work on weekends and she knows how to handle a shovel as well as I do, so I won't be alone. I'll leave it up to Poc to loop some relevant EAR images (again if you want to see them before he posts them here , go to the Daily Obsx page) Many thanks to Matt for alerting us to this threat. A scholarly intro. Thanks for your time. Looking forward to seeing this forum explode! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 (edited) 12z Gfs model run comparison. 06z overnightnight and 12z today. Poof! more of a phased look at 06z. 12 z today say Nadda. Edited January 20 by Rickrd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 (edited) Interesting 06z. Hinting at back to back storms into the Northeast within a 2-3 day time frame. Now if things would just line up. 8 days to go…… Edited January 20 by Rickrd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 20 Author Share Posted January 20 Yep - both GFS and CMC Op runs both shoot the STJ way out in front and shunt the whole long wave in progressive non phased form. Checking ensembles... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 20 Author Share Posted January 20 On the edge of hope - northern piece there, not so much the southern Until late 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 20 Author Share Posted January 20 More messiness - nice western ridge though, strong signal in that respect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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