OxfordOh_ Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 8 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said: HRRR trend Looks to be trending better for us south of I-70 folks! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 No comment 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 All you can do is laugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaf316 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 9 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said: All you can do is laugh Or cry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 12 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said: All you can do is laugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Some early signs that the NAM may improve a bit compared to its earlier run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 This crap continues to show up...just need a little better timing so that these pieces can interact sooner...otherwise, there will be a very disappointing screw zone somewhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 (edited) Cincy/Dayton/Columbus dome activated...🙄 Edited January 17 by MesoscaleBanding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 (edited) 11 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said: Some early signs that the NAM may improve a bit compared to its earlier run But in the end, this run somehow managed to be worse than 12z 😂🤡 Edited January 17 by MesoscaleBanding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted January 17 Admin Share Posted January 17 Lighter than Monday night's event for here on the 18z NAM. You can't even make this stuff up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 With this run, it gives me a half an inch. Nice!! 😜 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CleLakeEffect Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 I'm pulling for you all down state. Past few years have been brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, BuckeyeGal said: Lighter than Monday night's event for here on the 18z NAM. You can't even make this stuff up. Can't discount the NAM considering the overall trend today.... But for sanity sake, I'm reminding myself that the NAM has shown the capability of being the most unreliable, clown-ish model of them all in many past instances. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Oh my... The 3km leaves a few spots with absolutely nothing - you have got to be kidding me, right? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 (edited) ILN AFD: Best chance for accumulating snowfall will begin to occur Thursday night. There are two primary waves to monitor - a southern wave will first impact our northern KY counties and perhaps our lower Scioto Valley counties primarily. This will lead to some light snow accumulations in the early overnight hours Thursday, but the bulk of this wave appears to impact locations south and east of our CWA. Have lowered snow amounts from this particular wave given trends. The second wave (and most impactful) will be from the primary shortwave trough that pivots through the Midwest region. This will lead to the best chance for accumulating snowfall across our entire CWA, with better forcing and thus higher totals expected for locations along/north of I-70. Given higher snow ratios of around 16:1 to 18:1 overnight, along with sub-freezing pavement temps, snowfall will be able to easily accumulate once we start getting decent rates. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... There`s quite a bit to unpack through the course of the long term period, with snow followed by cold followed by a warmup -- all in the course of just a few days. Light snow will likely be ongoing for most, if not all, of the ILN FA at daybreak Friday, with the steadiest/heaviest activity focusing north of the OH Rvr. This activity, associated with the S/W pivoting to the ESE through the region, will spread through the ILN FA during the morning hours, eventually decreasing in coverage and becoming more showery in nature from W to E as we progress into the afternoon. LL lapse rates will steepen through the day Friday as deep-layer CAA evolves, with SCT to numerous snow showers during the afternoon following the morning steady/light snow. This being said, moisture availability/quality in the DGZ will become increasingly meager later into the daytime as drier air filters in from the NW. This should lead to an overall downtick in snow shower coverage and intensity by early evening, even as a few flurries continue through the overnight (especially within a fetch of better/deeper moisture to the SE off Lake Michigan into WC OH). The overall thinking for total snow remains largely unchanged, but a few tweaks were made to lower snow totals in N KY and SE IN (to around 1"), while forecasts of snow totals were increased subtly from WC to central OH (to around 3") given latest ensemble dataset trends. Certainly, given the anomalously-high SLRs on the order of 15-20:1, an isolated 4" cannot be completely ruled out, especially where repeated banding occurs throughout the course of the event. But do think that most spots end up in the 2"-3" range, with slightly less near/S of the OH Rvr and slightly more favored near/N of I-70. The bulk of the accumulating snow locally should be diminishing by/around noontime, with the main story through the remainder of the day being the /very/ cold air filtering back in from the W. Sfc temps will be slowly falling through the day in SE IN, with CAA allowing for temps to dip into the upper teens by mid afternoon near/W of I-75. By early evening, temps will be falling area-wide into the teens, eventually bottoming out around 5 degrees near/W of I-75 to