Admin MaineJay Posted January 18 Admin Share Posted January 18 It's a minor event, but for the few of us in the far north of the region, we might squeeze something out of this. Is more of an overrunning/SWFE type situation. A little slug of moisture is gonna bump into a mid 1040s high pressure. GFS with more juice than the ECMWF. Another NADS type event, thought of extending three dates for a similar follow up event, but there's enough time for that one to change. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 19 Moderators Share Posted January 19 (edited) Oh good - Jay made a thread for this. Hoping this is just a front end thump then nothing! Nice position of the high. Edited January 19 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ionizer Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Not gonna give anything to NJ ...where we gonna get our next fix? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsOnLikeChakaKahn Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just make your own snow... Long time lurker, just have to pass this on... https://www.snsnowmaking.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsOnLikeChakaKahn Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ionizer Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 3 hours ago, ItsOnLikeChakaKahn said: Just make your own snow... Long time lurker, just have to pass this on... https://www.snsnowmaking.com/ is it really that easy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 06Z GFS LOOP 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 20 Moderators Share Posted January 20 Not much on the Euro GFS misses SNE, gets Boston north UKIE has some love as does the GEM ICON - misses me but gets most of us N or E of NYC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 I have much to do this week, so I'll be glad to do it in the rain or showers while NE gets more snow. Not bitter grapes here. Just an old man finding it increasingly difficult to deal with slip sliding of winter. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 20 Author Admin Share Posted January 20 2 hours ago, StretchCT said: Not much on the Euro GFS misses SNE, gets Boston north UKIE has some love as does the GEM ICON - misses me but gets most of us N or E of NYC The 1040+ high pressure with meager, but sufficient moisture could mean a ZR situation, exact location TBD, but as @MDBlueridgeoften says, know you microclimate. Could be a protracted event with several waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 20 Author Admin Share Posted January 20 Today's term is isentropic lift. https://www.weather.gov/source/zhu/ZHU_Training_Page/clouds/Isentropic_Analysis/ISENTROPIC_LIFTING.htm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 20 Moderators Share Posted January 20 5 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Today's term is isentropic lift. https://www.weather.gov/source/zhu/ZHU_Training_Page/clouds/Isentropic_Analysis/ISENTROPIC_LIFTING.htm Don't let UTS or MDBR see this, you'll know what they'll say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 20 Moderators Share Posted January 20 NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 20 Author Admin Share Posted January 20 16 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Don't let UTS or MDBR see this, you'll know what they'll say 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 18Z GFS LOOP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 21 Author Admin Share Posted January 21 Looking cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Interior icing issues gaining a little steam, imo. Nothing significant, but threat is there for I80 to just over PA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 RN, ZR, SN.. who knows!? SREF doesnt. Interior North Central PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 21 Moderators Share Posted January 21 Some of the ensembles And the ops One of those situations where a degree or two can make or break. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tool483 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 53 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Some of the ensembles And the ops One of those situations where a degree or two can make or break. Looking prettty good north of I90 all of a sudden, Will take a few inches for sure... before the switch over to rain that is 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 0z HRRR long range makes this really interesting for I-80 north .. not much ZR, mostly a sleet/snow fest. QPF not too bad either. Up to 1" of sleet potential just on the north side of I-80 in PA, if this verified. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Could be nasty for my friends up north and west. 0z NAM and RDPS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 21z SREF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 CTP: .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Models prog the aforementioned vort lobe to dampen/shear out as it tracks to the north of PA within confluent flow extending from the southern Great Lakes into the New England on Tuesday. However, favorable RRQ upper jet dynamics combined with surging moisture (PW anomalies reaching +2 sigma) driven by intensifying WAA and isentropic upglide overrunning a retreating cold sector will result in a stripe of frozen/freezing precip over the northern tier of CPA Tuesday morning into the afternoon. The expected light intensity of the precip is conducive for an ice glaze with the highest probs across the northern tier/along and north of I-80. Quick ptype transition from snow/sleet to sleet/zr is anticipated with WPC/NBM/HREF FRAM ice accretions of 0.01-0.10 inch. We anticipate a gradual transition to light rain/drizzle over northern PA Tuesday night with some lingering pockets of zr possible over the elevated terrain in the north/east zones adjacent to the Endless Mtns and Poconos where sfc temps hover near the freezing mark/32F. Rather mild Tuesday night by late January standards with lows +10 to +20F above climo. Expect low overcast with occasional light rain, drizzle/mist and area of fog as relatively warm air moves over cold, snow covered ground. We will continue to highlight the icy mix and potential travel impacts in the HWO. Consideration was given toward an advisory with this forecast cycle, but decided to wait another shift after collaborating with WFOs PBZ, BUF and BGM. Cloudy, damp and relatively mild through midweek with periods of light rain expected. Highs Wednesday reach the upper 30s to lower 40s or +5 to 10F above climo with even larger departures from normal for min temps in the 35-40F range or +15 to +25F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twinmama08 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 (edited) 8 hours ago, Rickrd said: Could be nasty for my friends up north and west. 0z NAM and RDPS What is RGEM seeing that brings freezing rain so far south? None of the others are showing anything but a whole lot of rain? Edited January 22 by twinmama08 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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