Jump to content

Jan. 19-20th, 2024 | Winter Storm Speculation

telejunkie

By telejunkie
in United States

 Share

Recommended Posts

Recommended

Posted by so_whats_happening,

All good. So when I mentioned temps at the surface and 925mb in my previous post that is solely to state that temps can go as high as that but still have reasonable snow ratios above 10:1, more likely they will end up closer to 10:1 though. The NWS post is spot on and those are the most important factors to consider. The best way to describe it is there is a balance between moisture and temperature, the more moisture but warmer temp the further left you go in the snowflake chart. It can sti
Recommended by Sentinel
  • TROPHY
  • THANKS
  • THUMBS UP
  • LIKE

6 reactions

Go to this post
Recommended

Posted by so_whats_happening,

Another important thing I wanna throw out here is snowfall intensity, this is based off of visibility.  Heavy snow is 1/4 mile or less Moderate snow is above a 1/4 mile but less than or equal to 5/8ths of a mile (typically shown at 1/2 mile at ASOS) Light snow is considered above 5/8ths of a mile (typically shown 3/4 mile or above at ASOS).   So when you see a station reporting 3/4mile visibility this is still considered light snow. 1/2 mile gets switched to moderate sno
Recommended by Sentinel
  • THANKS
  • THUMBS UP
  • LIKE

4 reactions

Go to this post
JDClapper Grand Master

JDClapper

Posted
Posted

21 SREF are in.  Showing chance of 1"+ 4+" 24 hour trend (7pm Thu-7pm Fri) and mean snow fall for those 24 hours.  And the obligatory total snow mean for the run.  Northern Maine is today's system.

SREF still going against current WPC probs, where they focus on Southern PA, but SREF likes Northern PA/NY, Southern NE.

 

trend-srefens-2024011621-f075.sn10_024h-prob01.us_ne.gif

trend-srefens-2024011621-f075.sn10_024h-prob04.us_ne.gif

trend-srefens-2024011621-f075.sn10_024h-mean-imp.us_ne.gif

sn10_acc-mean-imp.us_ne.png

  • LIKE 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 1.3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

Paletitsnow63
Paletitsnow63

Hi everybody good to see you.  I know I couldn't lurk for long.  Especially after StretchCT caught me last night.  I had been thinking to join awhile back but had stuck with the other site.  I know a

stormsurf
stormsurf

Im so happy to have found you all again.   You may not remember me from the Accu days, mostly a lurker, but always enjoyed this bunch. I dont add much to the discussion, although you think I

Poco
Poco

12z cmc gfs and icon gif  sorry I can’t get too wordy in any post as some personal life hit hard this week but I’ll do my best and others can hopefully expand on this threat.    I’d start

Posted Images

NEPAsnow Proficient

NEPAsnow

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, JDClapper said:

21 SREF are in.  Showing chance of 1"+ 4+" 24 hour trend (7pm Thu-7pm Fri) and mean snow fall for those 24 hours.  And the obligatory total snow mean for the run.  Northern Maine is today's system.

SREF still going against current WPC probs, where they focus on Southern PA, but SREF likes Northern PA/NY, Southern NE.

 

trend-srefens-2024011621-f075.sn10_024h-prob01.us_ne.gif

trend-srefens-2024011621-f075.sn10_024h-prob04.us_ne.gif

trend-srefens-2024011621-f075.sn10_024h-mean-imp.us_ne.gif

sn10_acc-mean-imp.us_ne.png

snow  breeds snow, fits the trend this year

  • LIKE 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
JDClapper Grand Master

JDClapper

Posted
Posted

Some 21z SREF plumes around PA.  I listed periods of time with 40%+ chance of snow, the time period it was over 40% and mean snowfall (ratios considered).

  • Scranton:  52-73%, 7am-10pm, 4"
  • Williamsport:  45-70%, 7am-7pm Fri, 3"
  • Allentown:  45-55%, 10am-7pm, 2½"
  • Harrisburg:  40-46%, 7am-4pm, 1¾"
  • LIKE 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Moderators
StretchCT Grand Master

StretchCT

Posted
  • Moderators
Posted

Just a reminder when you look at some of the models, they show you radar reflectivity.  That doesn't always equate to precip.

image.thumb.png.083aec55fd7ec84c991bf06c3c33b3a5.png

3 hours later EPA still no snow.

image.thumb.png.0b3e794d5857e9c9385ade7974159abe.png

  • LIKE 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
JDClapper Grand Master

