Jan. 19-20th, 2024 | Winter Storm Speculation

[so_whats_happening]

Went from nothing to 3/4 mile visibility in less than an hour.

[Undertakerson2.0]

6 hours ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

What’s wrong with you?

You know what. It's nice of you to act as if you don't though.

6 hours ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

Great guy, and an innocent handle, that we juveniles turned into so much more( mind if i lump you in with us juveniles? Thinkin yea 😀😀

Yeah

6 hours ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

This was a new invention started over a year ago, to help centralize road info and alerts- and to help with stranded trucks. Again, it is a govt operation, so there’s that. What the theory was, according to the state when they explained it to us was to pre plan so that a truck/trucker would not embark on a trip, only to find that a road was closed, etc. yes to wind conditions also. Much different with a truck  to reroute, especially late. 
ya, we think it is gross overkill, and a govt op. But, it is nice to know that something like a major thoroughfare is restricted before you leave though.

Remember, every gov't overkill almost always starts with people being hurt or losing their lives. (former gov't lackey here and must defend my fellow troops)

6 hours ago, Inferno said:

This is art

It's great that someone recognizes talent when they see it (or is too polite to not point out BS)

6 hours ago, JDClapper said:

Was that the November, I think 2018? storm?  That was a disaster.  2-5" forecast turned 9-12" reality.

I'm not sure if it was that one or the other one or two disasters I can recall on I-78

6 hours ago, Miller A said:

Not to worry, I hear it’s open bottle 

It's always open bottle here. 24/7/365 - what make this place the tops

6 hours ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

I can’t remember the one Clap, but the time frame seems accurate. It wasn’t the huge amount of snow here with that one, but the fact that “ that” portion of the road has a hill and is really exposed to drifting. That part of the road has been redone to help alleviate. 

We did a bad thing when we got rid of snow fences

5 hours ago, JDClapper said:

Hmmph - someone doing weather on  a weather page. And they ask what's wrong with ME

5 hours ago, Lazman said:

Our coastal component is starting to pop. Jax rule not in effect. 🤔

I love the fact that we still call it Jax Rule. 

5 hours ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

Was just reading. The perennial moving target , the inverted trough, almost never moves south. Other direction. Yet this one sank to the bottom of the Atlantic. Need our resident guru, MJ, to explain that is and why this didn’t, but just remember from the single A days in the minors at the old old days of Accu-,when the LV was at ground zero 2 days ago, zero chance of that happening. It’s likeca birthday balloon that somehow survived a trip through the atmosphere. Try figuring out where that winds up.

Man, you are absolutely on fire tonight. The King of Analogy too. 

3 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Went from nothing to 3/4 mile visibility in less than an hour.

Pretty much right on time then. I figured it would start at the beginning of Rooster Shift (is that in the glossary btw?) 

[Rheino]

 

4am start was right on. Hrrr and nam looking good for central Md through s pa

[Undertakerson2.0]

The latest CTP  Sno -guess map. Likely gonna change based on recent modeling (adj lower to the N and maybe add to the S?) 

[Rush]

Nothing like waking up and being upgraded to a Warning.  NAM has really jumped up for almost all of Maryland the last two runs.  Almost 6" across the northern counties of the state.

Driveway already covered.  Moderate snow.

Edited January 19 by Rush

[Rheino]

Bernie, Bernie, Bernie lol

[Miller A]

A couple soft yellow 6-8” lollipops popping up on Holly map

[Undertakerson2.0]

4 minutes ago, Miller A said:

A couple soft yellow 6-8” lollipops popping up on Holly map

Don't let LUCC know, he might faint. 

[so_whats_happening]

Sitting at a little over a half inch probably in 1" per hour rates right now.

[Undertakerson2.0]

And so too it begins here. 

[Undertakerson2.0]

Honestly - it's been a long time since only the MidAtl had their very own storm - not much New England 

[TLChip]