around 10 degrees from central OH through NE KY by daybreak Saturday. This, combined with steady light NW sfc flow on the order of 10-15kts, should lead to wind chill values below zero just about everywhere, with the best chance for wind chill values near or less than 10 degrees below zero to coincide with the coldest temps from WC OH through the Tri-State. Edited January 17 by RobB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, RobB said: ILN AFD: Best chance for accumulating snowfall will begin to occur Thursday night. There are two primary waves to monitor - a southern wave will first impact our northern KY counties and perhaps our lower Scioto Valley counties primarily. This will lead to some light snow accumulations in the early overnight hours Thursday, but the bulk of this wave appears to impact locations south and east of our CWA. Have lowered snow amounts from this particular wave given trends. The second wave (and most impactful) will be from the primary shortwave trough that pivots through the Midwest region. This will lead to the best chance for accumulating snowfall across our entire CWA, with better forcing and thus higher totals expected for locations along/north of I-70. Given higher snow ratios of around 16:1 to 18:1 overnight, along with sub-freezing pavement temps, snowfall will be able to easily accumulate once we start getting decent rates. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... There`s quite a bit to unpack through the course of the long term period, with snow followed by cold followed by a warmup -- all in the course of just a few days. Light snow will likely be ongoing for most, if not all, of the ILN FA at daybreak Friday, with the steadiest/heaviest activity focusing north of the OH Rvr. This activity, associated with the S/W pivoting to the ESE through the region, will spread through the ILN FA during the morning hours, eventually decreasing in coverage and becoming more showery in nature from W to E as we progress into the afternoon. LL lapse rates will steepen through the day Friday as deep-layer CAA evolves, with SCT to numerous snow showers during the afternoon following the morning steady/light snow. This being said, moisture availability/quality in the DGZ will become increasingly meager later into the daytime as drier air filters in from the NW. This should lead to an overall downtick in snow shower coverage and intensity by early evening, even as a few flurries continue through the overnight (especially within a fetch of better/deeper moisture to the SE off Lake Michigan into WC OH). The overall thinking for total snow remains largely unchanged, but a few tweaks were made to lower snow totals in N KY and SE IN (to around 1"), while forecasts of snow totals were increased subtly from WC to central OH (to around 3") given latest ensemble dataset trends. Certainly, given the anomalously-high SLRs on the order of 15-20:1, an isolated 4" cannot be completely ruled out, especially where repeated banding occurs throughout the course of the event. But do think that most spots end up in the 2"-3" range, with slightly less near/S of the OH Rvr and slightly more favored near/N of I-70. The bulk of the accumulating snow locally should be diminishing by/around noontime, with the main story through the remainder of the day being the /very/ cold air filtering back in from the W. Sfc temps will be slowly falling through the day in SE IN, with CAA allowing for temps to dip into the upper teens by mid afternoon near/W of I-75. By early evening, temps will be falling area-wide into the teens, eventually bottoming out around 5 degrees near/W of I-75 to around 10 degrees from central OH through NE KY by daybreak Saturday. This, combined with steady light NW sfc flow on the order of 10-15kts, should lead to wind chill values below zero just about everywhere, with the best chance for wind chill values near or less than 10 degrees below zero to coincide with the coldest temps from WC OH through the Tri-State. That's encouraging after seeing that nightmare start to the 18z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted January 17 Admin Share Posted January 17 5 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said: That's encouraging after seeing that nightmare start to the 18z Those people know a crap ton more than me about the weather. I'm just going to believe them. *breathes in a paper bag* 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crowbar Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Marshall McPeak was just on the radio - he made it seem like only a few rural school districts in SE Ohio will call off on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 18z ICON puts down 3-4" statewide in OH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wnwniner Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 all this back and forth is exhausting 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, MesoscaleBanding said: 18z ICON puts down 3-4" statewide in OH Better phasing compared to 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 RGEM also a general 3-4" across OH...slightly less in far SW OH & slightly more in far N OH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 I would laugh but wouldn't be surprised one bit if this turned into <1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Virus047 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 hour ago, Jaf316 said: Or cry Or Both.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, junior said: I would laugh but wouldn't be surprised one bit if this turned into <1" Certainly has that potential if the NAM scenario plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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