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Jan. 19-20th, 2024 | Winter Storm Speculation

telejunkie

By telejunkie
in United States

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Posted by so_whats_happening,

All good. So when I mentioned temps at the surface and 925mb in my previous post that is solely to state that temps can go as high as that but still have reasonable snow ratios above 10:1, more likely they will end up closer to 10:1 though. The NWS post is spot on and those are the most important factors to consider. The best way to describe it is there is a balance between moisture and temperature, the more moisture but warmer temp the further left you go in the snowflake chart. It can sti
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Posted by so_whats_happening,

Another important thing I wanna throw out here is snowfall intensity, this is based off of visibility.  Heavy snow is 1/4 mile or less Moderate snow is above a 1/4 mile but less than or equal to 5/8ths of a mile (typically shown at 1/2 mile at ASOS) Light snow is considered above 5/8ths of a mile (typically shown 3/4 mile or above at ASOS).   So when you see a station reporting 3/4mile visibility this is still considered light snow. 1/2 mile gets switched to moderate sno
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clm Grand Master

clm

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Gettysburger said:

It’s so true lol. That storm knows not to go above it or below it depending on what the talking heads on TV say. lol 

Ever since I started on the Accuweather forum, then disco, then here, I don't listen to the talking heads on TV about the weather.  They have no theory anymore and just read from a script.

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Paletitsnow63
Paletitsnow63

Hi everybody good to see you.  I know I couldn't lurk for long.  Especially after StretchCT caught me last night.  I had been thinking to join awhile back but had stuck with the other site.  I know a

stormsurf
stormsurf

Im so happy to have found you all again.   You may not remember me from the Accu days, mostly a lurker, but always enjoyed this bunch. I dont add much to the discussion, although you think I

Poco
Poco

12z cmc gfs and icon gif  sorry I can’t get too wordy in any post as some personal life hit hard this week but I’ll do my best and others can hopefully expand on this threat.    I’d start

Posted Images

Lazman Proficient

Lazman

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Gettysburger said:

It’s so true lol. That storm knows not to go above it or below it depending on what the talking heads on TV say. lol 

Now do the Lehigh Tunnel. I triple dog dare you..... 

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Chris2333 Community Regular

Chris2333

Posted
Posted
Spoiler

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
248 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2024

DEZ001-NJZ016>019-PAZ070-071-101-102-104-106-191100-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WW.Y.0003.240119T0900Z-240120T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0002.240119T0900Z-240120T0300Z/
New Castle-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-
Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-
Eastern Montgomery-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Wilmington, Pennsville, Glassboro,
Camden, Cherry Hill, Moorestown, Mount Holly, Media,
Philadelphia, Honey Brook, Oxford, West Chester, Kennett Square,
Norristown, Lansdale, Morrisville, and Doylestown
248 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 6
inches.

* WHERE...Portions of northern Delaware, southern New Jersey and
southeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 10 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures will rapidly drop into the
teens late Friday night. Any untreated roads will become icy
and dangerous.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NJZ013-014-191100-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WW.Y.0003.240119T0900Z-240120T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0002.240119T0900Z-240120T0300Z/
Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-
Including the cities of Freehold and Sandy Hook
248 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 7
inches.

* WHERE...Western Monmouth and Eastern Monmouth.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 10 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures will rapidly drop into the
teens late Friday night. Any untreated roads will become icy and
dangerous.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NJZ020-027-191100-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WW.Y.0003.240119T0900Z-240120T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0002.240119T0900Z-240120T0300Z/
Ocean-Southeastern Burlington-
Including the cities of Jackson and Wharton State Forest
248 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6
inches. Rain will mix with snow during the day Friday near the
coasts.

* WHERE...Ocean and Southeastern Burlington.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 10 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures will rapidly drop into the
teens late Friday night. Any untreated roads will become icy
and dangerous.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NJZ023-19

Winter storm warnings have been issued in NJ (in spoilers above)

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bigben89 Rising Star

bigben89

Posted
Posted
50 minutes ago, Pghsnow said:

I was surprised it started to flurry with such weak returns over me. I expected the column to need to wet for a while. Have a nice band headed towards me. Hope it stays together.

image.thumb.png.59d1be0f019bb64211986132f0be5b3c.png

mood flakes

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Gettysburger Collaborator

Gettysburger

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, clm said:

Ever since I started on the Accuweather forum, then disco, then here, I don't listen to the talking heads on TV about the weather.  They have no theory anymore and just read from a script.

