Jan. 19-20th, 2024 | Winter Storm Speculation

[eddygeeme]

2 hours ago, StretchCT said:

Looking at upper level support, there's a jet streak coming through.  If I recall, you want to be in the left front or right rear quadrant. That the jet streak is so far south lends me to think the heavier precip is to the south.  

  

Yup that's exactly what Bernie was saying earlier. He stated he's going to trust the upper levels everyday. So he's not out off the range in that thinking. He see's thats where the energy will be and the best chance for lift/enhancement.. Philly/Dover Back thru Balt/DC and just east of Pittsburgh. 

 

We shall see, but AccuWeather hasn't budged from a 4-8 inch call for North Central Maryland as of just about midnight. We'll see in the morning if they keep sticking to their logic.

 

Edited January 18 by eddygeeme

[so_whats_happening]

9 minutes ago, clm said:

We rarely are the main impact region compared to the number of storms that come through here.  A few storms here and there, but mainly north and west of the city

Yea being at long island is tough you either get smacked and no else does (besides maybe coastal Mass and RI) or like you said it happens to be NW of the city. These sort norlun trough like features are always tough to forecast and you are either in it or you aren't. This one however looks to have too much pressing from the SE Canada energy to allow for a more up the coast look so a west to east move is the best way to look at it for now. 

The energy just doesn't move much north of the mason-dixon line so generally a 1-3" maybe 2-4 in NYC and LI region seems reasonable for now. Although we have seen changes even 24 hours out so we may just have to wait until 12z tomorrow..

[clm]

5 hours ago, Wtkidz said:

You can throw darts at this if you like. 
 

AccuWeather prediction. I am sure it will change  ]but they will claim how accurate they were.

 

 

 

[Lazman]

Great to see someone opened the Door for Doorman to get in here! If he needs a profile picture, here's one that's appropo. Welcome back my friend to the show that never ends!

 

PS: in the old AccuWeather forums I was known as HarleighHal. As for the picture, if you know, you know. 

Edited January 18 by Lazman

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

5 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Yea being at long island is tough you either get smacked and no else does (besides maybe coastal Mass and RI) or like you said it happens to be NW of the city. These sort norlun trough like features are always tough to forecast and you are either in it or you aren't. This one however looks to have too much pressing from the SE Canada energy to allow for a more up the coast look so a west to east move is the best way to look at it for now. 

The energy just doesn't move much north of the mason-dixon line so generally a 1-3" maybe 2-4 in NYC and LI region seems reasonable for now. Although we have seen changes even 24 hours out so we may just have to wait until 12z tomorrow..

Yea that hasn’t been the norm with the last 2, as the press from above has eased.

[clm]

7 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Yea being at long island is tough you either get smacked and no else does (besides maybe coastal Mass and RI) or like you said it happens to be NW of the city. These sort norlun trough like features are always tough to forecast and you are either in it or you aren't. This one however looks to have too much pressing from the SE Canada energy to allow for a more up the coast look so a west to east move is the best way to look at it for now. 

The energy just doesn't move much north of the mason-dixon line so generally a 1-3" maybe 2-4 in NYC and LI region seems reasonable for now. Although we have seen changes even 24 hours out so we may just have to wait until 12z tomorrow..

 

Yep and mostly we miss out and get rain or mainly get the mix which is a mess.  Give me all snow or all rain.  

Compared to when I was a kid, we'd get more snow than rain in the winter.

That 528 offensive line is holding back the rain.  Many a times the Center and Guards get overpowered and the devensive line comes over me.

[clm]

2 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

Yea that hasn’t been the norm with the last 2, as the press from above has eased.

This last one, no.  But the one before it did and we got all rain and 40's instead.

[so_whats_happening]

3 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

Yea that hasn’t been the norm with the last 2, as the press from above has eased.

Gotta love the progression of the NAO influence on this region.

[so_whats_happening]

Euro slightly enhances precip amounts but holds steady across the area, in fact it is a little further south than most others. Widespread .15-.3" QPF spotty areas of .3-.4" showing up so we could see a nice 3-5" event across the area from the Euro with spotty 6"+.

If somehow we get up to 20:1 ratios might be fun across the area but 12:1-15:1 seems the most reasonable right now.

