Jan. 19-20th, 2024 | Winter Storm Speculation

[JDClapper]

Bahahahhahaha. BILL!!!!

[Undertakerson2.0]

Just now, Undertakerson2.0 said:

This is even more shocking - they put out what I call a real clown map this early??

 

Just now, JDClapper said:

CTP already out with first thoughts. Afterall, we will be 48 hours away from the event tomorrow morning.

ha ha - get outta my head Clapper

[Rickrd]

Mt Holly

[Greenjacket]

4 minutes ago, Rickrd said:

Mt Holly

[Wtkidz]

Lax AFD

 

Clear and very cold Wednesday under building high pressure. Center of high pressure will shift south of the area Wed night- Thu morning with good radiational cooling conditions with fresh snowpack, light winds and clear skies, although high clouds will be on the increase the second half of the night. Next upper air disturbance around broad upper trough will approach the area Thu night spreading light snow across the area late Thu night and early Friday. Most of the snow accumulation will take place during the day Fri with only the higher elevs seeing any accumulation before 12Z

 

Fri. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Renewed chances for snow Friday with another blast of cold air for the weekend. Another upper level trough of low pressure and its associated strong cold front look to pass through the area late Thursday night into much of Friday. This storm system looks to bring another round of wintry weather to the region. Current 12z ensemble/deterministic guidance shows a slightly stronger wave of low pressure compared to what we saw today. Temperatures will be slightly colder at the onset and even during the duration of this event compared to earlier in the week. Both the 12z GFS and ECMWF illustrate a low pressure system ejecting from the central Appalachians northeast toward the Virginia Tidewater and coastal Carolinas. The 12Z ECWMF is a bit stronger and features a bit more forcing/QPF compared to the GFS and GEM counterparts. With the low off to the south more cold air is readily available for a predominantly snow event for most locations. Some rain and perhaps freezing rain/sleet may mix in along and east of I-95 where warmer air could push in. As for accumulations, they should remain light, but will be highly dependent upon the track of the low pressure, moisture availability, and timing of precipitation (with the bulk falling potentially during the daylight hours). Confidence has increased somewhat per the 12z guidance, for a minor impact event, but will need to be further evaluated as we are 3 days out. Highs Friday look to remain below average with temperatures in the upper 20s and low 30s.

 

[Wtkidz]

Early thoughts

Edited January 16 by Wtkidz

[StretchCT]

[MaineJay]

5 hours ago, Poco said:

12z cmc gfs and icon gif 

sorry I can’t get too wordy in any post as some personal life hit hard this week but I’ll do my best and others can hopefully expand on this threat.
 

 I’d start really paying attention to the higher res short range models now,  especially orientation and interaction those energy parcels and how the surface reflects, remember that embedded negative trough inside the ull will likely have some nice dynamics as the pac vort Max partially phases and rounds the bend /passes over 

Hope all is well my friend.

[clm]

17 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

2.2 for LI but can't help but think that may not be achievable.  Most models show nothing or barely an inch

[Wtkidz]

[JDClapper]

Chances of 1"+, 2"+ and 4"+ from 7pm Thursday to 7pm Friday.  Just updated after 4pm.

 

[JDClapper]

RGEM H5 .. another piecemeal system.  When and where each piece goes, we sort of know.  But we don't KNOW know.  🙂

 

[RPHSnamwolp]

Any use in looking at NAVGEM here? Shouldn’t this allude to the potential for a more “inside” track? 

[Undertakerson2.0]

10 minutes ago, RPHSnamwolp said:

Any use in looking at NAVGEM here? Shouldn’t this allude to the potential for a more “inside” track? 

Indeed it should 

[Rickrd]

10 minutes ago, RPHSnamwolp said:

Any use in looking at NAVGEM here? Shouldn’t this allude to the potential for a more “inside” track? 

Yes

[RPHSnamwolp]

Thank you oh wise ones @Rickrd & @Undertakerson2.0 slowly catching on over the years of following along here 

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

RPH, if they’re your wise men, best of luck!

[Undertakerson2.0]

7 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

RPH, if they’re your wise men, best of luck!

Add you in the group and it's the three wise guys. 

[Phillyfan]

16 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Add you in the group and it's the three wise guys. 

[Undertakerson2.0]

14 minutes ago, Phillyfan said:

Hey - I resemble that remark!

[Lazman]

My tree is down, as Caspar, Melchior, and Balthazar were here last week. Nyuk, nyuk, nyuk. 

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

just a bit of an fyi here, cuz i’m anal. This isn’t quite the transitioning out of a cold into warm pattern storm thang. Those many times are our biggins’ in the past. This one, the warmer comes in a few days later, with serious cold right after. Look at the confluence. The historic ones were the cold holding on just long enough most times for the storm, with melting right after. 

[Undertakerson2.0]

3 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

just a bit of an fyi here, cuz i’m anal. This isn’t quite the transitioning out of a cold into warm pattern storm thang. Those many times are our biggins’ in the past. This one, the warmer comes in a few days later, with serious cold right after. Look at the confluence. The historic ones were the cold holding on just long enough most times for the storm, with melting right after. 

[Lazman]

1 hour ago, JDClapper said:

RGEM H5 .. another piecemeal system.  When and where each piece goes, we sort of know.  But we don't KNOW know.  🙂

 

Bowling Ball storm. 

[Lazman]

6 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Facts