Jan. 19-20th, 2024 | Winter Storm Speculation

[Undertakerson2.0]

1 minute ago, Pghsnow said:

Rarely see this model get posted. 

The protype experimental slated to replace HRRR I believe. 

Don't we have enough to sift through? (lol) 

[Undertakerson2.0]

1 minute ago, clm said:

I've never known any kid to say "I don't want a snow day, I want to go to school!"

My wifes' Aunt, according to Grandma. Wife's sister was typical, her Aunt was not. 

[RobB]

1 minute ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

The protype experimental slated to replace HRRR I believe. 

Don't we have enough to sift through? (lol) 

What?! No CFS run? 😜

[NotInKansasAnymore]

2 minutes ago, clm said:

I've never known any kid to say "I don't want a snow day, I want to go to school!"

LOL - it's the parents that don't want the snow day! 

[Lazman]

2 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

So is it "content" (as in satisfied and happy) or Con-tent (as in full of information) ?  Either way, I love the double entendre. 

As I pondered your question, I got sidetracked. But since I see the moisture transport being mostly a product of midlevels and not surface influences, I'd have to think it won't affect it much. Definitely, the thermal gradient sets up the baroclinic zones that the storm love to traverse - yet the mid to uppers are almost always cold (at least relatively) and as such they are less influential as to the PWAT/QPF aspects. Thus why I think any influence would not be sufficient to affect the outcome in any large manner. 

This storm suffers from two things: lack of digging and forward speed - both conspire to keep it low end. 

Thanks for the verbal diarrhea. You had me content at Con-Tent. 

[Undertakerson2.0]

Just now, RobB said:

What?! No CFS run? 😜

I'm tempted to post Arpege. Sacre Bleu!

[Undertakerson2.0]

The Professor kinda held ground, but greatly shafted the coastal plain S of PA. It doesn't have much as is, a couple inches. 

Thinking this will definitely come down to T-zero to get. We know there will be some qpf but not a lot, we know it will be cold, Literally has to come via the dynamics involved with how the coastal forms and takes over. 

IOW - Luke Altavindo (of the Mozambique office) will be on duty. 

[JDClapper]

Just now, Undertakerson2.0 said:

The Professor kinda held ground, but greatly shafted the coastal plain S of PA. It doesn't have much as is, a couple inches. 

Thinking this will definitely come down to T-zero to get. We know there will be some qpf but not a lot, we know it will be cold, Literally has to come via the dynamics involved with how the coastal forms and takes over. 

IOW - Luke Altavindo (of the Mozambique office) will be on duty. 

Haha, was gettimg ready to post this! 10:1, probably low for this event.

[Wtkidz]

[JDClapper]

Gonna be another long day of 1/4" per hr rates for many of us.. maybe a 0.5"/hr hiccup here and there. But, snow. 🙂

[LUCC]

2 minutes ago, Wtkidz said:

Taking this verbatim, looking at a 20+hr event for CNJ. 

[TLChip]

1 minute ago, JDClapper said:

Gonna be another long day of 1/4" per hr rates for many of us.. maybe a 0.5"/hr hiccup here and there. But, snow. 🙂

Cold and snow is better than sunny torch weather imo. I’ll take dustings but prefer a big one of course. 

Is it me or is the sky darker blue the colder it gets. 

[clm]

1 minute ago, TLChip said:

Cold and snow is better than sunny torch weather imo. I’ll take dustings but prefer a big one of course. 

Is it me or is the sky darker blue the colder it gets. 

Either you are wearing those blue colored glasses, or its because there are less particles and moisture in the atmosphere.  

That is why I use my telescope much more in colder weather than warmer weather

[Wtkidz]

2 minutes ago, TLChip said:

Cold and snow is better than sunny torch weather imo. I’ll take dustings but prefer a big one of course. 

Is it me or is the sky darker blue the colder it gets. 

Always  humidity lower and no haze. 

[TLChip]

1 minute ago, clm said:

less particles and moisture in the atmosphere.  

 

 

1 minute ago, Wtkidz said:

Always  humidity lower and no haze. 

I just always assumed something on those paths but never looked it up or asked before. Love the cold days with snow cover and that dark blue sky. Blue bird days I believe is the term I hear from hikers and such. 

[Miller A]

31 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

So is it "content" (as in satisfied and happy) or Con-tent (as in full of information) ?  Either way, I love the double entendre. 

As I pondered your question, I got sidetracked. But since I see the moisture transport being mostly a product of midlevels and not surface influences, I'd have to think it won't affect it much. Definitely, the thermal gradient sets up the baroclinic zones that the storm love to traverse - yet the mid to uppers are almost always cold (at least relatively) and as such they are less influential as to the PWAT/QPF aspects. Thus why I think any influence would not be sufficient to affect the outcome in any large manner. 