Exactly. It’s frustrating 

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Undertakerson2.0 Grand Master

Undertakerson2.0

Posted
Posted

3-4" on the update. Including consideration for UTS Hill 

..WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts on the hill tops. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 1 AM to 10 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning commute all over the region, and perhaps the evening commute in the Lower Susquehanna Valley.

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clm Grand Master

clm

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, GregRups said:

NAM snowfall map is stuck at hr 24 but should look better than 12z

They got it going again by kicking the server.  NAM moved the sweet spots in 18z and gave me lower totals.  Now if I were in the ocean east-southeast of LI, I would be getting 8 to 10.

Weather.gov reduced their totals for me from 2 to 4 to 1 to 3.

 

image.thumb.png.2e398150eeefa747b95df4fbbdeeba0a.png

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JDClapper Grand Master

JDClapper

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Nothing we can know. Models mistrust I still do. 

RAP, and now NAM showing a little nose of snow along/north of 80 in the very wee hours giving us half of those totals before like 8am. Then theres a bit of a screw zone just south of 80 and north of 76.. kinda similar to Tuesday in a way. 😮

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StretchCT Grand Master

StretchCT

Posted
  • Moderators
Posted (edited)

I still like the MD/DE/SNJ/SEPA area the most for this. 

850 vertical velocity 

floop-nam-2024011818.850hvv.us_ma.gif.d6c3c8c0b0d45ab449ca495f25bd3907.gif

700mb vv

floop-nam-2024011818.700hvv.us_ma.gif.eca7ae0edab79210703e25b59ab583da.gif

With some good frontogenesis at 700mb over SNJ

image.thumb.png.12ef769474c6d717623996be8216366b.png

And you have the -8c isotherm lined up with a little fgen there too.

image.thumb.png.22cb49d7fd5da88397ecf3784714a2d8.png

It's all pretty fast though.  And the temps along the coast are marginal.  

image.thumb.png.35ff5ac040b6c6d5fc5ff0491ea3df72.png

Kuchera ratios might not be as high in my target area either. Dark red is the 12:1 line.

image.gif.6852e40c57ada5362e827057761c661e.gif

 

 

Edited by StretchCT
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JDClapper Grand Master

JDClapper

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

HIGHLY volatile

Approach model output with extreme caution. Even the mesos are struggling. 

Indeed. I will probably wake up at 4 or something and look out the window and go from there. Lol

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TLChip Grand Master

TLChip

Posted
Posted (edited)

the doubts are intruding my brains with these models jumping everywhere. Starting to feel the bust coming north of 76. It’s been colder than model which leaves me to believe this will push south a tad.

Nowcast tomorrow morning. Half day sounds good for some afternoon fun if it snows. ☃️

well IMBY it actually hit the temp, up in hometown it’s been 4 degrees below the high so far today. 

Edited by TLChip
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Pghsnow Mentor

Pghsnow

Posted
Posted (edited)
29 minutes ago, bigben89 said:

mood flakes

Picked up about 1/4 inch. Just flurries now.

Edited by Pghsnow
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Undertakerson2.0 Grand Master

Undertakerson2.0

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, JDClapper said:

Indeed. I will probably wake up at 4 or something and look out the window and go from there. Lol

Yeah - we know it's NADS for most. So all else is guessing who gets jackpot from yet unseen forcing and/or where the IT sets up, IF it sets up, 

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clm Grand Master

clm

Posted
Posted

 

So they finally issued an advisory for my area.

  

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
313 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2024

NYZ078>081-177-179-191000-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0003.240119T1400Z-240120T0200Z/
Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-
Southeast Suffolk-Northern Nassau-Southern Nassau-
313 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 3
  inches.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast New York.

* WHEN...From 9 AM to 9 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions will likely impact the Friday evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/nyc
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