January 18-20, 2024 | Ohio Valley Snow event

[mafa]

6 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

2-4" looking like a decent call at the moment - and let's hope this is one of those systems that beef up the qpf a bit as we head into showtime. Won't take much to make this a very solid event. 

The vorts have looked a little stronger through these afternoon runs. Good trend so far

[BuckeyeGal]

Slightly less beefy with the RGEM in some spots (more moderating and coming back to the rest of guidance lol). Still snowing in some areas.

[BuckeyeGal]

ICON also follows slightly less beefy avenue (but still nice).

[RobB]

ILN AFD:

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Below normal temps are on tap through most, if not all, of the long
term period. And not to mention, this will occur within a stretch of
climatological annual minimums, which will translate to several days
with very cold/dangerous wind chills, especially Saturday/Sunday.

But before we return to the anomalous cold, there will several
opportunities for light snow across various portions of the ILN FA,
with the greatest potential for widespread accumulating snow likely
evolving Thursday night through early Friday afternoon.

As we progress Thursday morning into the afternoon, some light snow
should develop well in advance of the primary S/W, which quickly
translate to the ENE through the TN Vly during the daytime period.
This initial batch of light snow, which is likely to develop N of
the I-70 corridor stretching from nrn IL through nrn OH, will be the
byproduct of a mid/upper level jetstreak propagating through the
region. Still quite a bit of uncertainty as it relates to the
positioning of this W-E oriented light snow band, with the best
potential for a few tenths of an inch of snow accumulation Thursday
afternoon N of I-70.

By Thursday evening, the S/W will progress E into the srn OH Vly,
with an additional band of snow developing more across srn/central
KY. These two initially-distinct areas of light snow should
eventually congregate/merge late into the evening, with light snow
overspreading the remainder of the area late evening into the
overnight. There will be quite a bit of antecedent dry air in the
LLs to overcome before the profile becomes sufficiently saturated to
allow for the snow to make it to the ground. The best chance for at
least 0.5" of snow through the day Thursday will be near/N of I-70
and W of I-71, with ern parts of the ILN FA potentially remaining
dry through late afternoon.

The better forcing will arrive late Thursday night through Friday
morning as a fairly sharp S/W pivots in from the NW. This will
promote a progressive/steady increase in both coverage and intensity
of light snow after midnight, with high confidence in widespread
light accumulations Friday morning through early afternoon.

So... all in all, there appear to be three separate sources of
forcing, all of which will produce snow across the ILN FA through a
36 hour period -- focused at different times and in different
locations. The generally cold temperatures will support snow ratios
much greater than 10:1 (with 15:1 to 18:1 appearing the most likely
early Friday morning through early afternoon). Thus, even modest QPF
amounts should produce greater than 1 inch of accumulation.

Overall, the ensemble probabilities continue to suggest a widespread
1-3 inches of snow through the duration of the Thursday-Friday time
frame, but with low confidence in specific locations of the higher
amounts. With these types of higher-ratio events, certainly small
differences/increases in liquid-equivalent precip can have greater
impacts on the overall accumulation. And this is why 3-4" certainly
cannot be ruled out, especially near/N of I-70 into central OH where
the ensemble probability signal is the most robust. This being said,
did not have confidence at this juncture to move forward with any
headlines, but would certainly expect, at the very least, for a
large advisory (potentially covering the entire ILN FA) to
eventually be needed, depending on how data trends over the next 24
hours. So... will continue to mention accumulating snow in the HWO,
as this is still out on Day 2/3 of the forecast.

Temps on Friday will be a bit tricky as sfc CAA may begin relatively
early in the day near/W of I-71, which may allow for an "early" high
temp to be reached before plateauing and eventually trending
colder once again by late afternoon. The reinforcing arctic air
will move in late Friday/night, with air temps dipping into the
single digits once again Saturday morning and highs topping out
generally in the mid to upper teens during the day.

Although a few snow showers may linger into the day Saturday, the
main item of interest for the weekend is going to be the very cold
temps/wind chills. Will eventually need wind chill advisories for
wind chills around 10 degrees below zero across a large portion of
the ILN FA for Friday night/Saturday morning and potentially a
smaller portion (NW fringes) on Saturday night/Sunday, but will
continue to mention in HWO for now.

Warmer air will begin to return to the OH Vly early next week, with
a gradual increase in precip chances once again.

[BuckeyeGal]

"And this is why 3-4" certainly cannot be ruled out, especially near/N of I-70 into central OH where the ensemble probability signal is the most robust."

[RobB]

18Z GFS

 

[beaver56]

3 hours ago, RobB said:

18Z GFS

 

That is more like it. I am in that wedge in Indiana with the lower amounts. 😆 

Edited January 17 by beaver56

[RobB]

1 minute ago, beaver56 said:

That is more like. I am in that wedge in Indiana with the lower amounts. 😆 

LOL...Luckily, these things will not be locked down, even at hour 0...It taunts you!

