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Jan. 19-20th, 2024 | Winter Storm Speculation


telejunkie

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1 hour ago, Poco said:

sorry I can’t get too wordy in any post as some personal life hit hard this week but I’ll do my best and others can hopefully expand on this threat.

Prayers to you and your family Poc! 🙏🏻

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bundle of energy #1 circled in blue, bundle #2 in green, with confluence over top in purple currently pushing energy east. If bundle #2 can catch up to #1 more quickly, we could see a more organized SLP that can overcome that confluence, allowing to come further north. The next couple model cycles will be telling...

Screenshot 2024-01-16 at 1.11.13 PM.png

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3 minutes ago, telejunkie said:

bundle of energy #1 circled in blue, bundle #2 in green, with confluence over top in purple currently pushing energy east. If bundle #2 can catch up to #1 more quickly, we could see a more organized SLP that can overcome that confluence, allowing to come further north. The next couple model cycles will be telling...

Screenshot 2024-01-16 at 1.11.13 PM.png

 

models-2024011612-f066.500hv.conus.gif

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11 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

 

models-2024011612-f066.500hv.conus.gif

bundle #2 comes ashore along the west coast in the next 24 hours....so hopefully should have a better sense by 12z runs tomorrow.

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23 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

StretchCT, remind the folks who won today's storm at 72 hour lead time. 

 

 

models-2024011612-f084.sn10_024h-imp.us_ma.gif

15z SREF moved the jackpot stripe from PA/NY border to NY-Southern New England.. so much more north than these op runs, makes you scatch your head ..

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1 hour ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

StretchCT, remind the folks who won today's storm at 72 hour lead time. 

 

 

models-2024011612-f084.sn10_024h-imp.us_ma.gif

Well, it wasn't the Euro or GFS.

GEM 

Spoiler

image.thumb.png.ba0ebac4cd948b0cc49b08135ca65685.png

image.thumb.png.38936840e7ba5fc2a1ca18f533c6b013.png

Or ICON should get it for globals

Spoiler

image.thumb.png.c74d2700a73babb3e91c8794d973dbe1.png

image.thumb.png.c55c71e017934ba9353a021c4f073475.png


  Screenshot2024-01-16at2_06_00PM.thumb.png.8d26a3cb19ad11a17a7bbbf80a0ed05d.png

But on the meso level, RGEM.  Heck it almost nailed the pressure

image.thumb.png.4f5a2e343c14244d31ed14d93c4707e8.png

Edited by StretchCT
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9 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

60-80%

Overnight low - Teens

Ugh, Spring please...

 

image.thumb.png.76820dd7eea7ec77fbc97168fb5ad422.png

Im not used to seeing such confident wording in a forecast 🤣 is this real life?

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2 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

If anyone doesn’t mind, i have a funeral in Philly Friday morn that i really should attend. What is a rough start time for this one if it materializes?

Around 7 am friday morning. per NAMBINO

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4 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

If anyone doesn’t mind, i have a funeral in Philly Friday morn that i really should attend. What is a rough start time for this one if it materializes?

Late Thursday night

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s/w looks decent at hr69 on 18z NAM for it to make a turn...but confluence squashes it. Still a nice storm for central Apps and Philly!

Screenshot 2024-01-16 at 3.43.26 PM.png

Screenshot 2024-01-16 at 3.50.24 PM.png

Edited by telejunkie
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