Admin BuckeyeGal Posted January 17 Admin Share Posted January 17 NAM also shows snows through Friday night.. with another inch or so not shown in the already-posted graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 FV3 is alittle better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, cperry29 said: You’ll drive yourself crazy watching the NAM flip flop every 6 hours lol. My 0.02 is, give it til 12z tomorrow. I remember hearing Bernie Rayno mention he looks at the NAM in the 24hr range. That seems like sound advice. True - hard to ignore trends though, especially when the 3km is in good agreement. There are several storms in memory where the NAM completely botched snow amounts/placement within 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cperry29 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, MesoscaleBanding said: True - hard to ignore trends though, especially when the 3km is in good agreement. There are several storms in memory where the NAM completely botched snow amounts/placement within 12 hours. Indeed it’s a crap shoot. It’s like placing bets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mafa Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Unfortunately the transfer is happening a bit sooner in these model runs. This robs some of the moisture. Models that are showing more snow are holding on a bit longer before the weak transfer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 the HI RES NSSL is also coming in north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 as is the ARW slightly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wnwniner Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 do not like the trend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Something happened to cause this shift. Did we get some sampling this morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 RGEM may be nudging north as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 We've lost the RGEM as well. Generally 2" along I-70 I-80 & north are the winners Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said: We've lost the RGEM as well. Generally 2" along I-70 I-80 & north are the winners 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 couple more high res models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 I-70 gets to 2.5-3", but that is only achieved by scattered backside snow showers- and we all know how reliable those are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 (edited) ICON trend, coming in with the RGEM also Edited January 17 by Ohiobuckeye45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Geesh- when was the last time a respectable system actually trended favorably around here?! Ridiculous 🤡 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wnwniner Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 am i allowed to say this is heartbreaking? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 (edited) 1 minute ago, Wnwniner said: am i allowed to say this is heartbreaking? not yet 😄 still a ways to go and while we've lost amounts we havent lost it all yet Edited January 17 by Ohiobuckeye45 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulaman984 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 So the globals trend south (6z ecm looked south?) and the short rangers trend north? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 (edited) I guess with all that said, I'm going to put focus back in to the ECM which was never in favor of the robust amounts along i70. Here is the 6z kuchera map for the ECM Edited January 17 by Ohiobuckeye45 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted January 17 Admin Share Posted January 17 I don't think this is locked in at all. Obviously don't like the trends today, but it's still got some time to wobble. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cperry29 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Less QPF everywhere 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, BuckeyeGal said: I don't think this is locked in at all. Obviously don't like the trends today, but it's still got some time to wobble. True, but just about all guidance has lost the idea of a widespread juicy solution. Still time to improve though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wnwniner Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 8 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said: True, but just about all guidance has lost the idea of a widespread juicy solution. Still time to improve though agreed-hopefully this is the bottom and overdoing the adjustments, and they come back a little bit and meet in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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