Jan. 19-20th, 2024 | Winter Storm Speculation

[LUCC]

22 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

Luv watching these type of storms. We get snow, but man this is so close to something bigger.

Hoping for some surprises, there always are, just depends on where and no one knows.

[Undertakerson2.0]

Baby-G not so enthused this run. 

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

8 minutes ago, LUCC said:

Hoping for some surprises, there always are, just depends on where and no one knows.

Seems with this one you are closer to a surprise. 

[Undertakerson2.0]

NAVGEM shifted East the past two runs. Not a good sign. 

Again though, very complex with three pieces having to mesh. 

[telejunkie]

Decent tilt....just not a lotta dig on RGEM

[Rickrd]

15 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

NAVGEM shifted East the past two runs. Not a good sign. 

Again though, very complex with three pieces having to mesh. 

 

[JDClapper]

So as UTS would say, "In the main", the idea is still a general widespread 1-4" with some higher lollipops. 

Wiggles and waggles.

[telejunkie]

25 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

NAVGEM shifted East the past two runs. Not a good sign. 

Again though, very complex with three pieces having to mesh. 

Looks like the German model agrees and storm doesn't get drawn back to the coast. Personally sticking with the higher rez models...for now at least....

[StretchCT]

NBS

[Lazman]

6 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

NBS

I'll take my nickel and like it, dagnabit. NADS all Winter long. 

[Pghsnow]

For those in SW Pa, here was a Pgh Met response to me: 2-4" seems like a very solid bet for SW PA on Friday. I would currently pin the ceiling for us at 5-6" if you get better banding, or if models are underestimating the impact of elevation enhancement. 

[NotInKansasAnymore]

SREF Plumes around me in NJ  jumped from ~2" to 4+"...my kids are already talking about another snow day possibility after no school Mon and Tues and a delayed opening today! Happy Winter!

[Undertakerson2.0]

To me, this will come down to just when the hand off takes place - always gonna be a "screw zone" in such situations. Even if it's early and clean, it will s-crew the Southern folks most via overwhelming mid level warm. If it's really late, the s-crew zone is closer to my part of CTP as it dumps on the Alleghenies then dries until it whacks the piedmont. 

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

Amazing how this one and the last 2 all had completely different setups and issues, and all were modeled to be bigger events early on. May lend credence to what UT been saying about better chances for biggins in Feb. For moi, it’s all about blocking. Needs to be in the proper position, and stays. When i start hearing about relying on stuff like negative tilt, i immediately look north. 
However, 3 storms in a week that may total over a foot here is a bonus from what was thought awhile ago.

[Undertakerson2.0]

1 minute ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

Amazing how this one and the last 2 all had completely different setups and issues, and all were modeled to be bigger events early on. May lend credence to what UT been saying about better chances for biggins in Feb. For moi, it’s all about blocking. Needs to be in the proper position, and stays. When i start hearing about relying on stuff like negative tilt, i immediately look north. 
However, 3 storms in a week that may total over a foot here is a bonus from what was thought awhile ago.

When did you become so sage? 

I was just thinking earlier though how well we've done in spite of the thinking just two and a half weeks ago.

[Lazman]

FYI - If you remember CrankyWxGuy I believe he's back on TwitX. Now goes by @ContentWxGuy Always liked his nebulous posts because it made me dig for more information. Thus my post about how much will the cold down in the Gulf Coast affect the moisture tap for Thursday night. 

Here he's alluding to SSTs and which gradient the coastal low pressure would follow, but he fails to give the answer..... 

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

Just now, Undertakerson2.0 said:

When did you become so sage? 

I was just thinking earlier though how well we've done in spite of the thinking just two and a half weeks ago.

Self help and awareness books😀

[Undertakerson2.0]

How 12z GFS "sees" the handoff. Ideally, it would happen prior to this frame and that would help the coastal deliver more oomph. 

[GregRups]

2 minutes ago, Lazman said:

FYI - If you remember CrankyWxGuy I believe he's back on TwitX. Now goes by @ContentWxGuy Always liked his nebulous posts because it made me dig for more information. Thus my post about how much will the cold down in the Gulf Coast affect the moisture tap for Thursday night. 

Here he's alluding to SSTs and which gradient the coastal low pressure would follow, but he fails to give the answer..... 

Hes a nice technical guy to follow. Really breaks it down but you need a good sense of the weather in order to fully understand what hes saying. I struggle with that sometimes. 

[Undertakerson2.0]

3 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

Self help and awareness books😀

[clm]

30 minutes ago, Lazman said:

I'll take my nickel and like it, dagnabit. NADS all Winter long. 

Nickel?  Keep in mind inflation has raised that.

[Pghsnow]

Rarely see this model get posted. 

[Undertakerson2.0]

4 minutes ago, Lazman said:

FYI - If you remember CrankyWxGuy I believe he's back on TwitX. Now goes by @ContentWxGuy Always liked his nebulous posts because it made me dig for more information. Thus my post about how much will the cold down in the Gulf Coast affect the moisture tap for Thursday night. 

Here he's alluding to SSTs and which gradient the coastal low pressure would follow, but he fails to give the answer..... 

So is it "content" (as in satisfied and happy) or Con-tent (as in full of information) ?  Either way, I love the double entendre. 

As I pondered your question, I got sidetracked. But since I see the moisture transport being mostly a product of midlevels and not surface influences, I'd have to think it won't affect it much. Definitely, the thermal gradient sets up the baroclinic zones that the storm love to traverse - yet the mid to uppers are almost always cold (at least relatively) and as such they are less influential as to the PWAT/QPF aspects. Thus why I think any influence would not be sufficient to affect the outcome in any large manner. 

This storm suffers from two things: lack of digging and forward speed - both conspire to keep it low end. 

[clm]

20 minutes ago, NotInKansasAnymore said:

SREF Plumes around me in NJ  jumped from ~2" to 4+"...my kids are already talking about another snow day possibility after no school Mon and Tues and a delayed opening today! Happy Winter!

I've never known any kid to say "I don't want a snow day, I want to go to school!"

[Lazman]

1 minute ago, Pghsnow said:

Rarely see this model get posted. 

Snow breeds Snow dead on with this.