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Jan. 19-20th, 2024 | Winter Storm Speculation


telejunkie

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10 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Please tell me there's a Snobal post along these lines Stretch. 

image.png.3a1b1d6dd1221543ea4229d1e9e95bdb.png

Edited by StretchCT
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21 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

More than simply temps affect ratios, there is also at least one other element (vertical velocity especially within the DGZ) also factors in. So I'm not gonna argue the pro's point on that. 

Also, the just coming in GFS certainly seems to indicate a more concise handoff. This likely bodes well for anyone who thought CTP may land in dry slot ville

Still head scratcher imo. Usually flatliner tracks don’t lend themselves to clean transfers. Not sure if the relative slow movement is helping.

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Hmmm, tomorrow will be interesting nowcast it seems. Seeing a lot of different flavor maps popping up. What’s baby G doing? 

Edited by TLChip
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36 minutes ago, Lazman said:

Temperatures would not support 18:1 ratios, no? 

Kuchera ratio for hr 30 in EPA

image.thumb.png.3cf03c480b131fe8726559bac29d202b.png 

Skew for around Hazelton. Nice wide and low DGZ.  Not a ton of flakes.  I think it's higher than the 13:1 that Kuchera factors in. 

image.thumb.png.7370f200f3c8d7494bbfaa6bb10a923d.png

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2 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

 I was hoping for a more riparian connection but I know you're not on your A game past couple days so it'll have to do

Make me look up riparian....

Yeah, I've been busy.

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If theres one thing I have learned over the years, is many times your best forecasts are 48 to 24 hours out. When I start letting late game model fluctuations get in my head and leave a previous thought, it rarely worked out and I look back in hindsight like damn, 2 days out that was the best idea.

Ok, back to lunch. 😄

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12 minutes ago, longislander said:

Forecast for LI is now 3-6, much higher than previously forecast.  I had an appointment tomorrow, I may not be able to get there now.

Oh? Tito’s in the morning? I get it. 😜

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13 minutes ago, longislander said:

Forecast for LI is now 3-6, much higher than previously forecast.  I had an appointment tomorrow, I may not be able to get there now.

Who is forecasting 3 to 6?  

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3 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Kuchera ratio for hr 30 in EPA

image.thumb.png.3cf03c480b131fe8726559bac29d202b.png 

Skew for around Hazelton. Nice wide and low DGZ.  Not a ton of flakes.  I think it's higher than the 13:1 that Kuchera factors in. 

image.thumb.png.7370f200f3c8d7494bbfaa6bb10a923d.png

WHO knew ratio data came in map form? Wow. Awesome stuff. 

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23 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

And the sea shall grant all men new hope

Knew I recognized that quote… great movie. I’m assuming that’s the reference, but of course maybe Columbus was quoted in some of those self-help books you’ve been reading.

IMG_3263.jpeg

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1 minute ago, clm said:

The 3 HRW models say about 2 or 3 inches.

NAM 3K says 1.7

RRFS says 1.7

HRRR says 3

SREF says 3

🤪

Blend it! Haha

For mby, 2" is a "win" in my books. OVER 3" is jackpot. Under 2" would be a disappointment, but at least it snowed.

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