Jan. 19-20th, 2024 | Winter Storm Speculation

[TLChip]

Just started light snow on my way to snag my partner. 
 

thanks for the info MJ. 

[JDClapper]

Radar looks pretty rough, patchy up this way.  But, if HRRR is correct, about 9am-12pm there's a bit of a boost/fill-in before moving out, to get that majority of folks up to that 2" threshold.

[so_whats_happening]

Heavy snow and a little over 2". Gonna be a rough ride home hope people stay home with it being friday.

[JDClapper]

Some upstream disappointment in the Midwest thread .. never a good thing to read if hoping for surprises.

[Undertakerson2.0]

4 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Heavy snow and a little over 2". Gonna be a rough ride home hope people stay home with it being friday.

The State has off today - so you got that going for ya

[Anthonyweather]

Good luck to the folks down south.

 

i continue to see this as a non event for the Lehigh Valley and points north

[Wtkidz]

Wife is happy. Schools were on 2 hour delay  now closed. 
 

1-2 or 2-3 does not matter. The idiots are still on the road.

Dry slot coming down here.

 

 

[TheComet]

1 minute ago, Wtkidz said:

Wife is happy. Schools were on 2 hour delay  now closed. 
 

1-2 or 2-3 does not matter. The idiots are still on the road.

Dry slot coming down here.

 

 

That and arctic air mass in place guarantees anything that falls will stick. School cancelled in Monroe county in PA too.

[TheComet]

Snow began around 5:10am here, light, 21F

[Squepp]

Snow began around 445 here. Currently 25° moderate snow. Forecast 4-6 inches 

NWS once again waited until the last second to upgrade to a WSW for my area. They issued it at 328am. Who the heck is going to see that. Lol. Oh well, just shows their confidence in winter weather as of late. They handled Tuesday storm in same fashion 

[Undertakerson2.0]

9 minutes ago, Squepp said:

Snow began around 445 here. Currently 25° moderate snow. Forecast 4-6 inches 

NWS once again waited until the last second to upgrade to a WSW for my area. They issued it at 328am. Who the heck is going to see that. Lol. Oh well, just shows their confidence in winter weather as of late. They handled Tuesday storm in same fashion 

Shoot that's nothin! MT Holly issued WSW MIDEVENT the past two times. 

[so_whats_happening]

I would not be surprised if they do pull the trigger and add york and lancaster county to WSW status the way it looks to be setting up right now sure does warrant it.

Maybe even adams county I believe that is where gettysburg is

Edited January 19 by so_whats_happening

[Undertakerson2.0]

Just now, so_whats_happening said:

https://radar.weather.gov/station/KCCX/standard

I am on the very N periphery of the S PA best returns and even there it's coming down fairly decent rate

[so_whats_happening]

2 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

I am on the very N periphery of the S PA best returns and even there it's coming down fairly decent rate

I couldn't figure out how to get the thing to show the radar without clicking the link.

Yea that batch SW of you has caught my eye should continue slowly east.

[Undertakerson2.0]

2 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

I couldn't figure out how to get the thing to show the radar without clicking the link.

Yea that batch SW of you has caught my eye should continue slowly east.

In this image, I am right at the second R in Harrisburg. 

[Penn State]

6 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

I am on the very N periphery of the S PA best returns and even there it's coming down fairly decent rate

Same here! Hoping the back end can fill in.. but at least I’m in some of the better returns for the moment. 

[so_whats_happening]

3 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

In this image, I am right at the second R in Harrisburg. 

Nice!

Yea this is why it has caught my eye. 850mb trying to capture the surface too. Will definitely be a little too far away but still that is your norlun like feature setting up.

Edited January 19 by so_whats_happening

[Undertakerson2.0]

Just now, so_whats_happening said:

Nice!

Yea this is why it has caught my eye

850 fronto, nice. Often it's H7 that we look to the most, but H8.5 can also produce, as is evident. 

[so_whats_happening]

Just now, Undertakerson2.0 said:

850 fronto, nice. Often it's H7 that we look to the most, but H8.5 can also produce, as is evident. 

Yea H7 isn't all too setup just yet but getting there some fronto near the coast.

Also checking out 925mb it has virtually captured that with the coastal just off OBX.

[MDBlueridge]

Prob 3" of new snow out there. 19F. Boys had just plowed this lot. 

Edited January 19 by MDBlueridge

[Undertakerson2.0]

 

 

A bit above my knowledge base - I know divergence causes heights to fall and convergence promotes a rise. So why such overlap?

SWH or anyone else care to explain in layman terms. Is this relative to wind speed at heights? Of am I simply misreading this as being conflicting when in fact it's self perpetuating? 

 

[Undertakerson2.0]

Last 4 SREFs - this is likely the last SREF run that won't include already fallen snow

 

[so_whats_happening]

6 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

 

 

A bit above my knowledge base - I know divergence causes heights to fall and convergence promotes a rise. So why such overlap?

SWH or anyone else care to explain in layman terms. Is this relative to wind speed at heights? Of am I simply misreading this as being conflicting when in fact it's self perpetuating? 

 

Red lines are your low level convergence purples are your upper level divergence showing strong lift where they overlap. The color fill is to show just how strong those differences are.

[Undertakerson2.0]

Sure looks like a Cumberland Gapper* to my eyes

* when the transfer happens through the geo region of the CG along the Apps) 

[Undertakerson2.0]

1 minute ago, so_whats_happening said:

Red lines are your low level convergence purples are your upper level divergence showing strong lift where they overlap. The color fill is to show just how strong those differences are.

then how does the strong differential promote (or inhibit) insitu effect.