January 18-20, 2024 | Ohio Valley Snow event

[Hiramite]

2" and 4" 48 hr Probabilities:

[NWOhioChaser]

2 minutes ago, Jpfalcon said:

15 minutes south in Toledo and there's too much dry air for it to even snow. Wild stuff. 

Yeah it’s nuts. I’m about 20 miles west of Toledo and it’s just started to lightly snow. 

[BuckeyeGal]

I will remember this, NAM.

[BuckeyeGal]

ILN:

Quote

Key message for the short term period is that accumulating snow
will bring the potential for slick road conditions to the
region.

Issued or continued a winter weather advisory for areas with
highest confidence on advisory level snow. Issued a special
weather statement for the remaining areas. Cannot rule out that
an advisory will be needed for the remainder of the area with
subtle shifts in storm track, greater snow ratios, or based off
of impact. Tricky snowfall forecast for the short term with
tight gradients in snowfall expected.

While one area of low pressure will move south of the region, a
secondary surface low is expected to move near the Interstate 71
corridor this evening into tonight. The exact position of that
low will have implications for snowfall values.

There will be moisture brought up into southeastern portions of
the region this evening and also a corridor of snow northwest
of the low across northern portions of the region. In-between
the two areas expect lower snowfall values.

The surface low will start to push off to the east late tonight
into Friday morning. An upper level disturbance will start to
move through and there will be favorable winds off of the lake.
This disturbance along with supportive wind direction will allow
for snow shower activity to continue for the remainder of the
short term across the region with some higher enhanced snowfall
values across northern portions of the forecast area.

Totals across far northern portions of the region will have the
potential for 3 to 5 inches with locally higher amounts. Have a
corridor of 2 to 4 inches in an advisory as well and then
another area of 1 to 3 inches. Kept locations with 1 to 2 and
locally higher amounts out of the advisory at this time due to
lower confidence in snowfall values in these areas closer to the
low, however as mentioned previously cannot rule out that the
winter weather advisory might need to be extended with time if
nothing else based on impact alone.

Temperatures will fall Friday afternoon as cooler air works into
the region. Wind chill values by the of the daytime hours on
Friday will be down into the single digits. Wind gusts on Friday
will be in the 20 to 30 mph range.

 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

6z euro 10:1

Edited January 18 by Ohiobuckeye45

[BuckeyeGal]

11 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

6z euro 10:1

[Hiramite]

3z and 9z SREF Tracker

Generally most places, especially central and southern OH, have decent increases (percentage-wise) since the 21z run.

I've added Elkins WV for @FortySixAnd32 and @Blitz.   Safe travels!

If you ever wondered why my number my bit a bit off from what you get, I round down.  That way you'll be pleasantly surprised by the extra 0.1".

I have a 95% probability I won't be here for the 15z SREF but I plan do both the 15 & 21z later this evening.

 

SREF Plume Tracker®, the mean snow amount of numerous weather models. SREF is the Short Range Ensemble Forecast. They do not include the global models. However the NAM is related to the WRF members.  Great way to not only see the trends near you, but also what areas are being favored by the models. Sometimes they work out fairly well, other times not so well. They are updated every 6 hours but on a ~4-5 hr delay.

The plots can be found here. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/?SID=CLE   This link is for Cleveland, click on the blue dot nearest to where you live. The tighter the grouping of the individual members, the more confidence in the forecast. (Want your town added below??...just let me know.)

9Z SREF update.(includes 15Z, 21Z, 3Z, 9Z)     

Indy – 1.3/1.1/1.0/1.5   Valparaiso IN – 5.9/6.7/6.2/6.5   

Detroit – 3.4/4.4/4.1/3.9     Flint – 3.3/3.7/3.5/3.2

Toledo – 2.8/3.3/3.8/3.7   Findlay – 3.3/3.1/3.3/3.8

Cleveland – 4.1/4.7/4.6/4.9     Youngstown Arpt. – 3.7/4.0/4.2/4.0

Akron/Canton – 3.1/2.8/4.2/4.0   Marion – 3.2/2.8/3.3/3.8 

Mt. Vernon/ NW Newark – 2.6/2.5/2.9/3.4    Z-ville – 2.1/2.2/2.6/3.0

Columbus – 2.0/2.1/2.4/2.7   Dover/New Philly – 2.6/2.5/2.8/3.3

Dayton(N)- 1.7/1.6/1.9/2.6     Dayton(S)- 1.5/1.4/1.9/2.2

Hamilton (N.Cincy)- 1.1/1.0/1.6/1.7   Coving. (S Cincy)- 0.8/0.8/1.4/1.4 

Sidney OH – 2.5/2.4/2.6/3.4         Pittsburgh – 2.7/2.4/2.9/3.4

Elkins – x/8.0/8.0/8.7

[RobB]

Just now, Hiramite said:

3z and 9z SREF Tracker

Generally most places, especially central and southern OH, have decent increases (percentage-wise) since the 21z run.

I've added Elkins WV for @FortySixAnd32 and @Blitz.   Safe travels!

If you ever wondered why my number my bit a bit off from what you get, I round down.  That way you'll be pleasantly surprised by the extra 0.1".

I have a 95% probability I won't be here for the 15z SREF but I plan do both the 15 & 21z later this evening.