Quote

000
FXUS61 KPHI 190656
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
156 AM EST Fri Jan 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure will develop overnight off the North
Carolina coast then track northeastward through Friday bringing
accumulating snow to our area. The center of arctic high
pressure builds into the Ohio Valley later Saturday, then it
settles over our area Sunday night into Monday before shifting
offshore. A front may settle southward into our area Wednesday
into Thursday as one or more weak low pressure systems track
along it.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As we head through the overnight, the latest model guidance has
continued a shift south, focusing the inverted trough extending
westward from Friday`s coastal low back closer to the Delaware
coast rather than southern NJ. Dewpoints have been running
slightly lower than forecast, signaling some low-level dry air
that will be initially tough to overcome as light snow aloft
continues to spread toward our region from the Appalachians
during the predawn hours. Still looking at light snow arriving
generally between 5 and 7 AM, with it just entering eastern West
Virginia and far western Maryland between 1 to 2 AM. Much of
the guidance suggests that the steadier snow will focus more on
southern NJ into Delaware at it`s peak this afternoon, and
linger there longest as the coastal low pulls away, dragging the
inverted trough behind it. While higher snow ratios may make up
the difference for a bit less liquid equivalent precipitation
along the northern edge of the steadier snow, all these
indications suggest that we`ll have to adjust some of our totals
downward somewhat north of Philadelphia to Tom`s River or so.
Will continue to analyze the data over the next few hours.

Current: edit MRMS isn't loading for some reason.


HRRR

Edited January 19 by TLChip

[Rheino]

[Undertakerson2.0]

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Updated near term forecast is holding firm/consistent with previous storm total snowfall. Radar shows light snow expanding to the northeast and reaching the ground across south central PA as of 08-09Z. No changes to the previous winter wx headlines although some consideration was given toward warning upgrade in the far southeast where hires models show a potential fgen band pivoting over northern MD/DE into southern NJ. Confidence was just not high enough to pull trigger on warning right now with the HREF and NBM probs more bullish over areas just south of the MD line. Reliance on higher QPF and SLRs can also be a risky proposition, so will stay put for now and alert the dayshift on potential need for short-lead WSW.

[so_whats_happening]

Rough guesstimate shows us between 15:1 to 20:1 ratios right now nearing 1". Boy is this gonna be a fun ride home yet again.

[Undertakerson2.0]

5 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Rough guesstimate shows us between 15:1 to 20:1 ratios right now nearing 1". Boy is this gonna be a fun ride home yet again.

Do me a favor and don't bring it back to MDT areas. I'll wait for the BigUn.  TYIA

[Undertakerson2.0]

[so_whats_happening]

1 minute ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Do me a favor and don't bring it back to MDT areas. I'll wait for the BigUn.  TYIA

Looks like the heaviest ends up just south of Harrisburg over in Lancaster we will also be close to the edge probably getting about 3-5" now instead of 2-4". Somewhere along the PA/MD border we will see 8".

Looks like BWI will be 4-6" can already start to see the zone setting up.

[Undertakerson2.0]

Showing the earlier and mostly cleaner hand off from the inland to the coast

[MaineJay]

8 hours ago, LiveWire_13 said:

Do the models indicate the norlun trough disappears abruptly once it hits the ocean? Otherwise, the angle of heavier snow through PA/NJ would indicate LI and southern CT should be hammered with 4-5", instead of the T-3" they are.

 

8 hours ago, TLChip said:

They're are typically narrow and I believe the ocean version of LES, so you need the all the ingredients. This was the best image I could find with some labels on. Maine see's these a bit more maybe one of those fellows could drop some knowledge about how far they can move and if they can sort of hop over water masses.

 

6 hours ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

Was just reading. The perennial moving target , the inverted trough, almost never moves south. Other direction. Yet this one sank to the bottom of the Atlantic. Need our resident guru, MJ, to explain that is and why this didn’t, but just remember from the single A days in the minors at the old old days of Accu-,when the LV was at ground zero 2 days ago, zero chance of that happening. It’s likeca birthday balloon that somehow survived a trip through the atmosphere. Try figuring out where that winds up.

There's a difference between an inverted trof and a Nor-Lun trof.  A Nor-Lun is inverted, but not all inverted are Nor-Lun. 

Here are the basics of a true Nor-Lun.  I've probably only experienced a handful in my life at best they are pretty rare. 

Link to the paper by the two meteorologists that identified it.

https://www.mattnoyes.net/files/norlun-1.pdf

[Undertakerson2.0]

HRRR is bumping totals for those N of the current jackpot zone (and within JP Zone) 

I imagine this is because the coastal sure looks like it's getting earlier and better injection of "joo joo" (yes, that is a meteo term - LOL) 

[Undertakerson2.0]

Edited January 19 by Undertakerson2.0

[Wtkidz]

Better than when I went to bed. It. Is nice easy storm which works for old folks like.me.

Edited January 19 by Wtkidz

[JDClapper]

Light snow, not micro flakes, but tiny.  0.5", not a terrible start.  Just need to get to 2" and I'm satisfied on this one. ha

[Wtkidz]

Radars….