This storm suffers from two things: lack of digging and forward speed - both conspire to keep it low end. 

Didnt even see that.  I took it as CON-tent, but the juxtaposition of cranky to now con-TENT is probably the logical intent  (is that IN-tent or in-TENT?) LOL

[Rickrd]

WPC

[Undertakerson2.0]

It that green dot in NJ anywhere near Lucc's house? 

[LUCC]

1 minute ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

It that green dot in NJ anywhere near Lucc's house? 

👀

[Undertakerson2.0]

1 minute ago, LUCC said:

👀

I'll take that as a yes

LMBO

[Undertakerson2.0]

RTC's girl Holly is all over this situation - I bolded salient points within the spoiler

Spoiler

Most guidance suggest that shortwave will initiate a coastal low off the Carolinas late Thursday, that heads east-northeast off Cape Hatteras by Friday morning. Meanwhile, a much stronger shortwave will be tracking quickly east-southeastward from the northern Plains early Thursday, to the Mid-Atlantic on Friday. As it does so, some degree of phasing with the cold upper-trough dropping southward across the Great Lakes occurs. Just how much phasing and resulting amplification occurs is key for determining how much snow we might see on Friday.

If the initial shortwave and surface low dominates and keeps the stronger thermal gradient and baroclinic zone shifting offshore to our southeast, while the better upper-level dynamics are `playing catch-up`, we may only see several hours of light snow with perhaps an inch or so. If the stronger shortwave can amplify and back the flow near the coast to allow a surface low to hold closer to the coast, and increase frontogenetic forcing for a time on Friday, then several inches of snowfall will be possible.

Southern portions of the Delmarva to the NJ shore may have some questionable temperatures at least Friday morning that may keep the precipitation as rain or wet snow, but just inland should be all snow otherwise. Given the thermal profiles and forecast soundings, the better forcing may be lined up with the dendritic growth zone, which would support some higher snow ratios in the 12-15:1 range, at least away from the immediate coast.

We`ll see how the guidance shifts over the next 24 hours, but we may need to consider issuing advisories for Friday within the next few forecast shifts. Otherwise that system will be a quick mover, with the bulk of any snow falling during the daytime hours on Friday and ending early Friday evening, followed by a very cold night, with wind chills possibly nearing or even dropping below 0F.

 

[Herricane]

This is just my OCD but can we add 'Northeast' and 'Mid-Atlantic' tags to this thread headline?

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

Just now, Undertakerson2.0 said:

RTC's girl Holly is all over this situation - I bolded salient points within the spoiler

  Hide contents

Most guidance suggest that shortwave will initiate a coastal low off the Carolinas late Thursday, that heads east-northeast off Cape Hatteras by Friday morning. Meanwhile, a much stronger shortwave will be tracking quickly east-southeastward from the northern Plains early Thursday, to the Mid-Atlantic on Friday. As it does so, some degree of phasing with the cold upper-trough dropping southward across the Great Lakes occurs. Just how much phasing and resulting amplification occurs is key for determining how much snow we might see on Friday.

If the initial shortwave and surface low dominates and keeps the stronger thermal gradient and baroclinic zone shifting offshore to our southeast, while the better upper-level dynamics are `playing catch-up`, we may only see several hours of light snow with perhaps an inch or so. If the stronger shortwave can amplify and back the flow near the coast to allow a surface low to hold closer to the coast, and increase frontogenetic forcing for a time on Friday, then several inches of snowfall will be possible.

Southern portions of the Delmarva to the NJ shore may have some questionable temperatures at least Friday morning that may keep the precipitation as rain or wet snow, but just inland should be all snow otherwise. Given the thermal profiles and forecast soundings, the better forcing may be lined up with the dendritic growth zone, which would support some higher snow ratios in the 12-15:1 range, at least away from the immediate coast.

We`ll see how the guidance shifts over the next 24 hours, but we may need to consider issuing advisories for Friday within the next few forecast shifts. Otherwise that system will be a quick mover, with the bulk of any snow falling during the daytime hours on Friday and ending early Friday evening, followed by a very cold night, with wind chills possibly nearing or even dropping below 0F.

 

She done great there! All depends on the author.

[Miller A]

40 minutes ago, LUCC said:

Taking this verbatim, looking at a 20+hr event for CNJ. 

yes, and the frame by frame took almost as long, and I like the slower slides, actually

 

yesterdays 2.5 froze up at about 1.5 inches.  hoping to "pile on" Friday and tentatively have taken the day off to enjoy, barring something stupid

 

And I'm the voice of the Weather Hotline at work now, too, unrelated to Wx interests.  Ant trust me, my voice is not a pleasant thing to have to wake up to at 6am 

[LUCC]

5 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

I'll take that as a yes

LMBO

Don't jinx me!!! 🤬