Jan. 19-20th, 2024 | Winter Storm Speculation

[Miller A]

I am getting caught up and assume this has been posted.

 

In the real world its a downgrade to WSW, but in Weenie World I just got upgraded to WSW 

4-6"

[clm]

And now they just went back to 2 to 4.  Dang roller coaster.  

[GregRups]

25 minutes ago, GregRups said:

NAM snowfall map is stuck at hr 24 but should look better than 12z

I was way off on this. I’ll go back to IMBY posts only 🤣

 

[clm]

3 minutes ago, GregRups said:

I was way off on this. I’ll go back to IMBY posts only 🤣

 

[TLChip]

Quote

Winter Weather Advisory
for Berks County

Issued by National Weather Service
Philadelphia, PA
2:48 PM EST Thu, Jan 18, 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of central, northern and northwest New Jersey and east central, northeast and southeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 10 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures will rapidly drop into the teens late Friday night. Any untreated roads will become icy and dangerous.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

 

[clm]

I refreshed the page and back to 1 to 3.  Gotta be Johnny at the computer.

[Lazman]

Must be working those interns overtime at Der Bingle, as no update on their 3:00 pm. FD. But everything else is mentioned. What a joke.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BGM&issuedby=BGM&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

[Wtkidz]

Well did you miss me? I actually had to go into the office today. So no fun times with  weather guys.  Siri says there is.no snow for me ….. but NWS say 1 possibly 2.  
 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
227 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2024

MDZ016-018-VAZ039-040-051-055-502-527-190330-
/O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0009.240119T0900Z-240120T0000Z/
Charles-Calvert-Madison-Rappahannock-Culpeper-Stafford-
Southern Fauquier-
Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-
227 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM
EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of around an inch
  with localized amounts around 2 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Maryland and northern and
  northwest Virginia.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 7 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions will impact the Friday morning and evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on
steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery,
increasing your risk of a fall and injury.

 

[eddygeeme]

36 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

I still like the MD/DE/SNJ/SEPA area the most for this. 

850 vertical velocity 

700mb vv

With some good frontogenesis at 700mb over SNJ

And you have the -8c isotherm lined up with a little fgen there too.

It's all pretty fast though.  And the temps along the coast are marginal.  

Kuchera ratios might not be as high in my target area either. Dark red is the 12:1 line.

 

 

Yeah Bernie Rayno may have been on to something yesterday. Maybe a tad bit aggressive in totals(we'll see)but general idea of where the best chances were in the aforementioned areas.

 

What he was saying yesterday doesn't seem as off on a island as it appeared yesterday. 

Edited January 18 by eddygeeme

[Undertakerson2.0]

[clm]

1 minute ago, Wtkidz said:

Well did you miss me? I actually had to go into the office today. So no fun times with  weather guys.  Siri says there is.no snow for me ….. but NWS say 1 possibly 2.  
 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
227 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2024

MDZ016-018-VAZ039-040-051-055-502-527-190330-
/O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0009.240119T0900Z-240120T0000Z/
Charles-Calvert-Madison-Rappahannock-Culpeper-Stafford-
Southern Fauquier-
Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-
227 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM
EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of around an inch
  with localized amounts around 2 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Maryland and northern and
  northwest Virginia.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 7 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions will impact the Friday morning and evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on
steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery,
increasing your risk of a fall and injury.

 

Wait, you went into the office and did not post here?  Where are your priorities man?

[Miller A]

Holly AFD

Based on the latest model guidance, snowfall totals have increased
over the area. A stripe of 5 to 6 inches of snow with locally higher
amounts will develop across the central portion of the forecast
area, from Chester county, through Philadelphia, and across the I-
195 corridor in New Jersey. For these areas, the Winter Weather
Advisory was upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning. For Monmouth
county, now expecting in excess of 6 inches of snow, so upgraded to
a Winter Storm Warning there as well. Went ahead and added Cape May
county and the coastal strip to the Winter Weather Advisory. Although
there will be rain mixed with the snow due to easterly flow ushering
relatively warmer air off the ocean, snowfall totals have increased
to around 2 inches.

[Wtkidz]

2 minutes ago, clm said:

Wait, you went into the office and did not post here?  Where are your priorities man?

Yes cause I cannot use our wi  fi with my I pad (they monitor)and the phone is pain to post. I am old …..

 

 

[TLChip]

8 minutes ago, clm said:

Wait, you went into the office and did not post here?  Where are your priorities man?