Edited January 18 by so_whats_happening

[Sentinel]

2 hours ago, Doorman said:

Decaying inland runner...🏈 as legit as the Iggles???

cue the Eminem 8-rack

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Welcome old friend

[Pghsnow]

[Pghsnow]

Edited January 18 by Pghsnow

[Pghsnow]

[Pghsnow]

[Undertakerson2.0]

8 hours ago, Chris2333 said:

What are we planet fitness now 

Not really. I was telling a lie anyway. I'm always silently judging each one of you. Then I loudly judge myself - only my cats can hear me though. 

8 hours ago, Rickrd said:

For you newbies. Follow the -8 C isotherm at 850 mb. Where that usually falls is your best snowfall. 

Geez, you and Rick-C must be takin on line classes or something

8 hours ago, clm said:

Just your house only?  Hoarding the snow from your neighbors?  🤪

More importantly - can I send mine to his house. Does Amazon do that or is it Door Dash?

7 hours ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

Again, i don’t think there is any product out there that is going to nail all areas accurately, especially with as much area as PA is and all the topography, but if it can do a good job at overall moisture availability, that sure seems to help the big picture. I just know that if it is puking out 2/10,’s of an inch pretty much everywhere, it will more than likely turn out to be a nothingburger.

Yep - Luke Altavindo of the New Delhi office is ready and willing. 

6 hours ago, JDClapper said:

Looked like it too!  More please.

Yeah - I'm good with one and done. It's what most people expect from me anymore anyway.

6 hours ago, Burr said:

And sun angle

This is an overnight event to start with so Moon Angle also has to be factored in. Luckily, it's first quarter

6 hours ago, StretchCT said:

And many of us are at the coldest time of year this week.  Soon the average temps start going up.  

Yes, please

6 hours ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

That’s why I enjoy Ut ‘s thoughts , for the most part, lol. He said chaos would rule right up till ground zero. And lookie.

That loon? He barely remembers what day it is since he retired.... Oh wait.

5 hours ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

Well, either he is going to score a coup, or really wrong. And he has not been good at all last couple years.

I never quite caught onto being "Berned" He's like HM with even more waffles. 

5 hours ago, Doorman said:

Decaying inland runner...🏈 as legit as the Iggles???

cue the Eminem 8-rack

  Hide contents

 

The venerable Tommy-E is once again our guest. It's getting to be like a damned old timers game* in here.  (*sponsored by Geritol and Sominex) 

Edited January 18 by Undertakerson2.0

[Undertakerson2.0]

8 minutes ago, Pghsnow said:

If Pgh is upping their totals - makes me suspect I'll be in the CTP S-crew zone due to the handoff. 

[Undertakerson2.0]

2 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

If Pgh is upping their totals - makes me suspect I'll be in the CTP S-crew zone due to the handoff. 

Color me shocked - STUNNED I tell ya

The Hand-off snow hole. Seen it many a time.

Question is, am I so lucky as to actually be there? Something is telling me to believe it...maybe it's just my wishful thinking? 

[Rickrd]

Morning. 
 03z SREF 10:1

Edited January 18 by Rickrd

[Undertakerson2.0]

Just now, Rickrd said:

Morning. 
 03z SREF

The CTP Transfer Snow Hole versus the Fickle Finger of Fate poking in via the Inverted Trough. A battle for the ages. 

[Rickrd]

Mt Holly. 

[Rickrd]

3 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

The CTP Transfer Snow Hole versus the Fickle Finger of Fate poking in via the Inverted Trough. A battle for the ages. 

Ya. I’m only expecting 3”. We shall see. These things tough to forecast I’m reading. 
but NWS here upped their expectations. 

Edited January 18 by Rickrd

[Undertakerson2.0]

5 minutes ago, Rickrd said:

Ya. I’m only expecting 3”. We shall see. These things tough to forecast I’m reading. 
but NWS here upped their expectations. 

Well the one good thing about these NWS Clown Maps is that if you don't like the one they post - check back in 90 minutes or so and they will post a replacement. The one before this was posted around 3. <_<

[Undertakerson2.0]

 

NADS - as we've suspected 

Still enough to sate the durned snow freaks* among us I suppose (*term of affection)

 

 

[JDClapper]

My wish came true! haha .. 2-4" here we come.

 

[lvnbraves]

According to Accuweather, same chance of getting less than 1 in as getting 6-10 inches...14%.  This is gonna be fun or sad.