[Ohiobuckeye45]

widespread 2-4'' seems locked in for now, and a Friday to boot, get to enjoy it for the whole weekend as fluff before its viciously swept away the return to norm but will damned sure to enjoy it while its here 😄 

[Crowbar]

4 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

widespread 2-4'' seems locked in for now, and a Friday to boot, get to enjoy it for the whole weekend as fluff before its viciously swept away the return to norm but will damned sure to enjoy it while its here 😄 

And maybe a snow day for the kids and teachers

[Crowbar]

On 1/14/2024 at 5:37 PM, BuckeyeGal said:

Given how storms have tended to laugh in our faces around this time out.. think it's best to wait on making any guesses on that, lol.

Ha I know - personally I’d rather my kids have school otherwise I have to stay home and work if my wife has to go in

[Columbusbuckeye]

6 minutes ago, Crowbar said:

And maybe a snow day for the kids and teachers

Based on how today played out in my wife/kids’ school district (Olentangy), I’m guessing they’ll be pretty lenient with it.  😉

[Crowbar]

Yep - we live in Olentangy and my wife teaches in Columbus.  I worked from home today but a client told me it was ridiculous that Olentangy didn’t delay

[RobB]

18Z GEFS mean qpf 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

just for reference, ILN mentions 15-18:1 and the GFS kuchera just punched out .30  (using text for CMH) from our ole coolwx, rounding down a smidge from leftover in to the 21st/22nd. and using the Kuchera method on pivotal at 4.4'' .30*15:1 = 4.5. So I would say using Kuchera maps here work quite well and you could even make a case slightly under selling if the higher end of those ratios play out

 

[MesoscaleBanding]

35 minutes ago, Columbusbuckeye said:

Based on how today played out in my wife/kids’ school district (Olentangy), I’m guessing they’ll be pretty lenient with it.  😉

 

27 minutes ago, Crowbar said:

Yep - we live in Olentangy and my wife teaches in Columbus.  I worked from home today but a client told me it was ridiculous that Olentangy didn’t delay

ABSOLUTELY! 

Every Delaware Co. superintendent dropped the ball this morning...Yeah, it was only 1" of snow, but the timing & lack of road treatments was everything. I passed 4 accidents on my way to work. Every bus in the district was late & none of the parking lots/sidewalks were cleared. Parents were livid. No idea why there wasn't a 2-hr. delay. The conditions warranted a no-brainer delay call. 

Edited January 16 by MesoscaleBanding

[BuckeyeGal]

38 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

 

ABSOLUTELY! 

Every Delaware Co. superintendent dropped the ball this morning...Yeah, it was only 1" of snow, but the timing & lack of road treatments was everything. I passed 4 accidents on my way to work. Every bus in the district was late & none of the parking lots/sidewalks were cleared. Parents were livid. No idea why there wasn't a 2-hr. delay. The conditions warranted a no-brainer delay call. 

We live in Westerville but in Delaware County, and even our drive was crap. Though I will say I find going 20 miles below the speed limit unnecessary. My blood pressure was through the roof by the time we made it to school.

[BuckeyeGal]

Roundup of latest models.

I say 3"-5". Going down with my Canadian ship. 😆

[cperry29]

4 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said:

Roundup of latest models.

I say 3"-5". Going down with my Canadian ship. 😆

Northeast thread was mostly praising the Canadians for how they handled the storm 2 days ago. They didn’t do so well for Ohio but 🤷🏻‍♂️

[Wnwniner]

29 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said:

Roundup of latest models.

I say 3"-5". Going down with my Canadian ship. 😆

Average of 4.5 for columbus. Nice!

[Leenita]

2 hours ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

 

ABSOLUTELY! 

Every Delaware Co. superintendent dropped the ball this morning...Yeah, it was only 1" of snow, but the timing & lack of road treatments was everything. I passed 4 accidents on my way to work. Every bus in the district was late & none of the parking lots/sidewalks were cleared. Parents were livid. No idea why there wasn't a 2-hr. delay. The conditions warranted a no-brainer delay call. 

I think an Olentangy bus ran off the road and hit a tree this morning.  Thankfully no one was injured.  

 

[Crowbar]

32 minutes ago, Leenita said:

I think an Olentangy bus ran off the road and hit a tree this morning.  Thankfully no one was injured.  

 

That’s what I heard from a client - that’s when he told me they should have delayed 

[Leenita]

7 minutes ago, Crowbar said:

That’s what I heard from a client - that’s when he told me they should have delayed 

Just got the text that Olentangy is canceled for tomorrow 

[JayPSU]

7 minutes ago, Leenita said:

Just got the text that Olentangy is canceled for tomorrow 

For the cold?  I mean, wouldn’t you want to wait until the morning to be sure it’s as cold as forecasted?  Many times it’s ended up not as cold as forecasted.  Odd.

[MesoscaleBanding]

Just now, JayPSU said:

For the cold?  I mean, wouldn’t you want to wait until the morning to be sure it’s as cold as forecasted?  Many times it’s ended up not as cold as forecasted.  Odd.

Majority of central OH districts have already closed or delayed tomorrow due to the wind chill forecast. They're always a bit trigger happy with the first couple closing/delay calls, especially when we're already halfway through the winter without using any calamity days.