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Jan. 19-20th, 2024 | Winter Storm Speculation


telejunkie

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I need that upper low north of the lakes back towards the sw.  I need the connection between it and the other deeper low gone, and the deeper low preferably to a proper 50/50.  

image.thumb.png.d8d8c396e4d41a162df7e68a1320f8a1.png

 

It's a lot to ask. But as it stands, too much westerlies in the picture.

image.thumb.png.b3861afa01395fa1e5de8d16bf4239e4.png

 

Edited by StretchCT
got my directions mixed up
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35 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

I need that upper low north of the lakes back towards the sw.  I need the connection between it and the other deeper low gone, and the deeper low preferably to a proper 50/50.  

image.thumb.png.d8d8c396e4d41a162df7e68a1320f8a1.png

 

It's a lot to ask. But as it stands, too much westerlies in the picture.

image.thumb.png.b3861afa01395fa1e5de8d16bf4239e4.png

 

Given how the GFS mishandled the system we're in right now, I wouldn't lean on it being correct atm. 

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17 minutes ago, NEPAsnow said:

what does everyone think of Bastardi's post

 

He obviously sees something.. I haven’t seen much support outside of what he’s saying. I know he hypes the winter side, but he’s still a smart weather guy. Bernie mentioned something too. I’m thinking once this resolves, there will be changes. Plus watch the short range models. 

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1 hour ago, StretchCT said:

Struggling to understand what he means about the neg tilted trough.

He means this 

IMG_3782.thumb.jpeg.e73617aa480df8715e11947b0f3700e3.jpeg

first line is the neg trough, he means as it travels from Ohio to Massachusetts coast.  I put dashed and another line where it goes eventually. He’s saying the storm will be closer to coast and not OTS as that artic front rotates through 

gif below 

IMG_3783.thumb.gif.6ce42242cd5cbc4dfbcbb9aa8e036dc1.gif

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6 hours ago, JDClapper said:

How exciting that this time tomorrow we can already start trying to figure out details on this one.. 2-3 days away tomorrow night. Wish this happened more often.

Looking at the SREFs for the current storm and seeing the next one at the tail end. Love it.

This will be another high ratio event so won't take as much precip to squeeze out a few inches.  I miss these cold snows!

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So are we going to believe the GFS and Euro surface depiction is right with this one while mesos are coming in with a more organizedd precip field, albeit in their "long range" hours? Is this a fool me once situation, or are the top 2 globals going to lead the way?

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1 hour ago, JDClapper said:

So are we going to believe the GFS and Euro surface depiction is right with this one while mesos are coming in with a more organizedd precip field, albeit in their "long range" hours? Is this a fool me once situation, or are the top 2 globals going to lead the way?

I'll side with Baby G at this point (I guess that means I grudgingly have to let Big G tag along)

The other big boys ain't doin it for me

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20 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Enjoy this down south. Patient is flat lining up here.

Screenshot_20240116-060454.thumb.png.a9e314edbde94504a1d40d2d67a22669.png

Doesnt look much better down here either, but tbh, today's event had a similar look on EPS too... so, we shall see.

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9z srefs with a robust, west to east, band of snow. There are some bangers mixed in there, looking at the plumes.

POPs 60%+ here in Central PA, which is pretty impressive for long rang SREF. 

sn10_024h-mean-imp.us_ne.png

Edited by JDClapper
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