Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: It must be wildy hit or miss this year then. It was absolutely embarrassing a few days ago here. All models showed a half inch or less and it was steadfast on a giant area of 1-3" from IL, IN, OH, no one even got an inch, talking a multi state area. Seems like every model fails miserably from time to time Indeed they all do fail. It's kind of odd that it let you down so much. It's not only this forum that the EC crowd has noticed how well it handles systems. I've seen it being praised on 3 other weather sites I frequent. This, to me, is wild because, generally, I despise all CMC product - so I'm stunned it's performed so well. Maybe it's because NAM is absolute JUNK and Baby-G shines by comparison. (though NAM was the first to nail Jonas in Jan 2016 when no other model believed it) . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted January 17 Moderators Share Posted January 17 CLE with some model discussion this AM: We are seeing better agreement that the clipper diving out of the northern Plains will interact with a small shortwave in the sub- tropical jet stream over the Ohio Valley Thursday night into Friday. This interaction increases confidence in a widespread light to moderate snow across our entire forecast area. There is still some disagreement among guidance regarding how much the incoming clipper interacts/phases with the shortwave over the Ohio Valley...models phase more, such as the NAM and Canadian, develop a surface low over West Virginia Friday morning and close off a mid-level low. This would lead to stronger lift capable of supporting period of banded snow and higher snow rates Friday morning and widespread moderate snow totals. The European model has a bit less interaction, leading to an open surface trough with somewhat lighter snow amounts. The general trend among the operational models and ensembles has been for more interaction between the two systems so this forecast increased QPF and resultant snow a bit more across the entire area. This still has room to trend a bit more in either direction. One thing that`s agreed upon is that the dendritic growth zone will become quite deep Thursday night into Friday morning, possibly 150- 200mb deep for a time. Guidance suggests lift will intersect this favorable snow growth at times through midday Friday supporting a fluffy, high-ratio snow. The European and GFS ensembles both suggest high to very-high confidence in QPF greater than 0.10" area-wide with the synoptic snow, leading to high confidence in at least a couple inches of snow for everyone given the snow ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted January 17 Moderators Share Posted January 17 WPC 2" & 4" 48hr Probabilities: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted January 17 Moderators Share Posted January 17 I clicked on about a half dozen 03z SREF plumes across OH and IN just now, just about all of them are showing increases since the last cycle. I'll be back late this afternoon or tonight with the first installment of the SREF Tracker. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted January 17 Moderators Share Posted January 17 This is getting snowier and snowier every time I check. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted January 17 Moderators Share Posted January 17 Last one for the morning, 07z NWS Blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 6z ecm 10:1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 9Z run of SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 SREF Plumes snowfall mean of 2.5 inches IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 (edited) Looking like 2" is a lock, 3" is likely, 4" possible for central OH - especially north of I-70 Just wish their was more of a ceiling to hope for though. So weak & fast-moving with very little available moisture. Would love to see today's model runs bring back a little juice to this thing. Edited January 17 by MesoscaleBanding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 12z HRRR paints the 6" bullseye on northern IL/IN, NW OH & S MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cperry29 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 RRFS from 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaf316 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 minutes ago, cperry29 said: RRFS from 06z What's the RRFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adurb44 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, Jaf316 said: What's the RRFS? It's the model you go to when the weather has you Really Really Frickin' Sad 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 9 minutes ago, Jaf316 said: What's the RRFS? https://gsl.noaa.gov/focus-areas/unified_forecast_system/rrfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cperry29 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 20 minutes ago, Jaf316 said: What's the RRFS? It’s gonna replace the HRRR and 3k NAM among others later in 2024. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted January 17 Admin Share Posted January 17 12z NAM transferred the low to the coast with the second wave, but it's stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted January 17 Admin Share Posted January 17 If this thing would stay onshore and strengthen further instead of going out to sea.. it could be a monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 alot of models are drifting towards another I-80 sweet spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 (edited) NAM trying to make this an I-80 & north storm... Leaving the rest of us with scraps as we head into the warm pattern change - what a joke this would be 🤦🏻♂️💩 Edited January 17 by MesoscaleBanding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 (edited) definitely an overall shift north in the NAM from the MW eastward Edited January 17 by Ohiobuckeye45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3km is even uglier 💩 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaver56 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Trends are not looking the greatest at the moment. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 7 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said: 3km is even uglier 💩 this would be a disaster for I-70 south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cperry29 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 You’ll drive yourself crazy watching the NAM flip flop every 6 hours lol. My 0.02 is, give it til 12z tomorrow. I remember hearing Bernie Rayno mention he looks at the NAM in the 24hr range. That seems like sound advice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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