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Jan. 19-20th, 2024 | Winter Storm Speculation

telejunkie

By telejunkie
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Posted by so_whats_happening,

All good. So when I mentioned temps at the surface and 925mb in my previous post that is solely to state that temps can go as high as that but still have reasonable snow ratios above 10:1, more likely they will end up closer to 10:1 though. The NWS post is spot on and those are the most important factors to consider. The best way to describe it is there is a balance between moisture and temperature, the more moisture but warmer temp the further left you go in the snowflake chart. It can sti
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Posted by so_whats_happening,

Another important thing I wanna throw out here is snowfall intensity, this is based off of visibility.  Heavy snow is 1/4 mile or less Moderate snow is above a 1/4 mile but less than or equal to 5/8ths of a mile (typically shown at 1/2 mile at ASOS) Light snow is considered above 5/8ths of a mile (typically shown 3/4 mile or above at ASOS).   So when you see a station reporting 3/4mile visibility this is still considered light snow. 1/2 mile gets switched to moderate sno
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Paletitsnow63
Paletitsnow63

Hi everybody good to see you.  I know I couldn't lurk for long.  Especially after StretchCT caught me last night.  I had been thinking to join awhile back but had stuck with the other site.  I know a

stormsurf
stormsurf

Im so happy to have found you all again.   You may not remember me from the Accu days, mostly a lurker, but always enjoyed this bunch. I dont add much to the discussion, although you think I

Poco
Poco

12z cmc gfs and icon gif  sorry I can’t get too wordy in any post as some personal life hit hard this week but I’ll do my best and others can hopefully expand on this threat.    I’d start

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RTC3-LAST CHANCE Mentor

RTC3-LAST CHANCE

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10 minutes ago, Rickrd said:

And this is 10:1 ????

lol. Party baby! Break out the Bourbon!

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IMG_8726.png

Was just going to comment on the ratios. This is the week for big ratios. Miss Holly has Pocs at 20:1, and we ain’t far behind that. So even 3/10’s of an inch, which ain’t exactly flash flood levels, and you have yourself wsw amounts.

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JDClapper Grand Master

JDClapper

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2 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

Was just going to comment on the ratios. This is the week for big ratios. Miss Holly has Pocs at 20:1, and we ain’t far behind that. So even 3/10’s of an inch, which ain’t exactly flash flood levels, and you have yourself wsw amounts.

 

sn10_acc-mean-imp.us_ne.png

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JDClapper Grand Master

JDClapper

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Just now, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

Ouch Clap. What am i missing? That sure would indicate some high amounts when you factor in high ratios.

As much as we have been kind of ignoring GFS/Euro since the last event.. I dunno, I think not having them "on board" gives pause.  IMO

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StretchCT Grand Master

StretchCT

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My favorite aspect of this event.

Screenshot2024-01-17at8_30_33PM.thumb.png.348396dda94cd675d813819a76af6ef2.png

You have to go to Belmar before you get this Screenshot2024-01-17at8_31_52PM.thumb.png.526e9aa05f84a561526a6e2d552f2601.png

 

And Harrisonburg VA before you get this... which isnt even that bad.

Screenshot2024-01-17at8_33_44PM.thumb.png.dd2c98f0ab6d694b47f039ee52f721e0.png

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JDClapper Grand Master

JDClapper

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Just now, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

SREF’s been doing ok overall, haven’t they??

They weren't terrible with the last one I don't think.  The 5-6" lolli north of here wasn't really on any particular model's radar, and southern PA seemed to underperform.  Always surprises I guess.

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RTC3-LAST CHANCE Mentor

RTC3-LAST CHANCE

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Just now, JDClapper said:

They weren't terrible with the last one I don't think.  The 5-6" lolli north of here wasn't really on any particular model's radar, and southern PA seemed to underperform.  Always surprises I guess.

I like seeing them to see what general moisture content is available for a storm, even if it doesn’t always get the where’s exact. It seems to do pretty well overall with that aspect, no?

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JDClapper Grand Master

JDClapper

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Just now, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

I like seeing them to see what general moisture content is available for a storm, even if it doesn’t always get the where’s exact. It seems to do pretty well overall with that aspect, no?

Ah, I see what you're saying.  Right .. and those 0.5, -0.6" qpf means, with +10:1 ratios, where it actually sets up.. 6-8" event.  Yeah.

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StretchCT Grand Master

StretchCT

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6 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

SREF’s been doing ok overall, haven’t they??

SREF 48 hours before the end of the last event. Keep in mind its 10:1 so the northern parts would have more snow as they had better ratio

image.thumb.png.870331aa27d934e4ec7c78ef1d2a9127.png

Screenshot2024-01-17at8_44_55PM.thumb.png.6a38af05b9b4bcb6f77ea879811daadc.png

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Rickrd Veteran

Rickrd

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11 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

As much as we have been kind of ignoring GFS/Euro since the last event.. I dunno, I think not having them "on board" gives pause.  IMO

 

IMG_8729.gif

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JDClapper Grand Master

JDClapper

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2 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

SREF 48 hours before the end of the last event. Keep in mind its 10:1 so the northern parts would have more snow as they had better ratio

image.thumb.png.870331aa27d934e4ec7c78ef1d2a9127.png

Screenshot2024-01-17at8_44_55PM.thumb.png.6a38af05b9b4bcb6f77ea879811daadc.png

On the spot verification!

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Rickrd Veteran

Rickrd

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5 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

SREF 48 hours before the end of the last event. Keep in mind its 10:1 so the northern parts would have more snow as they had better ratio

image.thumb.png.870331aa27d934e4ec7c78ef1d2a9127.png

Screenshot2024-01-17at8_44_55PM.thumb.png.6a38af05b9b4bcb6f77ea879811daadc.png

That actually was pretty close here in Northampton cty. 3.5” here. 

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JDClapper Grand Master

JDClapper

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1 minute ago, Rickrd said:

That actually was pretty close here in Northampton cty. 3.5” here. 

SCPA did better than I thought I remember reading.  Yeah, def not bad for the most part.

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so_whats_happening Veteran

so_whats_happening

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6 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

SREF 48 hours before the end of the last event. Keep in mind its 10:1 so the northern parts would have more snow as they had better ratio

image.thumb.png.870331aa27d934e4ec7c78ef1d2a9127.png

Screenshot2024-01-17at8_44_55PM.thumb.png.6a38af05b9b4bcb6f77ea879811daadc.png

Looks like it did bad on the southern edge of precip. Makes me think it probably is struggling again with this. 

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JDClapper Grand Master

JDClapper

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13 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

Ah, I see what you're saying.  Right .. and those 0.5, -0.6" qpf means, with +10:1 ratios, where it actually sets up.. 6-8" event.  Yeah.

Uh oh

sn10_acc-mean-imp.us_ne.png

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RTC3-LAST CHANCE Mentor

RTC3-LAST CHANCE

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1 minute ago, so_whats_happening said:

Looks like it did bad on the southern edge of precip. Makes me think it probably is struggling again with this. 

Again, i don’t think there is any product out there that is going to nail all areas accurately, especially with as much area as PA is and all the topography, but if it can do a good job at overall moisture availability, that sure seems to help the big picture. I just know that if it is puking out 2/10,’s of an inch pretty much everywhere, it will more than likely turn out to be a nothingburger.

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