Jan. 19-20th, 2024 | Winter Storm Speculation

[Rickrd]

3 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

Prob cuz you posted Holly AFD 15 freakin times.

lol. That’s when it went down. I just kept hitting save. 

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

Just now, Lazman said:

We need an oblique discussion from Doorman, with a JRenken OFM map to get the answer. 

We have to detox DM from the scars of freakin  American site. He may need 30 day grace period to cleanse from all the obnoxious dhead ego’s there. Not used to nice, funny posters that don’t think they invented weather😀

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

11 minutes ago, Rickrd said:

lol. That’s when it went down. I just kept hitting save. 

 I see, you had a finger stroke from staring at Clap’s model run comparisons for too long. Just kept hitting save button uncontrollably 😂

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

Waiting to see a new pic of Stretch climbing out of the server lab. Dusty , shirt torn, eyes bulging, hair standing straight up, looking like the one robber from Home Alone. I will let the door hit me in the arss on the way out 👍

[Rickrd]

26 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

 I see, you had a finger stroke from staring at Clap’s model run comparisons for too long. Just kept hitting save button uncontrollably 😂

Ya. Those flash screens of his cause me AGITA! Ok tho. Nothing a neat bourbon won’t take care of medicinally speaking. 

Edited January 19 by Rickrd

[Lazman]

19 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

Waiting to see a new pic of Stretch climbing out of the server lab. Dusty , shirt torn, eyes bulging, hair standing straight up, looking like the one robber from Home Alone. I will let the door hit me in the arss on the way out 👍

It was Snobal. UTS was onto something earlier..... probably Newports for the flavah!

Edited January 19 by Lazman

[Rickrd]

No idea what this guy is looking at. 

[Sentinel]

15 minutes ago, Rickrd said:

No idea what this guy is looking at. 

[so_whats_happening]

14 hours ago, Lazman said:

Temperatures would not support 18:1 ratios, no? 

Surface temps don't mean a thing for snow ratios. It is dependent in the region in where the snow forms. The most ideal snow  growth temp is around -10 to -12C. How deep that layer is and where it is collocated with the best lifting will determine ratios. 

Look for those temps around 700mb which is about the most important layer outside of 850mb temps for winter weather forecasting.

[Lazman]

22 minutes ago, Rickrd said:

No idea what this guy is looking at. 

Bernie Rayno's video.

[so_whats_happening]

It does look like this region will see the best low level convergence and mid level temps, you can start to see it setting up now. Right along the PA/MD border i really wouldn't be surprised of 6"+ stretching into Philly and central/southern jersey.

[Lazman]

6 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Surface temps don't mean a thing for snow ratios. It is dependent in the region in where the snow forms. The most ideal snow  growth temp is around -10 to -12C. How deep that layer is and where it is collocated with the best lifting will determine ratios. 

Look for those temps around 700mb which is about the most important layer outside of 850mb temps for winter weather forecasting.

Doesn't the column have to support cold air all the way down though for proper dendrite growth?

[Gettysburger]

25 minutes ago, Rickrd said:

No idea what this guy is looking at. 

He must have had to much Starbucks…

[so_whats_happening]

Just now, Lazman said:

Doesn't the column have to support cold air all the way down though for proper dendrite growth?

You could have a surface temp of 32-36 and 925mb of 28-32 and still get great dendritic growth. Now it doesn't mean as it comes down it wont melt, in that scenario you tend to get those huge globes of snow falling from the sky. The thicker the -10 to -12C region the better but as long as strong lift and those temps exist and are within the same region you get those much better ratios.

[so_whats_happening]

6 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

You could have a surface temp of 32-36 and 925mb of 28-32 and still get great dendritic growth. Now it doesn't mean as it comes down it wont melt, in that scenario you tend to get those huge globes of snow falling from the sky. The thicker the -10 to -12C region the better but as long as strong lift and those temps exist and are within the same region you get those much better ratios.

The best case scenario is having temps go isothermal through the column until about 600mb. In that case you get an extremely deep DGZ (dendritic growth zone) and things pile up rather quickly so long as there is ample moisture as well.

[Sentinel]

4 hours ago, Lazman said:

I remember reading that the first layouts of the interstate road system would include straight sections about a mile long every so many miles in order to land bombers. 

Interstates were based heavily off of Germany. There is a reason a Highway/Interstate is built up vs a surface street. The Highways were made to support mechanized machinery (ie Tanks) for warfare as well as Aircraft. When Hitler had the country building the Autobahn, it was for the mechanized units. 

4 hours ago, StretchCT said:

Do they restrict empty CMV's when it's windy?

At times 

4 hours ago, Rickrd said:

Honestly. This has got to be something new. Maybe they’re testing it? I have never seen this before when they’re calling for a 6-12” snowstorm. 

