Jan. 19-20th, 2024 | Winter Storm Speculation

[bigben89]

2 hours ago, Pghsnow said:

Going to try and make it to Seven Springs tomorrow morning for the fresh stuff!

[Undertakerson2.0]

...Ohio Valley through Southern New England...
Days 1-2...

A strong and fast moving shortwave trough currently moving into
the northern Rockies this morning will track across the Plains
today before amplifying as it moves into the Ohio Valley by Friday
morning. A developing jet streak on the periphery of the longwave
trough will increase to over 150 kts at 250 mb, positioned the
region in the favored left exit region. A surface low is expected
to organize over the Ohio Valley then intensify as it races off
the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coast Friday into Friday evening.
The combination of the height falls, large scale forcing for
ascent, and the developing surface wave should provide enough
forcing/lift to work with the available moisture to produce
widespread light to moderate amounts of precipitation across the
region. The trend in the latest guidance is for slightly stronger
forcing along portions of the Mid-Atlantic coast (eastern PA
through NJ).

The moderate snowfall is supported by both the deep DGZ in place
due to the very cold airmass that remains in the region and it
should remain quite cold ahead of the approaching system despite
some warm air advection today into tonight. This will support
slightly higher than climatology snow to liquid ratios (generally
13-16:1) and will produce efficient/fluffy snow. Secondly, as the
system pulls away Friday, an inverted trough developing
west/northwest of the low center will enhance/linger forcing for
ascent back across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and may produce
localized/narrow higher snow amounts. This is where the latest WPC
snow probabilities for 4 inches are up to 30-40 percent, though
the heaviest snowfall from this event is expected in the WV
Appalachians where upslope flow will contribute additional ascent
to wring out moisture, and here, WPC probabilities are above 90%
for 4 inches, and locally as much as 8-12 inches could fall.

[Anthonyweather]

The latest 3k RRFS keeps mainly a non event for most aside from a narrow band from Lehigh valley and points east. 

[Undertakerson2.0]

SREF trends - slo mo for old dudes...like me. 

 

[Anthonyweather]

6 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

SREF trends - slo mo for old dudes...like me. 

 

Hmmm LV jackpot coming?

 

im not even gonna bother forecasting the trough. 2-4 with lollipops to 6 if trough develops over us

[Undertakerson2.0]

Just now, Anthonyweather said:

Hmmm LV jackpot coming?

 

im not even gonna bother forecasting the trough. 2-4 with lollipops to 6 if trough develops over us

Prudent. Those damned ITs can be here, there, nowhere come reality time. 

I do think you're in a great spot if one does develop 

[Anthonyweather]

1 minute ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Prudent. Those damned ITs can be here, there, nowhere come reality time. 

I do think you're in a great spot if one does develop 

Still on 3z on weather bell

 

but add in the 15:1, and those 4” numbers are 6”

[Undertakerson2.0]

Blue area seems to have expanded

 

[MaineJay]

7 hours ago, Doorman said:

blame  rickrd

for  hunting me down.........and aging backwards tonight  🤪

Best to all the gang here

Delaware ripple   .....less filling...LMAO

@Rickrd was caught on a game cam. 

[Burr]

Morning update from Mt Holly

 

 

Edited January 18 by Burr

[NEPAsnow]

I will take the 5" the 6Z Nam is showing for Wayne county,pa ( NEPA)

[Rickrd]

1 hour ago, MaineJay said:

@Rickrd was caught on a game cam. 

Haha. Yup  

Edited January 18 by Rickrd

[LUCC]

I like this:

[LUCC]

 

[TheComet]

Take your model of choice and hug it to death. That's the approach I'm following this morning 🙂 This will be a nowcasting situation.

[LUCC]

Wow, complete run of HRRR! That small dark purple dot right in the middle of NJ is directly over Casa de LUCC. 😎

Edited January 18 by LUCC

[George Acton]

Wow HRRR liking Northern MD for now.

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=PHI&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

[bigben89]

Sucks it will be all washed away next week... thru the end of January temps look warm...

[LUCC]

1 minute ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=PHI&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

An error occurred while processing your request.

Reference #102.c91c2117.1705585702.58f4206

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

Holly just talking all dirty to me. Filthy. Dendritic caused a full melt.

[clm]

2 minutes ago, LUCC said:

An error occurred while processing your request.

Reference #102.c91c2117.1705585702.58f4206

You're not alone.  Intermittently their site keeps returning 503 service unavailable.  I get that when even putting in my zip code for the weather in my area.  Or clicking on any of the radar or other stuff.

[Jacksonjeff]

8 minutes ago, LUCC said:

Wow, complete run of HRRR! That small dark purple dot right in the middle of NJ is directly over Casa de LUCC. 😎

We are finally back to being the snow capitol again.  Lol

[stormsurf]

Im so happy to have found you all again.  

You may not remember me from the Accu days, mostly a lurker, but always enjoyed this bunch.

I dont add much to the discussion, although you think I would have learned more over the years 😜....mostly just zingers here and there.

Glad to be back and around so much weather knowledge....the boards I have tried were super BORING.  

[LUCC]

3 minutes ago, stormsurf said:

Im so happy to have found you all again.  

You may not remember me from the Accu days, mostly a lurker, but always enjoyed this bunch.

I dont add much to the discussion, although you think I would have learned more over the years 😜....mostly just zingers here and there.

Glad to be back and around so much weather knowledge....the boards I have tried were super BORING.  

Welcome back, I am mostly here to learn, wishcast and post model output. 😎