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Jan. 19-20th, 2024 | Winter Storm Speculation

telejunkie

By telejunkie
in United States

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Posted by so_whats_happening,

All good. So when I mentioned temps at the surface and 925mb in my previous post that is solely to state that temps can go as high as that but still have reasonable snow ratios above 10:1, more likely they will end up closer to 10:1 though. The NWS post is spot on and those are the most important factors to consider. The best way to describe it is there is a balance between moisture and temperature, the more moisture but warmer temp the further left you go in the snowflake chart. It can sti
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Posted by so_whats_happening,

Another important thing I wanna throw out here is snowfall intensity, this is based off of visibility.  Heavy snow is 1/4 mile or less Moderate snow is above a 1/4 mile but less than or equal to 5/8ths of a mile (typically shown at 1/2 mile at ASOS) Light snow is considered above 5/8ths of a mile (typically shown 3/4 mile or above at ASOS).   So when you see a station reporting 3/4mile visibility this is still considered light snow. 1/2 mile gets switched to moderate sno
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Paletitsnow63
Paletitsnow63

Hi everybody good to see you.  I know I couldn't lurk for long.  Especially after StretchCT caught me last night.  I had been thinking to join awhile back but had stuck with the other site.  I know a

stormsurf
stormsurf

Im so happy to have found you all again.   You may not remember me from the Accu days, mostly a lurker, but always enjoyed this bunch. I dont add much to the discussion, although you think I

Poco
Poco

12z cmc gfs and icon gif  sorry I can’t get too wordy in any post as some personal life hit hard this week but I’ll do my best and others can hopefully expand on this threat.    I’d start

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clm Grand Master

clm

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Chris2333 said:

image.thumb.png.bb8764c4a6e1dff80608fea8e38ba530.png

that yellow right next to HI In at the end of Philadelphia I live right there. I don’t think I’ve ever been in the bullseye 
 

In that case, HI!!  🤪

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Psu1313 Community Regular

Psu1313

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Pghsnow said:

I don't watch local weather, but my wife alerted me because she asked how much we would get and I told her 3-4 max. She said locals calling for 4-8 and I didn't believe her. Well they are..

image.thumb.png.b05256332cc027f63385313e1b42493f.png

I think they are overplaying ratios. I can get there mathematically, but between lift and temps that 4-8 should be 2-5 with maybe someone getting 6. The mountains on the other hand, I think they are being sensible which makes me wonder.

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LUCC Experienced

LUCC

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Posted
1 minute ago, Chris2333 said:

image.thumb.png.bb8764c4a6e1dff80608fea8e38ba530.png

that yellow right next to the A at the end of Philadelphia I live right there. 
 

And the northern yellow you can see the red highway (I-195) which I basically live on, a mile south. Hoping this pans out but we all know how finicky winter storms are, expecting the low end of totals and hoping for the top end. 

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clm Grand Master

clm

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, kdskidoo said:

that's why they built route 80 where they did, so storms would know where to set up the dividing line.  i can't even begin to count how many times I've heard forecasts use 80 as the "dividing" line

This would explain why the Interstates are so crazy with winding and not staying straight.  It never had anything to do with county/state/town lines nor going through mountains or around mountains, lakes, rivers, etc.....  Now we know the truth!

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clm Grand Master

clm

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Posted

So going to be real fun Friday night and Saturday night.  Low of 17 tomorrow night and Saturday night low of 13.  Any melting done by salt or by the sun is going to cause issues

 

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LUCC Experienced

LUCC

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Posted
9 minutes ago, Psu1313 said:

I think they are overplaying ratios. I can get there mathematically, but between lift and temps that 4-8 should be 2-5 with maybe someone getting 6. The mountains on the other hand, I think they are being sensible which makes me wonder.

I have two words for you 'New Orlean Trough!!'

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Wtkidz Mentor

Wtkidz

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

In an odd way - that's kind of correct. 

And I-95 is always used .

ie.

west of 95 same county.

 Snow likely, mainly after 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 28. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. 
Friday
Snow likely, mainly before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Calm wind becoming northwest 5 to 9 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
 
east of 96  4 miles away. Rain is mentioned.
 
Tonight
Snow likely, mainly after 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 27. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. 
Friday
Snow likely before noon, then snow likely, possibly mixed with rain between noon and 1pm, then a chance of snow after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Calm wind becoming northwest 5 to 9 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
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Pghsnow Mentor

Pghsnow

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Rickrd said:

Boy, we have gotten soft with a minor snow event...🤪

https://www.wfmz.com/news/area/lehighvalley/penndot-pa-turnpike-imposing-restrictions-on-highways-friday-ahead-of-expected-winter-storm/article_ae711ffc-b631-11ee-8bf5-9b64f2c765e7.html

That is crazy for a couple inches of snow. On that note for my job I call on Health clubs. I called a few in Memphis yesterday and none of them answered, Couldn't figure out why. I looked at their website and they shut down for 4 days from their snow early in the week. from 4-6 inches of snow.

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Rickrd Veteran

Rickrd

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Posted
Just now, Pghsnow said:

That is crazy for a couple inches of snow. On that note for my job I call on Health clubs. I called a few in Memphis yesterday and none of them answered, Couldn't figure out why. I looked at their website and they shut down for 4 days from their snow early in the week. from 4-6 inches of snow.

WOW.

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LiveWire_13 Collaborator

LiveWire_13

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, clm said:

So going to be real fun Friday night and Saturday night.  Low of 17 tomorrow night and Saturday night low of 13.  Any melting done by salt or by the sun is going to cause issues

 

This is what I'm worried about. I was (am?) hoping that 6" mark would touch central LI so the school admin wouldn't try for something foolish like a full day or early dismissal. The area has plenty of hills and my Accord, even with the new all-around tires that carry a +1 for snow suck on the local roads and driveway when slick. This will transform into an ice rink yet again.

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Dr Tom Contributor

Dr Tom

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, Psu1313 said:

With all these NADS storms, I’m caught in a glass case of emotion!

The second movie reference of the afternoon.  Personally, I gotta go with The Hunt for Red October, but no intention to start a movie debate here… back to your regularly scheduled NADS.

IMG_3264.gif

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RTC3-LAST CHANCE Mentor

RTC3-LAST CHANCE

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, JDClapper said:

G16_conus_band10_36fr_20240118-1616.gif

Really great shot there. Luv that loop. However, please limit the real time analysis, as we much prefer fretting, sweating, and wrangling over hourly model updates changing our total snowfall amounts by 1/4 of an inch. Not sure if i personally can endure one more model adjusting the total moisture content from .28 to .265. 

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Penn State Veteran

Penn State

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I’m going to sound really stupid lol.. but what does NADS stand for? 

North American Dendrite System

North Atlantic Dendrite Storm 

Northeastern Antecedent Dendrite Snow

? 😂

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LUCC Experienced

LUCC

Posted
Posted
Just now, Penn State said:

I’m going to sound really stupid lol.. but what does NADS stand for? 

North American Dendrite System

North Atlantic Dendrite Storm 

Northeastern Antecedent Dendrite Snow

? 😂

Not A Decent Storm

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