I just know that I have a business and ship out between 5 and 10 trailer loads of product everyday. This is just going to F#%k everything up for tomorrow, production included and mess thinks up for next week. Pathetic. 

 

3 hours ago, TLChip said:

Lol, I guess they could send me a truck full of metal but once it's unloaded it'd have to wait to go back to the yard.

Did we have parking lot interstates this week? I guess working in the boonies away from metro has its perks. Road's haven't been great but passable.

Actually, very plausible. The thought behind that is two fold. 1) More weight = better traction. (2) Less interruption to the economy (in theory) 

3 hours ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

This was a new invention started over a year ago, to help centralize road info and alerts- and to help with stranded trucks. Again, it is a govt operation, so there’s that. What the theory was, according to the state when they explained it to us was to pre plan so that a truck/trucker would not embark on a trip, only to find that a road was closed, etc. yes to wind conditions also. Much different with a truck  to reroute, especially late. 
ya, we think it is gross overkill, and a govt op. But, it is nice to know that something like a major thoroughfare is restricted before you leave though.

 

3 hours ago, JDClapper said:

Was that the November, I think 2018? storm?  That was a disaster.  2-5" forecast turned 9-12" reality.

 

2 hours ago, Rickrd said:

Got it. Thanks. But seems overkill for this one. 

So this was designed because Comm. Motor Vehicles (CMVs) create quit the hazard when incidents take place. 

--) They are much more likely to cause full road closures

--) Delays cause snow and ice to build up and snow plows are unavailable to transverse the interstate so as to keep it clear

--) It diverts a tremendous amount of resources to the incident, yet these resources also have trouble approaching the incident 

--) In theory, it should provide a more even stream of flow for the CMVs

--) It is meant to save lives and money 

All of that being said, the system is subjective at times and the scaling up and down of the alerts are not quite as easy as one would like. that withstanding, it does show promise. 

And yes - overkill it is more often than not. Granted, it is an intangible measure as an incident which did not take place is immeasurable. 

[Rickrd]

6 minutes ago, Uscg Ast said:

Interstates were based heavily off of Germany. There is a reason a Highway/Interstate is built up vs a surface street. The Highways were made to support mechanized machinery (ie Tanks) for warfare as well as Aircraft. When Hitler had the country building the Autobahn, it was for the mechanized units. 

At times 

 

Actually, very plausible. The thought behind that is two fold. 1) More weight = better traction. (2) Less interruption to the economy (in theory) 

 

 

So this was designed because Comm. Motor Vehicles (CMVs) create quit the hazard when incidents take place. 

--) They are much more likely to cause full road closures

--) Delays cause snow and ice to build up and snow plows are unavailable to transverse the interstate so as to keep it clear

--) It diverts a tremendous amount of resources to the incident, yet these resources also have trouble approaching the incident 

--) In theory, it should provide a more even stream of flow for the CMVs

--) It is meant to save lives and money 

All of that being said, the system is subjective at times and the scaling up and down of the alerts are not quite as easy as one would like. that withstanding, it does show promise. 

And yes - overkill it is more often than not. Granted, it is an intangible measure as an incident which did not take place is immeasurable. 

Yes. I agree. Personally and sure a lot of you have been in those situations seeing trucks off side of road, cars,etc. can really block things up. Causing more chaos and safety concerns. Adding the aspect that everyone on roads are in a hurry and speeds in snow seem like you’re crawling and being human, everyone try’s to push it a little faster. 
So once I pondered it, it’s a system to benefit. The trick always is balance and who pushes that button. Up this way, Northampton county, a 2” snowstorm wouldn’t warrant it imo. With that amount, highways and interstates will be wet at most with the assets that will be thrown at it. Subjective as you said to area wide events. 

[Herricane]

how much do you think that motor set them back?  Do they sell them on Amazon? Get well soon KDOX, I need you 🙏🏼

[Rickrd]

🤦🏼‍♂️🤦🏼‍♂️🤦🏼‍♂️

[Lazman]

27 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

You could have a surface temp of 32-36 and 925mb of 28-32 and still get great dendritic growth. Now it doesn't mean as it comes down it wont melt, in that scenario you tend to get those huge globes of snow falling from the sky. The thicker the -10 to -12C region the better but as long as strong lift and those temps exist and are within the same region you get those much better ratios.

Still a bit confused about the surface temperatures warming the column upwards. Your information has the ratio better at higher, colder air, but what precipitates out as Snowfall means the ratio of FALLING Snow versus SURFACE Snow would be higher, no? 

Are ratios determined by the HOW, but not the WHERE? 

I get the dendrite growth bit as when the air is colder at the surface you can see the sparkle of the shape of the Snow.