I’m always trying to catch up when I gotta knock some stuff out on my iPad in the field 🤣. Luckily this job has me handcuffed with safety/paperwork I get to sneak away a bit. Normally I’m trying to read 10 pages in the passenger seat every afternoon. 

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

44 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Annnndddd...

CHASE!

 

 

Serious shift south in eastern parts.

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

13 minutes ago, eddygeeme said:

Yeah Bernie Rayno may have been on to something yesterday. Maybe a tad bit aggressive in totals(we'll see)but general idea of where the best chances were in the aforementioned areas.

 

What he was saying yesterday doesn't seem as off on a island as it appeared yesterday. 

Was thinking same.

[Wtkidz]

From Sterling.

 

In terms of sensible weather...
Flurries may develop as early as nightfall along and west of the
Allegheny Front, and by mid to late evening elsewhere as the column
gradually saturates with the lead wave pushing across. Accumulating
snow most likely holds off until just after midnight over the
Alleghenies, and the pre-dawn hours further east toward the metro
areas/I-95 corridor. This initial snow will be largely jet induced
as the LFQ dynamics move atop moistening low levels. The strongest
lift overlays the DGZ for a brief (1-3 hr) window east of the
mountains from just before dawn through the first half of the
morning commute. Given cold temperatures and moderate snowfall rates
which may briefly exceed 0.5 in/hr, this will likely lead to a very
slippery Friday morning commute.

From late morning into the early afternoon, the mid-level trough
axis sharpens and takes on a negative tilt overhead. This is a
period of greater uncertainty, as the exact placement of this trough
axis will dictate the placement of enhanced precipitation/snow. This
is also the period where the DGZ is at its deepest (per BUFKIT), and
the most likely time period for overperforming snowfall. Bands of
snow spawned by these types of features can be narrow but produce
much higher snowfall on a localized basis, so it bears close
monitoring. As confidence in the placement of this banding
increases, areas of northern/northeast MD may need to be upgraded to
a Winter Storm Warning. But confidence in the placement of higher
totals was a bit too low to upgrade with the Thursday afternoon
forecast package.

Lingering low-level moisture, increasing MUCAPE in the BL
(stretching up into a lowering DGZ), and lift via continued PVA
ahead of a trailing wave, could cause at least scattered snow shower
activity to linger through late Friday afternoon or later. These may
add another coating to an inch in isolated spots where snow showers
are heavier or more persistent.

Low temperatures tonight will range from around 20 over the higher
ridges of the Alleghenies, to around freezing over southern MD.
Temperatures will likely rise to or just above freezing along and
southeast of a line from near Baltimore and along the immediate
northern bay shore, across far northern VA, to the lower elevations
of the central Shenandoah Valley on Friday. Further north and west,
temperatures will hold between 25-30 degrees (20-25 mountains).

Any lingering moisture that melts during the day Friday will likely
begin to re-freeze on elevated/untreated surfaces as temperatures
fall quickly heading into Friday evening.

[clm]

3 minutes ago, TLChip said:

I’m always trying to catch up when I gotta knock some stuff out on my iPad in the field 🤣. Luckily this job has me handcuffed with safety/paperwork I get to sneak away a bit. Normally I’m trying to read 10 pages in the passenger seat every afternoon. 

Handcuffed in the passenger seat?  Then this is definitely not you.

 

[Pghsnow]

I don't watch local weather, but my wife alerted me because she asked how much we would get and I told her 3-4 max. She said locals calling for 4-8 and I didn't believe her. Well they are..

[StretchCT]

In looking back at stats, last time I had over 6" of snow was January 7, 2022 when I had 9".  Over two years.   Has to be at least back to 2021 to break double digits.

edit - 2/2/21 was the last double digit snow. So it looks like it will be going on three years.  

Edited January 18 by StretchCT

[clm]

Just now, Pghsnow said:

I don't watch local weather, but my wife alerted me because she asked how much we would get and I told her 3-4 max. She said locals calling for 4-8 and I didn't believe her. Well they are..

I hate that because are they doing that for props or was it a real forecast but then changed.

[LUCC]

🤔🤔

 

[JDClapper]

Chance of 1+, 2+ and 4+.  Updated at 3pm.

 

[clm]

This seems to be shaping up in the same way the last storm was for me.  The up and down of 1 to 3 and 2 to 4.  Only difference is no rain following this storm for me.  Though NAM 3K showing a little bit of rain just before the snow moves in and then the rain stays to the south.

[Chris2333]

that yellow right next to HI at the end of Philadelphia I live right there. I don’t think I’ve ever been in the bullseye 
 

Edited January 18 by Chris2333