JDClapper

Posted
Posted
Just now, Penn State said:

IMG_0451.thumb.png.daa0bff6bd588fd37cc67ae9bb6c24c3.png

Another widespread 1-4", with  5 & 6" lolli's.  Rinse and repeat.  😮 

More curious to see what that Great and Amazing RGEM has to say this evening, then I'm hitting the sack early.  Up way too early today haha

  • LIKE 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Social Media Crew
Penn State Veteran

Penn State

Posted
  • Social Media Crew
Posted
5 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

Another widespread 1-4", with  5 & 6" lolli's.  Rinse and repeat.  😮 

More curious to see what that Great and Amazing RGEM has to say this evening, then I'm hitting the sack early.  Up way too early today haha

It definitely looks similar in-terms of impacts.. but I think this has higher “high-end” potential for parts of PA and Northern MD. I don’t think it would take much to see enhanced snowfall if the low can deepen, consolidate a little faster. In this last one, baseline was 2-4”.. boom 5-6”.. this I feel is at least a 3-5” baseline.. boom 8” (for central PA at least). I’ve been super impressed with the RGEM. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
JDClapper Grand Master

JDClapper

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Penn State said:

It definitely looks similar in-terms of impacts.. but I think this has higher “high-end” potential for parts of PA and Northern MD. I don’t think it would take much to see enhanced snowfall if the low can deepen, consolidate a little faster. In this last one, baseline was 2-4”.. boom 5-6”.. this I feel is at least a 3-5” baseline.. boom 8” (for central PA at least). I’ve been super impressed with the RGEM. 

Yeah, if RGEM comes in with another pink bullseye clown map tonight, just may be something to it.. watch others play catchup the next 36 hours.

Or .... 

  • THUMBS UP 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
JDClapper Grand Master

JDClapper

Posted
Posted

Backed off a little on higher end totals, but still a nice widespread 3-5".  Looks like it all bumped a little north, same as NAM .. moving towards SREF?

Anywho, good stuff.  Have a good night all.

trend-rdps-2024011700-f072.snku_024h-imp.us_ne.gif

  • LIKE 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Lazman Proficient

Lazman

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, JDClapper said:

Some 21z SREF plumes around PA.  I listed periods of time with 40%+ chance of snow, the time period it was over 40% and mean snowfall (ratios considered).

  • Scranton:  52-73%, 7am-10pm, 4"
  • Williamsport:  45-70%, 7am-7pm Fri, 3"
  • Allentown:  45-55%, 10am-7pm, 2½"
  • Harrisburg:  40-46%, 7am-4pm, 1¾"

Any Clapper Trappers in your future? Miss them. 🙃🤔😉

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Admin
MaineJay Grand Master

MaineJay

Posted
  • Admin
Posted

The H7 wave seems like it's trying to turn negative, but that vorticity near the Canadian maritimes/northern ME keeps it progressing until it gets over the Atlantic and finally closes off a circulation.  

   Please don't take this to mean, "it's not going to snow", it's just something to watch.  If it can back off that would help. By the way, I'm not expecting the snow here to breed more snow in my backyard.

namconus_z700_vort_eus_fh45-84.gif

  • THUMBS UP 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Wtkidz Mentor

Wtkidz

Posted
Posted

Sterling’s thoughts. 
  

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will allow for another dry day Thursday but with
increasing high clouds to quickly follow. It will not be as cold
as today with sunshine. Highs Thursday will range from the
middle 20s in the west to the middle 40s along the Chesapeake
Bay.

An upper level disturbance will push in behind a cold front
Thursday night into Friday and the two will bring a sufficient
opportunity for more accumulating snowfall later Thursday night
and into the early half of the day on Friday. Most of the snow
accumulation will take place Friday during the morning with
only the higher elevations seeing any accumulation before 12Z
Friday. All areas have an opportunity to see snow accumulation.
Southern Maryland and perhaps north toward the Annapolis and
Chesapeake Bay Bridge could encounter a little rainfall mixing
with snowfall as a slightly warmer wedge of air tries to push in
from the southeast Friday morning and midday. Temperatures will
be slightly colder at the onset and even during the duration of
this event compared to earlier in the week. Highs Friday look
to remain below average with temperatures in the upper 20s and
low 30s.

Behind the strong front and wave of low pressure comes another
blast of Arctic air Friday night. Lows Friday night will fall
back into the single digits and teens with gusty northwesterly
winds pushing wind chills into the single digits.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share
Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...