Jan. 19-20th, 2024 | Winter Storm Speculation

[TheComet]

Just now, Penn State said:

RDPS with another strong showing

Rare lake-enhanced snows along easter coast of Wisconsin/NE Illinois with this run. Might even clip Chicago

[Jerseyflake]

12 hours ago, JDClapper said:

How exciting that this time tomorrow we can already start trying to figure out details on this one.. 2-3 days away tomorrow night. Wish this happened more often.

Been a long time since we've seen a pattern like this. At least any duration.

[Rickrd]

My 2 cents and was discussing with RT and UT the other day. Makes sense with the pattern and also, a storm usually comes before a pattern change which is coming next week, albeit, it will be a short warmup before February drops the hammer.

[Chris2333]

1 hour ago, LongIslanGurlllll said:

More south please! I’ve changed over to all rain at work on south shore but my house on north shore is ice 🤦🏼‍♀️

I read this too quickly and saw “my house on the south shore and my house on the north shore” and instantly thought…

[Rickrd]

GFS, as much as I don't trust it, looks better at 12Z today compared to last night's run at 0Z

[LongIslanGurlllll]

5 minutes ago, Chris2333 said:

I read this too quickly and saw “my house on the south shore and my house on the north shore” and instantly thought…

Lmao!!!! I wish!

[Undertakerson2.0]

5 minutes ago, Rickrd said:

GFS, as much as I don't trust it, looks better at 12Z today compared to last night's run at 0Z

Hard to have looked any worse than it did. Nice to see it starting to catch on though

[Undertakerson2.0]

Baby-GG kinda the same but a step "right" perhaps. Still a very nice storm verbatim. 

[Rickrd]

Yes. They're sniffing out something. Same thing as last storm. They don't do well with Cold Cold weather. This is close though to smacking the east coast if and when it bombs out.

[Wtkidz]

[Undertakerson2.0]

Big-G also dumps a swift half footer across much of PA 

Trim 1-2.5" in general off these amounts to account for snow it showed yet today 

Edited January 16 by Undertakerson2.0

[Rickrd]

2 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Big-G also dumps a swift half footer across much of PA 

Trim 1-2.5" in general off these amounts to account for snow it showed yet today 

A PA SPECIAL! more to come I believe with this one. Think it will end up bombing out off Hatteras and then shoot towards Nantucket. Lets see how that works out.

[clm]

Looks like mayyyyyybe 1/2" for Long Island

[clm]

[Poco]

12z cmc gfs and icon gif 

sorry I can’t get too wordy in any post as some personal life hit hard this week but I’ll do my best and others can hopefully expand on this threat.
 

 I’d start really paying attention to the higher res short range models now,  especially orientation and interaction those energy parcels and how the surface reflects, remember that embedded negative trough inside the ull will likely have some nice dynamics as the pac vort Max partially phases and rounds the bend /passes over 

Edited January 16 by Poco

[TheComet]

33 minutes ago, Wtkidz said:

Is she chasing convection? Maybe the models have a hard time pinpointing where the baroclinic zone sets up

Edited January 16 by TheComet

[JDClapper]

2 minutes ago, Poco said:

12z cmc gfs and icon gif 

sorry I can’t get too wordy in any post as some personal life hit hard this week but I’ll do my best and others can hopefully expand on this threat.
 

 I’d start really paying attention to the higher res short range models now,  especially orientation and interaction those energy parcels and how the surface reflects, remember that embedded negative trough inside the ull will likely have some nice dynamics as the vort Max passes over 

I love it when u talk dirty to us Poc.

[Gettysburger]

2 minutes ago, Poco said:

12z cmc gfs and icon gif 

sorry I can’t get too wordy in any post as some personal life hit hard this week but I’ll do my best and others can hopefully expand on this threat.
 

 I’d start really paying attention to the higher res short range models now,  especially orientation and interaction those energy parcels and how the surface reflects, remember that embedded negative trough inside the ull will likely have some nice dynamics as the vort Max passes over 

Sorry to hear that. Praying for you. 
 

Thank you for your input on this. This event definitely looks more promising right now. Will definitely have to keep an eye on this one. 

[Rickrd]

7 minutes ago, Poco said:

12z cmc gfs and icon gif 

sorry I can’t get too wordy in any post as some personal life hit hard this week but I’ll do my best and others can hopefully expand on this threat.
 

 I’d start really paying attention to the higher res short range models now,  especially orientation and interaction those energy parcels and how the surface reflects, remember that embedded negative trough inside the ull will likely have some nice dynamics as the pac vort Max partially phases and rounds the bend /passes over 

Thanks Poc. Thoughts and prayers. 

[clm]

8 minutes ago, Poco said:

12z cmc gfs and icon gif 

sorry I can’t get too wordy in any post as some personal life hit hard this week but I’ll do my best and others can hopefully expand on this threat.
 

 I’d start really paying attention to the higher res short range models now,  especially orientation and interaction those energy parcels and how the surface reflects, remember that embedded negative trough inside the ull will likely have some nice dynamics as the pac vort Max partially phases and rounds the bend /passes over 

Hope things look up soon for you

[lvnbraves]

Hang in there, Poco.

I am still relatively illiterate when it comes to figuring out timing from models.  00Z is what EST?  6 pm the day before?  Is that right?

Kids are speculating on delays on Friday.

[clm]

2 minutes ago, lvnbraves said:

Hang in there, Poco.

I am still relatively illiterate when it comes to figuring out timing from models.  00Z is what EST?  6 pm the day before?  Is that right?

Kids are speculating on delays on Friday.

Zulu time is 5 hours ahead of EST.

I played cards with the natives last night.

Zulus?

No, I won.

[Jerseyflake]

17 minutes ago, Poco said:

12z cmc gfs and icon gif 

sorry I can’t get too wordy in any post as some personal life hit hard this week but I’ll do my best and others can hopefully expand on this threat.
 

 I’d start really paying attention to the higher res short range models now,  especially orientation and interaction those energy parcels and how the surface reflects, remember that embedded negative trough inside the ull will likely have some nice dynamics as the pac vort Max partially phases and rounds the bend /passes over 

Best of luck with whatever is the matter sir.

[RobB]

24 minutes ago, Poco said:

12z cmc gfs and icon gif 

sorry I can’t get too wordy in any post as some personal life hit hard this week but I’ll do my best and others can hopefully expand on this threat.
 

 I’d start really paying attention to the higher res short range models now,  especially orientation and interaction those energy parcels and how the surface reflects, remember that embedded negative trough inside the ull will likely have some nice dynamics as the pac vort Max partially phases and rounds the bend /passes over 

Be well! 🙏

[Wtkidz]

1 hour ago, Poco said:

12z cmc gfs and icon gif 

sorry I can’t get too wordy in any post as some personal life hit hard this week but I’ll do my best and others can hopefully expand on this threat.
 

 I’d start really paying attention to the higher res short range models now,  especially orientation and interaction those energy parcels and how the surface reflects, remember that embedded negative trough inside the ull will likely have some nice dynamics as the pac vort Max partially phases and rounds the bend /passes over 

Hope all  works out .  Know your weather family cares.