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Jan. 19-20th, 2024 | Winter Storm Speculation

telejunkie

By telejunkie
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Posted by so_whats_happening,

All good. So when I mentioned temps at the surface and 925mb in my previous post that is solely to state that temps can go as high as that but still have reasonable snow ratios above 10:1, more likely they will end up closer to 10:1 though. The NWS post is spot on and those are the most important factors to consider. The best way to describe it is there is a balance between moisture and temperature, the more moisture but warmer temp the further left you go in the snowflake chart. It can sti
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Posted by so_whats_happening,

Another important thing I wanna throw out here is snowfall intensity, this is based off of visibility.  Heavy snow is 1/4 mile or less Moderate snow is above a 1/4 mile but less than or equal to 5/8ths of a mile (typically shown at 1/2 mile at ASOS) Light snow is considered above 5/8ths of a mile (typically shown 3/4 mile or above at ASOS).   So when you see a station reporting 3/4mile visibility this is still considered light snow. 1/2 mile gets switched to moderate sno
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Paletitsnow63
Paletitsnow63

Hi everybody good to see you.  I know I couldn't lurk for long.  Especially after StretchCT caught me last night.  I had been thinking to join awhile back but had stuck with the other site.  I know a

stormsurf
stormsurf

Im so happy to have found you all again.   You may not remember me from the Accu days, mostly a lurker, but always enjoyed this bunch. I dont add much to the discussion, although you think I

Poco
Poco

12z cmc gfs and icon gif  sorry I can’t get too wordy in any post as some personal life hit hard this week but I’ll do my best and others can hopefully expand on this threat.    I’d start

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Phillyfan Collaborator

Phillyfan

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Penn State said:

I’m going to sound really stupid lol.. but what does NADS stand for? 

North American Dendrite System

North Atlantic Dendrite Storm 

Northeastern Antecedent Dendrite Snow

? 😂

nickel and dime storms

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Rickrd Veteran

Rickrd

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Penn State said:

I’m going to sound really stupid lol.. but what does NADS stand for? 

North American Dendrite System

North Atlantic Dendrite Storm 

Northeastern Antecedent Dendrite Snow

? 😂

Nerds Atmospherically Dumb Shitheads. 

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RobB Grand Master

RobB

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Wtkidz said:

Pretty sure most of this is virga. 
 

 

IMG_0541.gif

I've circled the area that have no current observations.  Probably where some of this is indeed virga

image.thumb.png.6e0a4bdfe026c38373198559ad95b08c.png

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Rickrd Veteran

Rickrd

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Wtkidz said:

Pretty sure most of this is virga. 
 

 

IMG_0541.gif

Not in Northampton County of PA. We have snow although very light. 

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Rickrd Veteran

Rickrd

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, RobB said:

I've circled the area that have no current observations.  Probably where some of this is indeed virga

image.thumb.png.6e0a4bdfe026c38373198559ad95b08c.png

Should ripen up atmosphere though. 

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Irish Lass Explorer

Irish Lass

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, Penn State said:

I’m going to sound really stupid lol.. but what does NADS stand for? 

North American Dendrite System

North Atlantic Dendrite Storm 

Northeastern Antecedent Dendrite Snow

? 😂

 

NADS.jpg

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Gettysburger Collaborator

Gettysburger

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, RobB said:

I've circled the area that have no current observations.  Probably where some of this is indeed virga

image.thumb.png.6e0a4bdfe026c38373198559ad95b08c.png

I can confirm virga in the Gettysburg area. We’ve had it on radar but nothing falling. 

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StretchCT Grand Master

StretchCT

Posted
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34 minutes ago, Penn State said:

I’m going to sound really stupid lol.. but what does NADS stand for? 

North American Dendrite System

North Atlantic Dendrite Storm 

Northeastern Antecedent Dendrite Snow

? 😂

I added a unofficial terminology guide to the site for anyone who is new to some of the language we use around here.

 

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Rush Proficient

Rush

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

I added a unofficial terminology guide to the site for anyone who is new to some of the language we use around here.

 

I scrolled down to read the entry for Snobal and was disappointed he didn't have his own.

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StretchCT Grand Master

StretchCT

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Rush said:

I scrolled down to read the entry for Snobal and was disappointed he didn't have his own.

There's just no way to capture the essence of Snobal in the glossary.

aka, I can't do it justice.

Edited by StretchCT
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RobB Grand Master

RobB

Posted
Posted
42 minutes ago, Rickrd said:

Should ripen up atmosphere though. 

Yep. Had the same back in my area. Virga then a quarter inch of bonus snow fell at the house. 🤘

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Psu1313 Community Regular

Psu1313

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Dr Tom said:

The second movie reference of the afternoon.  Personally, I gotta go with The Hunt for Red October, but no intention to start a movie debate here… back to your regularly scheduled NADS.

IMG_3264.gif

I won’t make it to late night tonight but that’s when the movie quotes really fly. 🍿 

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Rickrd Veteran

Rickrd

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

I added a unofficial terminology guide to the site for anyone who is new to some of the language we use around here.

 

Pretty damn good job stretch

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DanaEaves Light Breeze

DanaEaves

Posted
Posted

So I have a question 🤔 For reference I live right where Sussex county NJ dips down into Morris county. That little dip is my town. Anyway…

why does Mt Holly have us at 4-6? And models at 2-4? But most other maps I’ve seen say 1-3?

also, what the heck time is it supposed to start here? That I can’t seem to figure out. Early enough to close school? What about early enough to close school if the kids have midterms and a half day (11:45) anyway? I’m usually good at reading through and getting a good grasp on these things, but this storm has me super confused. Thanks! 

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TLChip Grand Master

TLChip

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

I added a unofficial terminology guide to the site for anyone who is new to some of the language we use around here.

 

Good read, scrolled though a bunch of it. I can’t figure out why 2016 is Dark or Black Knight either.

Snobal memes, long time known members 👍. I didn’t see mention of the clappertracker 🤣

of course lots of great weather terms that get used here all the time. 

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Doorman Collaborator

Doorman

Posted
Posted (edited)
44 minutes ago, DanaEaves said:

So I have a question 🤔 For reference I live right where Sussex county NJ dips down into Morris county. That little dip is my town. Anyway…

why does Mt Holly have us at 4-6? And models at 2-4? But most other maps I’ve seen say 1-3?

also, what the heck time is it supposed to start here? That I can’t seem to figure out. Early enough to close school? What about early enough to close school if the kids have midterms and a half day (11:45) anyway? I’m usually good at reading through and getting a good grasp on these things, but this storm has me super confused. Thanks! 

crude tracking at its best..... here we go Dana

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19#

Screenshot2024-01-18184903.thumb.png.fa7fe5d4733f5aa1ad7c04bbe1bfc8f5.pngScreenshot2024-01-18185036.thumb.png.a5f38f89307d7fe1f37369f5cc62325b.png

top image is SPC deep moisture convergence 

match it up to the low track WPC map 

1008 mb is a weak sauce inland runner

this is a very small scale event imho

dm

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TLChip Grand Master

TLChip

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, DanaEaves said:

why does Mt Holly have us at 4-6? And models at 2-4? But most other maps I’ve seen say 1-3?

 

There’s a lot of possible reasons, the promets believe something a bit different than what the models spit out will happen. News Mets will do the same, some blend models together, some favor certain models.
 

Just like different models spit out different outcomes someone has to pick which is the most likely to happen.  

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