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Jan. 19-20th, 2024 | Winter Storm Speculation

telejunkie

By telejunkie
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Posted by so_whats_happening,

All good. So when I mentioned temps at the surface and 925mb in my previous post that is solely to state that temps can go as high as that but still have reasonable snow ratios above 10:1, more likely they will end up closer to 10:1 though. The NWS post is spot on and those are the most important factors to consider. The best way to describe it is there is a balance between moisture and temperature, the more moisture but warmer temp the further left you go in the snowflake chart. It can sti
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Posted by so_whats_happening,

Another important thing I wanna throw out here is snowfall intensity, this is based off of visibility.  Heavy snow is 1/4 mile or less Moderate snow is above a 1/4 mile but less than or equal to 5/8ths of a mile (typically shown at 1/2 mile at ASOS) Light snow is considered above 5/8ths of a mile (typically shown 3/4 mile or above at ASOS).   So when you see a station reporting 3/4mile visibility this is still considered light snow. 1/2 mile gets switched to moderate sno
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so_whats_happening Veteran

so_whats_happening

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Just now, Undertakerson2.0 said:

then how does the strong differential promote (or inhibit) insitu effect. 

The more of the color fill you see the stronger the lifting is in that region the heavier the precip will be. You can see the darker greens represent the stronger precip down in SE VA. 

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Undertakerson2.0 Grand Master

Undertakerson2.0

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1 minute ago, so_whats_happening said:

The more of the color fill you see the stronger the lifting is in that region the heavier the precip will be. You can see the darker greens represent the stronger precip down in SE VA. 

thank you for helping us (yes, even me) to better understand the processes. 

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so_whats_happening Veteran

so_whats_happening

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I hate to even mention it but this was almost a damn near perfect system for the mid atlantic. Still a solid precip producer but had the energy off the coast held off a bit longer it would have been an even more fun one.

Meaning if the low wasn't already out in the ocean like it is and a tad bit more NW.

Edited by so_whats_happening
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JDClapper Grand Master

JDClapper

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1 hour ago, JDClapper said:

Light snow, not micro flakes, but tiny.  0.5", not a terrible start.  Just need to get to 2" and I'm satisfied on this one. ha

CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-regional-northeast-comp_radar-02_55Z-20240119_map_noBar-40-1n-10-100.gif

7am: 0.7" 

Rates pretty much as forecast, 0.1", 0.2" there. Just missing a steady band to my south over the mountain. Cant win em all I suppose. 😄

however, that verifies that little "nose" rap and hrrr was showing all agternoon yesterday. 👍

inmaREPA_.gif

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Undertakerson2.0 Grand Master

Undertakerson2.0

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Just now, so_whats_happening said:

I hate to even mention it but this was almost a damn near perfect system for the mid atlantic. Still a solid precip producer but had the energy off the coast held off a bit longer it would have been an even more fun one.

Yep _ RTC mentioned along those lines yesterday. Any kind of braking mechanism downstream would have made this on par with Feb 2010 events 

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so_whats_happening Veteran

so_whats_happening

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Just now, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Yep _ RTC mentioned along those lines yesterday. Any kind of braking mechanism downstream would have made this on par with Feb 2010 events 

ho hum soon enough we will get one until then enjoy the snows im about to head out from work.

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Burr Grand Master

Burr

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7 hours ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

Waiting to see a new pic of Stretch climbing out of the server lab. Dusty , shirt torn, eyes bulging, hair standing straight up, looking like the one robber from Home Alone. I will let the door hit me in the arss on the way out 👍

I can’t believe we crashed over a 4” snowstorm.

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JDClapper Grand Master

JDClapper

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2 minutes ago, WeatherFlash said:

Steading accumulating dendrites - danville pa

Yeah, nice little band down along 80 this morning. Imagine they will reach 2" easy, could push 3" by afternoon.

CODNEXLAB-NEXRAD-CCX-N0B-20240119-1227-24-100.gif

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Rush Proficient

Rush

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Was getting a little nervous as the western edge of the precip passed us and it hadn't filled in as modeled.  That changed quick as a band sprung up over top of us.  2.5" so far with moderate snowfall currently.

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Weathertop Collaborator

Weathertop

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52 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Last 4 SREFs - this is likely the last SREF run that won't include already fallen snow

 

trend-srefens-2024011909-f018.snod-mean-imp.us_ma.gif

As far as us valley folk go, Looks good for just north or south of Mason-Dixon line doing well with this one.

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Undertakerson2.0 Grand Master

Undertakerson2.0

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Just now, Snowadelphia said:

27 degrees here NW of Philly. Coming down at a good clip. Main roads are dicey and side streets are completely covered. I haven’t gotten out there to measure yet but I’d eye ball it around an inch already.

Nice. And... go O&B, on another tear rn

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Rickrd Veteran

Rickrd

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12 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

Looking at radar and listening to reports on tv, heavier stuff already moving into Bucks cty, Philly subs. This one is theirs.

Son in Manayunk says it’s snowing pretty hard now. 

Edited by Rickrd
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Chris2333 Community Regular

Chris2333

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Just now, Snowadelphia said:

Indeed. I’m one neighborhood over. Wouldn’t say it’s “puking” snow…but it’s coming down at a good clip right now

I’m in Mt. Laurel (NJ) and it’s definitely coming down more than I expected already, been a very long time since I could say my area was in what could be considered the bullseye for a storm we usually get dryslotted. 

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