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Jan. 19-20th, 2024 | Winter Storm Speculation


telejunkie

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7 hours ago, Lazman said:

Any Clapper Trappers in your future? Miss them. 🙃🤔😉

Haha. Probably on the next potential "bigger" one I'll whip out the old crayon box. 🙂

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That upper low, so far keeping the system to come over us 19th-20th.  If it stalls a bit, could push the storm system further south, or if it increases speed and moves out faster, could cause the storm system to push further north bringing rain to my area.

 

image.thumb.gif.6acd74d4e0d5ca8eb7f1f3af95b1b317.gif

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Looks like many areas see an increase in 9z SREF - much of PA gained a full one inch (but The Port saw less increase). 

That trend seems to apply as far N as CT/RI - but above that sees a decrease. S of PA sees slightly less increase, yet do increase. 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/

 

 

trend-srefens-2024011709-f069.sn10_acc-mean-imp.us_ne.gif

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7 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Looks like many areas see an increase in 9z SREF - much of PA gained a full one inch (but The Port saw less increase). 

That trend seems to apply as far N as CT/RI - but above that sees a decrease. S of PA sees slightly less increase, yet do increase. 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/

 

 

trend-srefens-2024011709-f069.sn10_acc-mean-imp.us_ne.gif

I'm thinking that ratio's will be another factor to consider. Arctic air can have 20:1 to 30:1 ratios. I'm curious where this one will end up.

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Just now, Rickrd said:

I'm thinking that ratio's will be another factor to consider. Arctic air can have 20:1 to 30:1 ratios. I'm curious where this one will end up.

Oh for sure we'll see north of 15:1 - especially since this begins in the wee hours and highs the day before never get to freezing mark. 

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3 minutes ago, LUCC said:

12k NAM has precip entering WPA around 3a Friday. 

H5 a bit stronger, decent transfer to the coast of S NC

SLP is nearly 3mb deeper, the precip shield contracts to adjust

 

image.thumb.png.30fdeaabb925dd944e6a3916890b399a.png

 

Edited by Undertakerson2.0
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1 hour ago, Cdfarabaugh said:

I like this storm, every few days  longer duration 2-4 4-6 events are enjoyable, and something we haven't had in awhile

NADS add up!

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You can see, in the precip snow output from run to run, that this one had a different transfer to the coast. This is why there is a middle ground huge reduction in snow totals (W MD and W VA primarily) - a corresponding increase to the E PA, NJ zones

trend-nam-2024011706-f063.snku_acc-imp.us_ma.gif

Edited by Undertakerson2.0
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Just now, Undertakerson2.0 said:

What up with CT/RI? Looks odd. 

trend-nam-2024011712-f078.snku_acc-imp.us_ma.gif

Good question. But as you and RT have already pointed out...still plenty of time. Definite improvement up at upper levels

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