Snow____ Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 4 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said: Flakes flying soon in Cincy?... I’m about to get off work in a few minutes. I’ll let you guys know if it starts snowing soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted January 19 Admin Share Posted January 19 Love how the radar is starting to light up. Go go go! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 All I know is the 22z hrrr, I dont know what other models you guys speak of 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted January 19 Moderators Share Posted January 19 I haven't looked at the models or this thread all day, but here goes the last SREF update for this storm. Some of my thoughts while doing these, FWIW: The snow is getting underway in western areas. SREFs marked with an * already had some snow that has fallen, thus the reduction. Thus these numbers are "snow to come". Interestingly, these amounts are quite a bit less than the NWS predictions, especially in the LES areas. I could have saved myself a lot of time and just put down 2-3" for everyone south of I-80, . I'll probably do a "post mortem" to see how the SREFs did after the storm is over, at least for some locations. Gotta run again, might be back later. 15Z & 21Z SREF update.(includes, 3Z, 9Z, 15Z, 21Z) Indy – 1.0/1.5/1.6/1.9 Valparaiso IN – 6.2/6.5/5.6/4.4 Detroit – 4.1/3.9/1.7/1.4 * Flint – 3.5/3.2/1.6/1.5 * Toledo – 3.8/3.7/2.1/2.1 * Findlay – 3.3/3.8/2.7/2.5 Cleveland – 4.6/4.9/3.5/3.8 Youngstown Arpt. – 4.2/4.0/2.9/2.9 Akron/Canton – 4.2/4.0/2.8/2.9 Marion – 3.3/3.8/3.0/2.8 Mt. Vernon/ NW Newark – 2.9/3.4/2.8/2.7 Z-ville – 2.6/3.0/2.5/2.6 Columbus – 2.4/2.7/2.6/2.5 Dover/New Philly – 2.8/3.3/2.5/2.8 Dayton (N) - 1.9/2.6/2.4/2.5 Dayton (S)- 1.9/2.2/2.2/2.4 Hamilton (N.Cincy) - 1.6/1.7/1.8/2.1 Coving. (S Cincy)- 1.4/1.4/1.6/1.9 Sidney OH – 2.6/3.4/3.4/2.9 Pittsburgh – 2.9/3.4/2.4/2.6 Elkins – 8.0/8.7/7.7/8.7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 These models truly are worthless sacks of crap... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 All I can figure is that these recent model runs are picking up on a quicker transfer that robs us of moisture? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 19 Author Share Posted January 19 Models have been bouncing around with precip amounts but they have been consistent with painting me with a 1 to 3 inch snow fall which is in the range ILN has discussed in my region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Most areas struggle to reach 2" by late afternoon on that NAM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Daybreak totals cut in half on the 3km as well. Hard to rationalize as coincidence - models must be seeing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cperry29 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 (edited) FV3 isn’t too bad. I figure none of them will be able to pinpoint 2” vs 3-4”. Edited January 19 by cperry29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 19 Author Share Posted January 19 I definitely understand why official forecasters give a range in snow totals..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Pivotal is assuming 14/15:1 ratios on that NAM run. If 20:1 ratios occur, as ILN has talked about, might be able to bump totals up a bit. Ugh, just hate seeing last minute disgusting trends like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 The dryslot is there where there was concern but its rapidly filling in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, Ohiobuckeye45 said: The dryslot is there where there was concern but its rapidly filling in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted January 19 Admin Share Posted January 19 Not honestly putting a bunch of stock in models at this point. I’m watching radar. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mafa Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Remember models are guidance. We are in wait and see mode now. HRRR can change drastically between runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, mafa said: Remember models are guidance. We are in wait and see mode now. HRRR can change drastically between runs. Agree, but it's not just the HRRR...happened on the RAP, NAM, 3KM, ARW as well. Let's hope it's just a blip. If I had to put money on a model, I'd stick with a GFS/EURO blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mafa Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 4 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: That is encouraging and would dispell some of those models that were showing the gap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 19 Author Share Posted January 19 No OBS yet so assuming this is virga yet one needs this to moisten the atmosphere... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Columbusbuckeye Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 6 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said: Not honestly putting a bunch of stock in models at this point. I’m watching radar. Same. Now we just watch to see where the heavier bands set up, ect. Let the cards fall where they may. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 19 Author Share Posted January 19 My forecast is a range of about 1.75 inches to 2.75 inches of snow. Pretty much what the SREFS has painted me for a while. ILN makes mention of 1 to 3 with maybe a lollipop of 4 in the my region. We shall see how it all works out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 I see ILN just updated the WWA from 3-5" down to 2-4" for their northern counties 😴 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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