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Jan. 19-20th, 2024 | Winter Storm Speculation

telejunkie

By telejunkie
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Posted by so_whats_happening,

All good. So when I mentioned temps at the surface and 925mb in my previous post that is solely to state that temps can go as high as that but still have reasonable snow ratios above 10:1, more likely they will end up closer to 10:1 though. The NWS post is spot on and those are the most important factors to consider. The best way to describe it is there is a balance between moisture and temperature, the more moisture but warmer temp the further left you go in the snowflake chart. It can sti
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Posted by so_whats_happening,

Another important thing I wanna throw out here is snowfall intensity, this is based off of visibility.  Heavy snow is 1/4 mile or less Moderate snow is above a 1/4 mile but less than or equal to 5/8ths of a mile (typically shown at 1/2 mile at ASOS) Light snow is considered above 5/8ths of a mile (typically shown 3/4 mile or above at ASOS).   So when you see a station reporting 3/4mile visibility this is still considered light snow. 1/2 mile gets switched to moderate sno
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DanaEaves Light Breeze

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10 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

Sometimes we make sense 😀😀

Wait, what? Is this Fridays storm? Why so much? Lolol! I mean this would be amazing bc it would totally close school up here and I have 2 kids who are grossly underprepared for their midterm exams that begin Friday 😬 I don’t want to get their hopes up though! Lol

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so_whats_happening Veteran

so_whats_happening

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22 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

Again, i don’t think there is any product out there that is going to nail all areas accurately, especially with as much area as PA is and all the topography, but if it can do a good job at overall moisture availability, that sure seems to help the big picture. I just know that if it is puking out 2/10,’s of an inch pretty much everywhere, it will more than likely turn out to be a nothingburger.

I can guarantee there will never be a product that gets it accurately as much as we try to push for accuracy (probably never in our lifetime). Still think the area from about allentown to just north of baltimore will end up being the jackpot zone. Poconos/ NW NJ may luck out with extremely high ratio snow totals that will make it look like an expansive bullseye if you will but the bulk of the energy is situated far enough south that Philly and the suburbs NW of it probably reap the most benefit of DGZ and moisture amount.

Not to say NYC/LI wont get something but don't see them being the main impact region.

Ill edit to add that the area that probably experiences the surprise factor is eastern LI. The storm could produce rather well for them.

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StretchCT Grand Master

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18 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Looks like it did bad on the southern edge of precip. Makes me think it probably is struggling again with this. 

Yeah, not sure why BWI to DCA got more snow. Either colder than expected or more qpf than expected. Probably could find a qpf map somewhere.  Eh, nah.

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so_whats_happening Veteran

so_whats_happening

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Just now, StretchCT said:

Yeah, not sure why BWI to DCA got more snow. Either colder than expected or more qpf than expected. Probably could find a qpf map somewhere.  Eh, nah.

Using our very rudimentary way of figuring out SLR we look to have been about 12:1. Had about .4" of QPF as snow and ended up with about 4.5-5" in the region.

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StretchCT Grand Master

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Looking at upper level support, there's a jet streak coming through.  If I recall, you want to be in the left front or right rear quadrant. That the jet streak is so far south lends me to think the heavier precip is to the south.  image.thumb.png.6c1d37279a1e02395c01c47366e42449.png

  

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