Hassaywx1223 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 hours ago, MesoscaleBanding said: Wave 2 ends up being weak & suppressed further SE. Pretty much a wave 1 event only for the OV if that solution were to verify. Im wave two but im also extreme east ohio 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeXrad Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 3 hours ago, NKYSnowLover said: properly labeled now 😉 it's bad enough my Cowboys lost to the #*&$*#^&##^*^# Packers but this shows up AGAIN on the models??? ...I'm pretty sure when the life ending asteroid hits Earth this is where it will strike ..bet 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaver56 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 (edited) 29 minutes ago, NeXrad said: it's bad enough my Cowboys lost to the #*&$*#^&##^*^# Packers but this shows up AGAIN on the models??? ...I'm pretty sure when the life ending asteroid hits Earth this is where it will strike ..bet I get the frustration about the weather. Edited January 15 by beaver56 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeXrad Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 (edited) 7 minutes ago, beaver56 said: I get the frustration about the weather. well at least it's snowing atm with the current storm which I don't think any model had this far north into the metro maybe we will get that ....inch...woo woo Edited January 15 by NeXrad 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeXrad Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 hours ago, BuckeyeGal said: I will take a 2"-4" event, even prolonged. Especially before the "thaw" coming up. I actually need a small thaw to happen I have a big two story replacement window that just came in ..had to tell my contractor...yah..we gotta wait on that I'm not having a big hole open in my house in 15 degree weather lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mafa Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Icon looks okay for the I70 corridor 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 We shall see what happens! Hoping the one topic I opened is less disappointing than the ones that came before 🙂 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow____ Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 13 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: I know it’s early but 3 models are kind of predicting the same outcome with Cincy being the barely make it zone. I would love for this to expand south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 GGEM not doing much Thursday but more on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted January 15 Admin Share Posted January 15 Yeah, it’s weird.. models are handling the impulses differently. Almost looks like something bigger wants to happen Friday on the GFS but then it transfers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 I'll be in here starting tomorrow, the weak nature of the energies have concerned me similar to today/tomorrow's so I've tried to not invest a whole lot but because of ratios once again there's potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 It also looks like this was already going to bring a slightly colder airmass than the first for 1-2 nights, any snow would now surely do that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeXrad Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 54 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: that's just some ridiculousness right there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted January 15 Admin Share Posted January 15 10 hours ago, BuckeyeGal said: Yeah, it’s weird.. models are handling the impulses differently. Almost looks like something bigger wants to happen Friday on the GFS but then it transfers. Give it time. Let today's storm get out of the way first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted January 15 Admin Share Posted January 15 Very difficult to capture this time period since we have more than 24 hours (on some models) of snow. Did a total to try and grab it, but notice that most of the snows to S/E are for the current/incoming storm. For the i70 corridor, it's currently looking like a potential 4"-5" event (all thanks to ratios). I also added the newest model blend. It says it uses a model ratio, but I have no idea what that ratio is lol. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulaman984 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 (edited) 1 hour ago, BuckeyeGal said: Very difficult to capture this time period since we have more than 24 hours (on some models) of snow. Did a total to try and grab it, but notice that most of the snows to S/E are for the current/incoming storm. For the i70 corridor, it's currently looking like a potential 4"-5" event (all thanks to ratios). I also added the newest model blend. It says it uses a model ratio, but I have no idea what that ratio is lol. Per ILN (Sunday AM) : The generally cold temperatures will probably support snow ratios well greater than 10-1 (maybe near or above 15-1) Edited January 15 by Mulaman984 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted January 15 Moderators Share Posted January 15 1 hour ago, BuckeyeGal said: I also added the newest model blend. It says it uses a model ratio, but I have no idea what that ratio is lol. From the Pivotal site... In addition, the NWS National Blend of Models applies relatively sophisticated SLRs to each input model’s QPF. Although NWS NBM precipitation forecasts are essentially post-processed ensemble means, and therefore may tend toward smoothing out maxima in forecasts beyond the first 12-24 hours, the NBM’s SLR approach is more advanced than any individual NWP model on Pivotal Weather. FYI: NWP = Numerical Weather Prediction; SLR = Snow to Liquid Ratio 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted January 15 Moderators Share Posted January 15 From CLE. Most can ignore the bit of LES talk, but more importantly mention of the amount of moisture associated with the Clipper. There is plenty of uncertainty regarding the interaction between the clipper and the polar vortex...a more amplified clipper, as the Canadian and European models depict could produce a general/widespread plowable snow. This clipper will originate fairly far south over the Pacific so it will have potential to pull in a bit of moisture, contributing to potential for both synoptic snow and lake effect behind it. The GFS model is slightly more aggressive in pushing the polar vortex south, which would suppress the clipper and leave us with more of a general scattered snow shower situation as the Arctic air flows in followed by lake effect in the snowbelt. The GFS solution would still provide for cold weather and at least a bit of snow for the area, but would confine any more notable accumulations to the snowbelt. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted January 15 Moderators Share Posted January 15 The overnight (1/15 AM) Extended Forecast Discussion from the WPC, in part: ..Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Latest models/means continue to agree well for the large scale evolution through the period with more progressive flow than has been seen recently, as the upper ridge axis pushes the main trough through the East and an upstream trough comes into the West through the period. Details of the flow show some differences that are certainly within reason for the medium range timeframe, but have sensible weather impacts. One of these more variable systems is a shortwave consolidating in the east-central U.S. by Friday as energies from the northwest and north combine within the broad trough. This strong shortwave should pivot through the base of the trough and help produce western Atlantic low pressure on Friday, while additional low pressure/frontal systems may be farther west, making for a complex surface pattern before these features may combine. The surface low track Friday-Saturday has some east-west spread and also some north-south spread indicating timing differences. More specifically, CMC runs have been on the eastern side of the spread compared to consensus--but the new 00Z ECMWF has a similar eastern track farther from shore. These low track variations lead to meaningful differences as far as East Coast effects. The WPC forecast was based on a multi-model deterministic blend early in the forecast period. Gradually incorporated the GEFS and EC ensemble mean guidance while phasing out the CMC (and of course the time-limited UKMET) as the period progressed, ending up with an even blend of the 18Z GFS and GEFS mean and 12Z ECMWF and EC mean by Day 7. This smoothed out model differences but maintained some strength individual systems. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted January 15 Admin Share Posted January 15 Tail-end of long-range NAM. Seems North with the initial band as compared to other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Wave 1 on the ICON = no love for the I-70 corridor 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted January 15 Admin Share Posted January 15 Just now, MesoscaleBanding said: Wave 1 on the ICON = no love for the I-70 corridor Apparently the ICON agrees with the NAM. *Cue eye roll* The RGEM has a much-lighter first wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 With how things have gone, I'm fully expecting wave 1 to be too far north & wave 2 to be super weak or suppressed to the south 😂🙄 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted January 15 Admin Share Posted January 15 Just now, MesoscaleBanding said: With how things have gone, I'm fully expecting wave 1 to be too far north & wave 2 to be super weak or suppressed to the south 😂🙄 This would be my fear, too. For now, even the ICON, with its I-70 suck zone, gives us a couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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