Hoosier Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 I might regret using the RAP for this lol, but just posting this to make a point. Below are 2 forecast soundings valid at 12z Tue. One is from Indianapolis, and the other is from far northwest Indiana. First up, Indianapolis: This forecast sounding has a big bulge of warm air aloft, with the warm layer peak temp at about 5C. Temps near ground are progged below freezing, so it's technically a "freezing rain" sounding, but with that much warm air aloft and such a shallow cold dome underneath, rain would normally have a hard time freezing very well on most objects/surfaces, especially anything that has some intensity. As has been discussed, the cold ground is another story, so I think even this kind of marginal sounding could allow for continued freezing rain on the ground. Now here's northwest Indiana, also valid at 12z Tue. Here we have a much less pronounced warm layer aloft, with peak warm layer temps around 2C. With this kind of sounding, it would be much easier for freezing rain to occur on all objects, including of course the cold ground. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indygirl Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 I remember several years ago we had a pretty significant ice event coming but before hand, we had a huge amount of graupel. Think that will happen tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Glad I’m off tomorrow but I don’t expect much on the roads. See how much we warm up today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indygirl Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, junior said: Glad I’m off tomorrow but I don’t expect much on the roads. See how much we warm up today. Same. I think early morning will be rough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harberr62 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Sorry for big print….From LOT: As a result of the colder temperatures, our forecast now features dramatically increased (doubled) ice amounts, ranging from around 0.05" near Rockford to 0.25 to 0.4" south of I-88, highest south of I-80. In fact, it would not be surprising to see ice amounts locally hit 0.5" in a narrow band near the Kankakee River, as hinted by RRFS/RAP/HRRR guidance. Meanwhile, closer to the Wisconsin state line where the warm nose will not be as strong (near or just above freezing), a mix of primarily sleet and snow is expected with up to 1" of accumulation. Somewhere in between (I-88 corridor?), precipitation type may remain all sleet. Our forecast snow, sleet, and ice amounts tonight may still be too conservative on a region-wide basis, but we think we`re nudging them in the right direction (up). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted January 22 Moderators Share Posted January 22 I haven't been following, but I don't think these have been posted yet. WPC and the Blend.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted January 22 Admin Share Posted January 22 1/2 the state now under a Winter Weather Advisory (i71 the dividing line, as usual lol). The HRRR and RAP continue to look like the coldest models (12z runs currently updating). I'm more worried about kiddos trying to walk to school on the sidewalks than roads, I think, especially with the temps over freezing today. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 10 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said: 1/2 the state now under a Winter Weather Advisory (i71 the dividing line, as usual lol). The HRRR and RAP continue to look like the coldest models (12z runs currently updating). I'm more worried about kiddos trying to walk to school on the sidewalks than roads, I think, especially with the temps over freezing today. Yep, walking surfaces would be a bigger issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indygirl Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 The weather alert crawler on tv says travel advisory is now until 1pm tomorrow. I think they’ve changed that from ending at 10am. Hmmm…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted January 22 Admin Share Posted January 22 NAM believes this will be something of a nothing burger save central Illinois/Missouri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUWx2 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 58 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said: NAM believes this will be something of a nothing burger save central Illinois/Missouri. I'm shocked, considering the NAM's cold bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Current radar and observations: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 For the first time since January 13, the temp is above freezing at the house. 32.3 degrees. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 hour ago, RobB said: For the first time since January 13, the temp is above freezing at the house. 32.3 degrees. Holding steady at 28 up this way with thickening clouds. Might be able to stay at/below freezing if the sun fails to peek out this afternoon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, MesoscaleBanding said: Holding steady at 28 up this way with thickening clouds. Might be able to stay at/below freezing if the sun fails to peek out this afternoon. 35.9 degrees now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mafa Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just hit 30 near CMH 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indygirl Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 hour ago, MesoscaleBanding said: Holding steady at 28 up this way with thickening clouds. Might be able to stay at/below freezing if the sun fails to peek out this afternoon. Thats what our local guy said. Cloud cover will impact ground temps and they’re watching every degree in temp change Schools all over the state are closing right now before it hits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Currently at the house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jpfalcon Posted January 22 Author Share Posted January 22 Just a tick under 31 here at the moment. Feels warmer than that outside. Perhaps it's just because of the recent arctic outbreak. Temps will probably drop a bit in most areas once precip begins due to dynamic cooling and temps hit wet bulb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mafa Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Advisories extended south in Ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOB11 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Nice little precursor to the snow expected tomorrow here today in Southern Ontario. Solid snow bands and the radar looks decent. Bit unexpected for today but I’ll take it. Already around a inch down. Kind of hard to see in the picture but it’s coming down at a good clip. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Columbusbuckeye Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 (edited) https://x.com/brianmmunoz/status/1749454885781700635?s=46&t=D_X6mEHCphu3X8HEhkyAzQ Check this video from earlier today in Missouri . 🧊⛸️ Edited January 22 by Columbusbuckeye 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted January 22 Admin Share Posted January 22 15 hours ago, Hoosier said: I might regret using the RAP for this lol, but just posting this to make a point. Below are 2 forecast soundings valid at 12z Tue. One is from Indianapolis, and the other is from far northwest Indiana. First up, Indianapolis: This forecast sounding has a big bulge of warm air aloft, with the warm layer peak temp at about 5C. Temps near ground are progged below freezing, so it's technically a "freezing rain" sounding, but with that much warm air aloft and such a shallow cold dome underneath, rain would normally have a hard time freezing very well on most objects/surfaces, especially anything that has some intensity. As has been discussed, the cold ground is another story, so I think even this kind of marginal sounding could allow for continued freezing rain on the ground. Now here's northwest Indiana, also valid at 12z Tue. Here we have a much less pronounced warm layer aloft, with peak warm layer temps around 2C. With this kind of sounding, it would be much easier for freezing rain to occur on all objects, including of course the cold ground. Great analysis and you are absolutely correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Very slippery out there. Not quite sure how tonight will shake out locally. Temps are currently right around freezing. Possible that there is a small dip with loss of daylight or when precip picks up again. The ground is going to be a disaster regardless, but just not sure the trees and powerlines will accrete as much. Kind of an odd event in more ways than one. The winds look to become very light later tonight/overnight, which I can't really recall seeing too much in a bona fide freezing rain event (not talking about freezing drizzle setups). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RadioWX Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Messing around on the INDOT website, many of the highway asphalt temps along and south of Indianapolis are currently above 40. North of the metro, still 35-36. Will be interesting to see how those drop off tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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