MesoscaleBanding Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 UK total at 10:1 I-70 screw zone in full effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 (edited) I think the potential is better there than currently modeled. BSR has a stronger storm signal. That's not a guarantee but at least has my attention. If I have the right time frame, & I'm pretty certain I do. 12z GFS is showing hints of a possible stronger system & the 12z Ensemble mean is as well. #trend Edited January 15 by Grace 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 (edited) 21 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said: UK total at 10:1 I-70 screw zone in full effect I wouldn't put much stock in UKMET right now. It kept me thinking I might get winter storm warning criteria snow yesterday. I'll be honest, the GFS has been pretty good this winter overall. Edited January 15 by Grace 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wnwniner Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 39 minutes ago, Grace said: I wouldn't put much stock in UKMET right now. It kept me thinking I might get winter storm warning criteria snow yesterday. I'll be honest, the GFS has been pretty good this winter overall. This. I recall it performed well last year in regards to general track, trends, and leading the way in determining specifics as an event neared. Feels like its done the same so far this season, as well. Not saying that the 12z is right verbatim for this threads system, just that I concur with this assessment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Wave 1 on the 12z Euro is barely a nuisance event - generally an inch or less across the OV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Euro & GFS differences at 78hr. Tells the story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Central Illinois Posted January 15 Moderators Share Posted January 15 2 hours ago, BuckeyeGal said: This would be a general win for almost all of us (remember S/E stuff has today/tomorrow added). lol at this point I'd take it going 0 for 3 the last week has sucked. I think areas up north got all 3 of the snow events 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 (edited) Euro 48 hour QPF.... Edited January 15 by RobB 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 1 to 3 perhaps 4 snows with Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 If we believe the ratios will be in the 15:1 or slightly better range...the Euro would drop a general 1-3" across the OV over a 36 hour time period. Better than anything we've had all season, but would ultimately be a big disappointment considering the almost certain 8-10 day dead/warm period to end the month of January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 At least all models are showing snows in the area. How it all comes together is to be determined. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 (edited) 8 minutes ago, RobB said: At least all models are showing snows in the area. How it all comes together is to be determined. I remain hopeful with this one, but if not, many have said early February will begin a more favorable period for us. Edited January 15 by JayPSU 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 hour ago, Grace said: I think the potential is better there than currently modeled. BSR has a stronger storm signal. That's not a guarantee but at least has my attention. If I have the right time frame, & I'm pretty certain I do. 12z GFS is showing hints of a possible stronger system & the 12z Ensemble mean is as well. #trend You have me hopeful, Grace! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted January 15 Admin Share Posted January 15 Agree that it's important that most models (except Drunk Uncle --narrowing eyes at it) show a favorable snow event for our general area. Let's hold onto that and nail down the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted January 15 Admin Share Posted January 15 ILN from earlier today. Interested to see their thoughts after the 12z runs. Think they usually update around 4p. Quote At some point on Thursday, precipitation will begin to develop in advance of another shortwave moving into the area from west to east. The initial forcing early Thursday may actually be more the result of some right entrance region jet energy, before the shortwave has more of a contribution to the forcing later Thursday into Friday. Though there are still timing and magnitude differences between models with this feature, some accumulating snow appears likely. The generally cold temperatures will probably support snow ratios well greater than 10-1 (maybe near or above 15-1) so even modest QPF amounts could produce greater than an inch of accumulation. Still too early to get into potential amounts, given the model variance, but from a pattern recognition standpoint accumulating snow appears likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted January 15 Admin Share Posted January 15 From beloved met Jym Ganahl: "We will warm Temporarily into the 20s on Wednesday and Thursday but next weekend is going to be even colder because there will be snow on the ground from Thursday Friday event. Best guess this far out is a fluffy 2-3 inches of snow. Still planning on the January Thaw next week." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted January 15 Moderators Share Posted January 15 I don’t think the latest Blend has been posted yet. All the way thru Sunday. Add and or subtract any amounts you feel necessary. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 hour ago, BuckeyeGal said: ILN from earlier today. Interested to see their thoughts after the 12z runs. Think they usually update around 4p. Afternoon update. Quote .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Cold weather pattern continues for much of the long term time period. Dry conditions will be present for the daytime hours on Wednesday. While air temperatures will be slightly warmer with high temperatures in the 20s, with wind, wind chill values will be below zero to start the day and then only be in the single digits to teens during the afternoon. As cloud cover increases Wednesday night in advance of the next system temperatures will not drop overly much with lows around 20 degrees. Snow will start to move into far northern portions of the region Wednesday night and then overspread the rest of the area on Thursday. While there are differences in the details, models continue to be in agreement on bringing accumulating snow to the area on Thursday. An additional disturbance will keep snow across the region through Friday as well and bring the potential for additional accumulating snow as well. Friday night into Saturday the snow will be more in the form of snow showers with favorable wind direction bringing some lake enhanced snow showers to the area. Cannot rule out some additional snow accumulations from this as well. By Saturday evening snow will have tapered off. Winds will start to decrease along with cloud cover. With snow cover expected to be on the ground along with the light winds and mostly clear skies, temperatures will be quick to drop Saturday night. Continue to drop temperatures from the blend by around 5 degrees, however there could be the potential for even lower temperatures. The pattern starts to change on Sunday. While temperatures will still be below normal Sunday into Sunday night it will begin a warming trend. By Monday, temperatures are expected to climb above freeing in many locations for the first time in over a week. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted January 15 Admin Share Posted January 15 Long range NAM is still north with wave 1 (leading to i70 suck zone), but does show wave 2 building. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mafa Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 ICON is north with wave 1 and pretty skimpy with wave 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted January 15 Admin Share Posted January 15 1 minute ago, mafa said: ICON is north with wave 1 and pretty skimpy with wave 2. Snoozefest, but still brings some light accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mafa Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 32 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said: Long range NAM is still north with wave 1 (leading to i70 suck zone), but does show wave 2 building. This looks like it may have been a stronger storm, sort of what Grace was talking about 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted January 15 Admin Share Posted January 15 RGEM has like.. no first wave. Almost nonexistent (but north). Much bigger deal of a second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 18z GFS wave 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 No apparent second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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