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Jan. 19-20th, 2024 | Winter Storm Speculation

telejunkie

By telejunkie
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Posted by so_whats_happening,

All good. So when I mentioned temps at the surface and 925mb in my previous post that is solely to state that temps can go as high as that but still have reasonable snow ratios above 10:1, more likely they will end up closer to 10:1 though. The NWS post is spot on and those are the most important factors to consider. The best way to describe it is there is a balance between moisture and temperature, the more moisture but warmer temp the further left you go in the snowflake chart. It can sti
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Posted by so_whats_happening,

Another important thing I wanna throw out here is snowfall intensity, this is based off of visibility.  Heavy snow is 1/4 mile or less Moderate snow is above a 1/4 mile but less than or equal to 5/8ths of a mile (typically shown at 1/2 mile at ASOS) Light snow is considered above 5/8ths of a mile (typically shown 3/4 mile or above at ASOS).   So when you see a station reporting 3/4mile visibility this is still considered light snow. 1/2 mile gets switched to moderate sno
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Paletitsnow63
Paletitsnow63

Hi everybody good to see you.  I know I couldn't lurk for long.  Especially after StretchCT caught me last night.  I had been thinking to join awhile back but had stuck with the other site.  I know a

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Im so happy to have found you all again.   You may not remember me from the Accu days, mostly a lurker, but always enjoyed this bunch. I dont add much to the discussion, although you think I

Poco
Poco

12z cmc gfs and icon gif  sorry I can’t get too wordy in any post as some personal life hit hard this week but I’ll do my best and others can hopefully expand on this threat.    I’d start

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RTC3-LAST CHANCE Mentor

RTC3-LAST CHANCE

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

If I still went to the trouble of issuing snow guess maps, I'd put a "low confidence" label on it. 

Yea head scratcher again. For 2 days models were targeting LV , now some are moving sweet spot towards Philly and east. Not sure if it is still the moving target It, or models sensing more coastal involvement. Temps dropping a little, but ocean still warmish .

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clm Grand Master

clm

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2 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

Yea head scratcher again. For 2 days models were targeting LV , now some are moving sweet spot towards Philly and east. Not sure if it is still the moving target It, or models sensing more coastal involvement. Temps dropping a little, but ocean still warmish .

Its the gulf stream that keeps LI warmer than it should be in the winter.  Really messes with snowstorms though.  Makes it very irritating for snow lovers.

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Undertakerson2.0 Grand Master

Undertakerson2.0

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6 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

Yea head scratcher again. For 2 days models were targeting LV , now some are moving sweet spot towards Philly and east. Not sure if it is still the moving target It, or models sensing more coastal involvement. Temps dropping a little, but ocean still warmish .

some are now sweet spotting So Lancaster and just East of me. That is why I think the handoff has to be different than before - no CTP snowdome which would come from a slow or late handoff as the shortwave swings in from the OH vly. 

Between that timing, and the potential IT influence, it's hard to be high end confident

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Undertakerson2.0 Grand Master

Undertakerson2.0

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Posted (edited)

Main change for this late morning update is to nudge snowfall totals up slightly in the SErn zones. NAM continues to place a (second?) band of good lift and instability aloft over the Lower Susq in the aftn hrs. The SLRs also are progged to get higher (up to 18:1) thru the day there. So, even keeping the QPF the same would support a slight bump of an inch. The 00Z HREF also supports a bump for the higher elevs of Northumberland/Columbia Cos with the higher probs of 1"+ rates there in mid-day. Additionally there would be a little upslope with a N wind there. So, that may be a tweak to make with a later update - which could necessitate expanding the advy into there. But, we`d like to see the 12Z HREF and GFS which have just started to arrive before making those types of changes. - CTP

Dang model huggers (haha) 

To my eye, they are mentioning the IT without using the term 

Edited by Undertakerson2.0
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Penn State Veteran

Penn State

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This is probably irrelevant.. but on radar (granted it's the composite), you can see some light returns in eastern PA. Any chance this may be indicative of where the trough sets up?

Screenshot2024-01-18at10_26_38AM.thumb.png.9d26a40d0ca33af4b13dc93fe155586f.png

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RTC3-LAST CHANCE Mentor

RTC3-LAST CHANCE

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15 minutes ago, clm said:

Its the gulf stream that keeps LI warmer than it should be in the winter.  Really messes with snowstorms though.  Makes it very irritating for snow lovers.

Yes, nice point there. Air temps factor in, but yea that current really effects. Summers are like the Pythagorean Theory trying to figure out why the water temps are warm or cold.

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Lazman Proficient

Lazman

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Main change for this late morning update is to nudge snowfall totals up slightly in the SErn zones. NAM continues to place a (second?) band of good lift and instability aloft over the Lower Susq in the aftn hrs. The SLRs also are progged to get higher (up to 18:1) thru the day there. So, even keeping the QPF the same would support a slight bump of an inch. The 00Z HREF also supports a bump for the higher elevs of Northumberland/Columbia Cos with the higher probs of 1"+ rates there in mid-day. Additionally there would be a little upslope with a N wind there. So, that may be a tweak to make with a later update - which could necessitate expanding the advy into there. But, we`d like to see the 12Z HREF and GFS which have just started to arrive before making those types of changes. - CTP

Dang model huggers (haha) 

Temperatures would not support 18:1 ratios, no? 

Screenshot_20240118-103016.png

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Lazman Proficient

Lazman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Rickrd said:

Just for the record in the thread since all info is relevant. Issued last night 1/17/24 at 10:45 pm

IMG_8737.jpeg

That's ONE BIG TROUGH in Pa. Dude must feel for Iggles fans losing. 

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Phillyfan Collaborator

Phillyfan

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Posted
1 minute ago, Rickrd said:

Just for the record in the thread since all info is relevant. Issued last night 1/17/24 at 10:45 pm

IMG_8737.jpeg

He posted a little bit ago with big changes coming to that map.

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Undertakerson2.0 Grand Master

Undertakerson2.0

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1 minute ago, Lazman said:

Temperatures would not support 18:1 ratios, no? 

More than simply temps affect ratios, there is also at least one other element (vertical velocity especially within the DGZ) also factors in. So I'm not gonna argue the pro's point on that. 

Also, the just coming in GFS certainly seems to indicate a more concise handoff. This likely bodes well for anyone who thought CTP may land in dry slot ville

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Rickrd Veteran

Rickrd

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6 minutes ago, Lazman said:

That's ONE BIG TROUGH in Pa. Dude must feel for Iggles fans losing. 

Yes he did. He also stated:

"If these snow rates actually materialize the next updated snow map will probably have 6 inches into a good portion of Central and southern NJ  Again I am worried about the snow ratios producing amounts closer to 8 inches portions of  eastern PA  including Lehigh Valley and the Philly Metro area."

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Lazman

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Please tell me there's a Snobal post along these lines Stretch. 

The best I could do on such short notice. 

9Hr6.gif

Basement-Dweller-thumb-1.jpg

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