EITHER way I appreciate the information and opportunity to get more knowledge. Thanks. 

[Rickrd]

Any opinions on this model? Never really looked at it and it seems heavy if 15:1. 

Edited January 19 by Rickrd

[SnowloverSid]

7 hours ago, StretchCT said:

I added a unofficial terminology guide to the site for anyone who is new to some of the language we use around here.

 

Thanks for explaining the terminology— on many occasions, I was afraid to ask what something stood for because I feared that I would get the “Don’t-you-know-that” response because many of the terms were assumed knowledge. When the term “bowling ball storm” was used, about six years ago, I asked what it meant and no one seemed to know. Based on the context, I figured that it was simply a storm that changed very little in latitude while crossing the country.

[so_whats_happening]

58 minutes ago, Lazman said:

Still a bit confused about the surface temperatures warming the column upwards. Your information has the ratio better at higher, colder air, but what precipitates out as Snowfall means the ratio of FALLING Snow versus SURFACE Snow would be higher, no? 

Are ratios determined by the HOW, but not the WHERE? 

I get the dendrite growth bit as when the air is colder at the surface you can see the sparkle of the shape of the Snow.

EITHER way I appreciate the information and opportunity to get more knowledge. Thanks. 

All good.

So when I mentioned temps at the surface and 925mb in my previous post that is solely to state that temps can go as high as that but still have reasonable snow ratios above 10:1, more likely they will end up closer to 10:1 though. The NWS post is spot on and those are the most important factors to consider. The best way to describe it is there is a balance between moisture and temperature, the more moisture but warmer temp the further left you go in the snowflake chart. It can still accumulate well but you use up more moisture and that hurts the potential of maximizing snowfall output. Now when you have a scenario like we have coming up where there is less moisture available so the temps become rather important but it is the temps aloft that are the important part not at the surface. 

Surface temps are correlated to how much cold air is pressing into the region so if we have extremely cold temps aloft the surface temps will be notably colder but then we get issues of moisture availability and irregular snowflakes think micro flakes in that scenario. They fall the ground gets coated but you get hours and hours of that and maybe only accumulate 1-2". As time goes on more moisture pushes into the region from warmer areas (think of warm air advection) the upper levels warm up to a more suitable level and there is more moisture availability to allow for near perfect conditions for snow growth. If you add too much moisture we start to slide left on the scale and then get heavy wet snows but all the while this is happening surface temps could stay the same. It is aloft that matters notably from 850 to about 600mb that matters the most. 

It is a big reason why when we get coastal storms the area NW of 95 into the mountains tend to get the most snow because the balance between moisture and temps with strong lift is near perfect while closer to 95 and the Jersey shore tend to still get snow but it is an extremely heavy wet snow. Both areas may have the same amount of QPF lets use 1" as an example so Jersey and 95 corridor get 6-10" with that there snow ratios are about 6:1 to about 10:1 while areas NW get 12-16" so there ratios are more along the line of 12:1-16:1 the biggest reason the temps aloft are colder NW and get to more suitable levels for good dendritic growth. It is rather rare to stay at one specific snow ratio the whole storm though and they tend to only happen with these weaker systems that throw moisture in. 

Temps in the column of 850-700mb may only be closer to say -6 closer to 95 while NW gets closer to -10 or -12. If we start to go colder ratios go up of course but the accumulation rate tends to weaken as the flakes become irregular and the dendritic growth zone moves out of the best lifting region. Less moisture also shows up in colder temps but if lift is strong enough it can overcome that issue and still produce think clippers in that scenario. It really is a fine balance though and surface temps only play a role in moisture availability and stickage. You want low levels (surface-850mb) moist so that when your lifting mechanism gets to you there is enough moisture to produce but you don't want too much or it hurts growth potential.

Edited January 19 by so_whats_happening

[so_whats_happening]

Another important thing I wanna throw out here is snowfall intensity, this is based off of visibility. 

Heavy snow is 1/4 mile or less

Moderate snow is above a 1/4 mile but less than or equal to 5/8ths of a mile (typically shown at 1/2 mile at ASOS)

Light snow is considered above 5/8ths of a mile (typically shown 3/4 mile or above at ASOS).

 

So when you see a station reporting 3/4mile visibility this is still considered light snow. 1/2 mile gets switched to moderate snow. and 1/4 mile is heavy snow.

You tend to get snowfall rates of 1" per hour around 1/2 mile visibility and less than 1" per hour with 3/4 mile visibility. 1/4 mile and less visibility pushes you closer to 2"+ per hour rates.

This is all just from my experience of working at the airport for snowfall rates.

[so_whats_happening]

It wants to drop snow at any moment.