 

SREF Plume Tracker®, the mean snow amount of numerous weather models. SREF is the Short Range Ensemble Forecast. They do not include the global models. However the NAM is related to the WRF members.  Great way to not only see the trends near you, but also what areas are being favored by the models. Sometimes they work out fairly well, other times not so well. They are updated every 6 hours but on a ~4-5 hr delay.

 

The plots can be found here. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/?SID=CLE   This link is for Cleveland, click on the blue dot nearest to where you live. The tighter the grouping of the individual members, the more confidence in the forecast. (Want your town added below??...just let me know.)

 

9Z SREF update.(includes 15Z, 21Z, 3Z, 9Z)     

 

Indy – 1.3/1.1/1.0/1.5   Valparaiso IN – 5.9/6.7/6.2/6.5   

 

Detroit – 3.4/4.4/4.1/3.9     Flint – 3.3/3.7/3.5/3.2

 

Toledo – 2.8/3.3/3.8/3.7   Findlay – 3.3/3.1/3.3/3.8

 

Cleveland – 4.1/4.7/4.6/4.9     Youngstown Arpt. – 3.7/4.0/4.2/4.0

 

Akron/Canton – 3.1/2.8/4.2/4.0   Marion – 3.2/2.8/3.3/3.8 

 

Mt. Vernon/ NW Newark – 2.6/2.5/2.9/3.4    Z-ville – 2.1/2.2/2.6/3.0

 

Columbus – 2.0/2.1/2.4/2.7   Dover/New Philly – 2.6/2.5/2.8/3.3

 

Dayton(N)- 1.7/1.6/1.9/2.6     Dayton(S)- 1.5/1.4/1.9/2.2

 

Hamilton (N.Cincy)- 1.1/1.0/1.6/1.7   Coving. (S Cincy)- 0.8/0.8/1.4/1.4 

 

Sidney OH – 2.5/2.4/2.6/3.4         Pittsburgh – 2.7/2.4/2.9/3.4

 

Elkins – x/8.0/8.0/8.7

 

Thanks as usual.  When I saw that you were typing for a period of time, I ASSumed this was gonna be your post 😜

[Ohiobuckeye45]

Something to watch, the HRRR has continually pushed snow out of the area SEVERAL hours before other models

[cperry29]

2 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said:

I like these widespread events that get most people in the game. Hopefully it plays out that way. 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

[Mulaman984]

3 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Nearly all runs overnight/this AM have WWA level snow, wonder why ILN is waiting on adding those to the SW counties. 

Edited January 18 by Mulaman984

[junior]

1 minute ago, Mulaman984 said:

Nearly all runs overnight/this AM have WWA level snow, wonder why ILN is waiting on adding those to the SW counties. 

Looks like they’re still stuck with yesterday’s runs. I think 1-3” still warrants an advisory especially if the bulk comes overnight. 

[RobB]

Just now, junior said:

Looks like they’re still stuck with yesterday’s runs. I think 1-3” still warrants an advisory especially if the bulk comes overnight. 

In their discussion, they made mention of this in the southwest counties that their would probably be an advisory even if amounts just miss advisory levels just for the effects of the snow.

[Hiramite]

 

2 minutes ago, Mulaman984 said:

Nearly all runs overnight/this AM have WWA level snow, wonder why ILN isn waiting on adding those to the SW counties. 

 

Just now, junior said:

Looks like they’re still stuck with yesterday’s runs. I think 1-3” still warrants an advisory especially if the bulk comes overnight. 

 

Just an uneducated guess on my part, and it may be related to @junior comment. I think they lean heavily on the Blend, so either it hasn't caught up (incorporated) last nights runs yet or the models it uses doesn't agree with the ones showing higher totals to the south.

[adurb44]

52 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

Late start today...awaiting 09z SREF.

A couple of maps.

Thanks for incorporating these for a range of areas. I like these NWS maps.

[bigben89]

18 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

 

These people are going to get hammered... lol. Some say they're "in the right spot."

[beaver56]

17 minutes ago, bigben89 said:

These people are going to get hammered... lol. Some say they're "in the right spot."

 

I am getting so desperate for a real snow storm I may take my ass out there and wait for it.  On my way now.

[Ohiobuckeye45]

the NAM is overall lower on amounts than the dazzling 6z but fills in a little more on the southern edges

 

 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

in fact looking closer back in to the MW, a quite sizeable shift south

[Wxwatchman]

I'm pulling for this snow since it was my birthday this week lol. Can a brotha get some decent snow down here in southern ohio 😆

[Snow____]

1 hour ago, BuckeyeGal said:

I will remember this, NAM.

It’s so weird but that little notch at Cincy has appeared on a several models. If it works out like that I’d be in my feels lol. 
Icon shows it too.

[OSUWx2]

Both NAMs are picking up on a "trailing" band sliding N -> S through Central Ohio tomorrow evening. That could be fun...

[Mulaman984]

Just now, Snow____ said:

It’s so weird but that little notch at Cincy has appeared on a several models. If it works out like that I’d be in my feels lol. 
Icon shows it too.

See OB’s post above for 12Z (and nearly all now)

[Ohiobuckeye45]

1 minute ago, OSUWx2 said:

Both NAMs are picking up on a "trailing" band sliding N -> S through Central Ohio tomorrow evening. That could be fun...

I started to notice that last night, several have it. Almost like the grand finale, I've been trying to make sure all the total maps have that included