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Jan. 19-20th, 2024 | Winter Storm Speculation

telejunkie

By telejunkie
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Posted by so_whats_happening,

All good. So when I mentioned temps at the surface and 925mb in my previous post that is solely to state that temps can go as high as that but still have reasonable snow ratios above 10:1, more likely they will end up closer to 10:1 though. The NWS post is spot on and those are the most important factors to consider. The best way to describe it is there is a balance between moisture and temperature, the more moisture but warmer temp the further left you go in the snowflake chart. It can sti
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Posted by so_whats_happening,

Another important thing I wanna throw out here is snowfall intensity, this is based off of visibility.  Heavy snow is 1/4 mile or less Moderate snow is above a 1/4 mile but less than or equal to 5/8ths of a mile (typically shown at 1/2 mile at ASOS) Light snow is considered above 5/8ths of a mile (typically shown 3/4 mile or above at ASOS).   So when you see a station reporting 3/4mile visibility this is still considered light snow. 1/2 mile gets switched to moderate sno
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so_whats_happening Veteran

so_whats_happening

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Just now, JDClapper said:

nam3km_z500_vort_us_fh24-48.gif

3km seems less grabby compared to the 12km counterpart. That would make the difference for a general 3-6" event to pushing those upper levels (6-8") for the areas I mentioned.

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Hi everybody good to see you.  I know I couldn't lurk for long.  Especially after StretchCT caught me last night.  I had been thinking to join awhile back but had stuck with the other site.  I know a

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Im so happy to have found you all again.   You may not remember me from the Accu days, mostly a lurker, but always enjoyed this bunch. I dont add much to the discussion, although you think I

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12z cmc gfs and icon gif  sorry I can’t get too wordy in any post as some personal life hit hard this week but I’ll do my best and others can hopefully expand on this threat.    I’d start

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so_whats_happening Veteran

so_whats_happening

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Probably the best thing out of the last system and this one looks to be the fluff factor. Have been so tired of getting heavy wet snow it is nice to see a change up in that department. I think my area (Lancaster) stands to get about 2-4". I mentioned to my mom who lives NW of philly they need to watch out for a potential 6"+ storm. Better to be prepared than have an unexpected larger snowfall.

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so_whats_happening Veteran

so_whats_happening

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2 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

.3 at 1.5 = 4.5 inches. At 2.0 it is 6 inches. .4 at 1.5 is 6, .4 at 2.0 is 8. Then you have to % that whole equation by .8333334 , cuz of that whole 10/12 thang. Is that right, huh ?

You forgot to carry the 1

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so_whats_happening Veteran

so_whats_happening

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9 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

floop-nam-2024011800.700th.us_ne.gif.fd1e338be49f3c7211c34b7066203b6b.gif

I would say region wide most should expect a 12:1 ratio event, little closer to 10:1 around philly and NJ. Poconos could get to upwards of 20:1 with that look but probably will average 15:1 based on those temps. If the energy comes in a bit stronger this may change up.

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Burr Grand Master

Burr

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6 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

.3 at 1.5 = 4.5 inches. At 2.0 it is 6 inches. .4 at 1.5 is 6, .4 at 2.0 is 8. Then you have to % that whole equation by .8333334 , cuz of that whole 10/12 thang. Is that right, huh ?

And sun angle

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Burr Grand Master

Burr

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Just now, so_whats_happening said:

damn forgot about that one getting to that time of year again lol

I can’t pull one on you!  Sun angle not a factor til next week at the earliest!  🤣

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so_whats_happening Veteran

so_whats_happening

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3 minutes ago, WeatherFlash said:

This week finally feels like a bonafide PA winter 

It has been awhile. BWI finally broke the snow drought (over 700 days without an inch of snow) now if we could just get to average totals I will call it a complete win for this winter.

Sitting at about 7" on the year thus far and hope we get a surprise with this one.

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Gettysburger Collaborator

Gettysburger

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46 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Looking at upper level support, there's a jet streak coming through.  If I recall, you want to be in the left front or right rear quadrant. That the jet streak is so far south lends me to think the heavier precip is to the south.  image.thumb.png.6c1d37279a1e02395c01c47366e42449.png

  

Isn’t that kinda what Bernie was saying in his video today? 

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StretchCT Grand Master

StretchCT

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21 minutes ago, Burr said:

And sun angle

And many of us are at the coldest time of year this week.  Soon the average temps start going up.  

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Snowadelphia Community Regular

Snowadelphia

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1 minute ago, Gettysburger said:

Isn’t that kinda what Bernie was saying in his video today? 

Yep. That was essentially the argument. We are only 24 hours out at this point.

Side note for folks that were on the other site until it closed last month. So did he essentially send out a ton of invoices this fall/summer to get folks to pay for server access for all of 2024, claim 2024 was fully paid for outside of a quick holiday “break”, then essentially go off the grid? What a wild end to that place man.

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mikered30 Light Breeze

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2 minutes ago, Snowadelphia said:

Yep. That was essentially the argument. We are only 24 hours out at this point.

Side note for folks that were on the other site until it closed last month. So did he essentially send out a ton of invoices this fall/summer to get folks to pay for server access for all of 2024, claim 2024 was fully paid for outside of a quick holiday “break”, then essentially go off the grid? What a wild end to that place man.

Thats pretty crazy, took the money and ran?

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JDClapper Grand Master

JDClapper

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3 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

Yea that’s north with the higher, wtf

A good old fashioned Nowcast event.  Wouldn't have it any other way!  Models giving clues on what to look for, when and where, but we'll see Friday 🙂

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JDClapper Grand Master

JDClapper

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5 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

Yea that’s north with the higher, wtf

Your comment about widespread 0.2's and potential nothingburger ... RGEM raises a flag.

 

sn10_acc-mean-imp.us_ne.png

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RTC3-LAST CHANCE Mentor

RTC3-LAST CHANCE

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1 minute ago, JDClapper said:

A good old fashioned Nowcast event.  Wouldn't have it any other way!  Models giving clues on what to look for, when and where, but we'll see Friday 🙂

 

Just now, JDClapper said:

Your comment about widespread 0.2's and potential nothingburger ... RGEM raises a flag.

 

sn10_acc-mean-imp.us_ne.png

Sure does. Wow.

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Gettysburger Collaborator

Gettysburger

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2 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

A good old fashioned Nowcast event.  Wouldn't have it any other way!  Models giving clues on what to look for, when and where, but we'll see Friday 🙂

Models are just that, models. They give us an idea of what may happen. Some are pretty close, others are way off. I agree with you, nowcasting will be our best bet I think. Looking forward to tracking this one as it comes in! 
 

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